PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS def shifted north...I still think it will adjust a bit further north in time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 There are small white bubbles forming in the corners of my mouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 LAF over to Columbus, OH does very well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Why do I have an uneasy feeling the north course correction isn't done yet. I hope I am not too far south come Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Definitely a shift north by the GFS over northern IL and eastern IA. At least it wouldn't be a whiff here anymore if that worked out. The width of this snow band being forecast by the models is very impressive for late March. You'd think at this late in the season we'd have more of a thread the needle type of narrow band to try to wrestle with. At least the coverage of this snow swath should be relatively "spread the wealth" for late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I wouldn't lock in anything yet with these model changes ongoing. The NAM still dumps big snow on Kansas, but the GFS just took a big chunk away from Kansas, and both have added a dumping to IN/OH. There is some tricky energy interaction. I want to see tomorrow's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 I wouldn't lock in anything yet with these model changes ongoing. The NAM still dumps big snow on Kansas, but the GFS just took a big chunk away from Kansas, and both have added a dumping to IN/OH. There is some tricky energy interaction. I want to see tomorrow's runs. Yeah, this time tomorrow night we'll still be about 30+hrs away from the main event from here points east. Still time for more tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 White Easter?? Looking like that for someone........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 00z UK also looking good if you live in IN/OH... really wrapping up a good storm over there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Not sure what to think of DVN's evening disco now. The 00z GGEM just went a little southeast and took out most snow for Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Interesting disco update from DVN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL947 PM CDT THU MAR 21 2013.UPDATE...REGARDING THE WEEKEND SYSTEM. THE FRONT PORTION OF THE ENERGY ISNOW ONSHORE AND ENOUGH TO SAY THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SNOWFURTHER NORTH THAN MOST SOLUTIONS THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE NAMONLY TAKES A PERCENTAGE OF THE DIFFERENCE. MORE LIKELY THEOTHER LATER SOLUTIONS SUCH AS ECMWF AND GFS WILL BE MORE ACCURATE.KEY POINT IS WE WILL SEE SNOW THIS WEEKEND. THE AMOUNTS AND AREASWILL TAKE MORE TIME.CONFIDENCE IS MODERATELY HIGH TO HIGH...PER NUMEROUS TOOLS ANDTECHNIQUES OF SNOW OVER MOST/ALL THE REGION. I am fairly certain the models all initialize conditions with 00Z or 12z Data with the launch of the global network of weather balloon's data. So not really sure why this guy thinks the Euro or GFS would have "newer" data than the nam. So it sounds like a big case of :weenie: :weenie: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GFS def shifted north...I still think it will adjust a bit further north in time... Perhaps Roger Smith was right. Toronto now sees,flurries as per the latest GFS... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 22, 2013 Author Share Posted March 22, 2013 Not sure what to think of DVN's evening disco now. The 00z GGEM just went a little southeast and took out most snow for Iowa. Ukie looks pretty far southeast to me too with the low way down in KY. Wouldn't think we'd get much with a low that far south. Places like STL, LAF, and most of OH still looking golden to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Likely an I-70 special, wouldn't discount warning snows making their way up to I-80/MI-IN-OH border though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minnesota Meso Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Gem pretty much holds serve with its 12z run. At 0z on the 25th they both had the circulation at the same spot. The difference is that the 12z run was again having problems with convective feedback with produced a stronger system with two much precip on the nw side of the storm, the 0z run is a better depiction of reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Likely an I-70 special, wouldn't discount warning snows making their way up to I-80/MI-IN-OH border though. This. TILL i see models tracking the surface low NORTH of the river as it passes Indiana ( Thus across IN and not KY ) there is ZERO to get excited about if you live north of say LAF/FWA and especially north of I80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GGEM snowfall water eq in cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 euro surface track near identical to 12z run. Heavier QPF stays further south and thus less QPF towards the northern end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrad08 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GGEM snowfall water eq in cm. LMAO... that equates to almost 20inches on the S. IN/OH border... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chuckster2013 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 LMAO... that equates to almost 20inches on the S. IN/OH border...Bring it on! Haven't had a big snow since December. Just hope I' m not too far south.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sidewinder Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Bring it on! Haven't had a big snow since December. Just hope I' m not too far south.... It will be a memorable event to end winter on if this is the last. Temps look to be cold enough to keep the white stuff around for the next week too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PatrickSumner Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IND staying conservative...calling 3-5 along I70 corridor. ILN much more bullish taking about 6-12 in northern/northwestern forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 6z NAM coming in more amped, stronger wave, more ridging out ahead of it, further north. 5-8" for northeast IL LAF buried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 IAZ076>078-087>089-098-099-ILZ024>026-034-035-MOZ009-010-221700-/O.NEW.KDVN.WS.A.0007.130324T0500Z-130325T0000Z/KEOKUK-WASHINGTON-LOUISA-JEFFERSON-HENRY IA-DES MOINES-VAN BUREN-LEE-MERCER-HENDERSON-WARREN-HANCOCK-MCDONOUGH-SCOTLAND-CLARK-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SIGOURNEY...WASHINGTON...WAPELLO... FAIRFIELD...MOUNT PLEASANT...BURLINGTON...KEOSAUQUA.... FORT MADISON...ALEDO...OQUAWKA...MONMOUTH...CARTHAGE...MACOMB... MEMPHIS...KAHOKA 346 AM CDT FRI MAR 22 2013...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.* TIMING...AFTER SUNSET SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.* WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME DRIFTING SNOW ESPECIALLY IN RURAL AND OPEN AREAS.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.* IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED ROADS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...AND/OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT WOULD SERIOUSLY IMPACT TRAVEL. MONITOR LATER FORECASTS FOR UPDATES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 6z NAM coming in more amped, stronger wave, more ridging out ahead of it, further north. 5-8" for northeast IL LAF buried USA_ASNOWIPER_sfc_084.gif Would be nice to see the other models follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 0/6z NAM differences at 500mb vort valid 12z Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 DVN sounds like an entire new band STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW THE WEEKEND STORM WILL COMETOGETHER GIVEN CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES OF INTERACTION /POTENTIALPHASING/ OF ENERGY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID MOST SOLUTIONSTRENDING TOWARD SOME INTERACTION AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT LIKEFUJIWARA AS DIGGING UPSTREAM ENERGY ACTS TO SLINGSHOT EJECTINGLEAD ENERGY. MORNING ANALYSIS AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MOSTPLAUSIBLE TO RESULT IN SYSTEM COMING EVEN A BIT MORE NORTHWARDTHAN MOST MODELS SHOW. BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THATMUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATINGSNOWFALL SAT NGT THROUGH SUN NGT. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING ANDMOISTURE SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH THESOUTH HALF BEING MOST FAVORED ATTIM. BASED ON THIS AND ALSOAFTER COORDINATION WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TOISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF AREA SOUTH OF I-80 SAT NGTUNTIL SUN EVE. AS MENTIONED... STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITHTHE DEGREE OF INTERACTION OF ENERGY PACKETS WHICH RESULTS INUNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. IF WERE TOSEE MORE INTERACTION/PHASING AS SUGGESTED THEN EXPECT SYSTEM TOCOME NORTHWARD A BIT MORE... WHICH IN TURN WOULD NECESSITATENORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO HEADLINES. IN ADDITION... MOREPHASING WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY LONGDURATION SNOWFALL THAT COULD LINGER WELL INTO MON AS SLOWINGOF SYSTEM OVERALL SUGGESTIVE OF 36 + HRS OF LIGHT SNOW WITHABOUT 18+ HR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POTENTIALGENERALLY HIGHLIGHTED IN TIMING OF WATCH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 DVN sounds like an entire new band STILL UNCERTAINTY WITH JUST HOW THE WEEKEND STORM WILL COME TOGETHER GIVEN CONTINUED COMPLEXITIES OF INTERACTION /POTENTIAL PHASING/ OF ENERGY. HOWEVER...THAT BEING SAID MOST SOLUTIONS TRENDING TOWARD SOME INTERACTION AND POTENTIALLY SOMEWHAT LIKE FUJIWARA AS DIGGING UPSTREAM ENERGY ACTS TO SLINGSHOT EJECTING LEAD ENERGY. MORNING ANALYSIS AND MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST MOST PLAUSIBLE TO RESULT IN SYSTEM COMING EVEN A BIT MORE NORTHWARD THAN MOST MODELS SHOW. BOTTOM LINE...CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT MUCH IF NOT ALL OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA WILL SEE ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL SAT NGT THROUGH SUN NGT. MAGNITUDE OF FORCING AND MOISTURE SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR 6+ INCH ACCUMULATIONS WITH THE SOUTH HALF BEING MOST FAVORED ATTIM. BASED ON THIS AND ALSO AFTER COORDINATION WITH SEVERAL NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR MUCH OF AREA SOUTH OF I-80 SAT NGT UNTIL SUN EVE. AS MENTIONED... STILL PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEGREE OF INTERACTION OF ENERGY PACKETS WHICH RESULTS IN UNCERTAINTY WITH EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF SYSTEM. IF WERE TO SEE MORE INTERACTION/PHASING AS SUGGESTED THEN EXPECT SYSTEM TO COME NORTHWARD A BIT MORE... WHICH IN TURN WOULD NECESSITATE NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT NEEDED TO HEADLINES. IN ADDITION... MORE PHASING WOULD LEAD TO STRONGER SYSTEM AND POTENTIALLY LONG DURATION SNOWFALL THAT COULD LINGER WELL INTO MON AS SLOWING OF SYSTEM OVERALL SUGGESTIVE OF 36 + HRS OF LIGHT SNOW WITH ABOUT 18+ HR WINDOW OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL GENERALLY HIGHLIGHTED IN TIMING OF WATCH. Better phasing would be one good way to overcome the block and bring this thing further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Hmmm.. 06z GFS looks better at 500mb. Edited. After looking again it was not a increase in QPF except for a couple of areas. Other areas lost some. Time for some sleep for me. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 The 6z GFS is nice too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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