ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 GEFS looked pretty good, big shift north from the last run. I don't think there's much doubt this one will come north. I don't either....but the $64,000 is how far north? Its going to be north of consensus guidance of 12z, but it needs to be a lot north to hit us...it can be 200 miles north of consensus at 12z and still be a scraper. That was my point earlier about "Running of out of time" on this one....we can see shifts north, but if we are too close...we'll see the shift north, and then we'll get the stabilizing wobble from guidance that finishes south of us. I do like that we are slowing this down....that gives us more time. Slower usually means more amplifed...and it also gives model more problems and hence more time to adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Its similar to the 00z GFS at first glance...its way south of its ridiculous 12z run though. As we get closer...the Euro become more and more the the go-to model. We'll see how it moves tonight. GGEM can be weird...it can be really amped but then suppressed at a moments notice too. It was way too suppressed with the Feb blizzard, and too suppressed with the Mar 6-8 storm. GGEM was a pretty big hit yesterday too though... not as crazy as 12z today, but still way north of other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 http://boston.cbslocal.com/2013/03/21/worcester-currently-ranked-snowiest-city-in-u-s/ At least ORH made the news for something. Yeah, saw that earlier. Just awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I don't either....but the $64,000 is how far north? Its going to be north of consensus guidance of 12z, but it needs to be a lot north to hit us...it can be 200 miles north of consensus at 12z and still be a scraper. That was my point earlier about "Running of out of time" on this one....we can see shifts north, but if we are too close...we'll see the shift north, and then we'll get the stabilizing wobble from guidance that finishes south of us. I do like that we are slowing this down....that gives us more time. Slower usually means more amplifed...and it also gives model more problems and hence more time to adjust. How was the old euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 How was the old euro? Improved but still a solid whiff...the ensmebles jumped north too enough to give 0.25" to BOS. So def still worth watching on the Euro...the fact that the ensembles were that bullish prob is something to think about. But it only takes a couple runs to squash that....really only 1 run could put a dent in it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Improved but still a solid whiff...the ensmebles jumped north too enough to give 0.25" to BOS. So def still worth watching on the Euro...the fact that the ensembles were that bullish prob is something to think about. But it only takes a couple runs to squash that....really only 1 run could put a dent in it. Only glanced really but remember a few days ago it was a total non event. It's been juggling north and I think that continues. Thing just want to keep slipping north and I think we will run out of cold before we run out of qpf at this point this winter. Love it or hate it, it wants to snow. Euro being south doesn't phase me. It's usually only about now when it comes north. If I had to guess this settles south of the earlier systems with the focus being more in the 3 southern states but haven't cared to look and won't until after this euro run. Also no denying its more west east than the last few Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Love it or hate it, it wants to snow. I think we're lovers not haters here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep72108.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I think we're lovers not haters here... I'm about all snowed out. Just hoping for another ten inch storm and then I will be all set. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 We need the Euro and ensembles to shift north again....we still have time...but its running out...a south trend due to something legit like the Euro holdng onto the complex blocking a bit longer is probably going to put a fork in this event....but if it comes north agan, then we are still in it. I trust the Euro to handle complex blocking better than its opponents as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'm about all snowed out. Just hoping for another ten inch storm and then I will be all set. Yeah I'm ready for spring and warmer weather, but I just want to break 100 inches first... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 We need the Euro and ensembles to shift north again....we still have time...but its running out...a south trend due to something legit like the Euro holdng onto the complex blocking a bit longer is probably going to put a fork in this event....but if it comes north agan, then we are still in it. I trust the Euro to handle complex blocking better than its opponents as we get closer. Have you seen the 00z Ukie? I'm wondering if that shifted north at all tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah I'm ready for spring and warmer weather, but I just want to break 100 inches first... You have literally 7 months ahead of temps that are expected to be over 55F.....stop with this nonesense. We hear it every March...then we hear b*tching by early October how the 60F days are becoming boring. You guys all need to set your calibration a bit. There's a reason people like me savor end of winter...because the non-winter is so effing long!!!. If you are one of those posters who will not complain in October, then I will give you a pass, but for anyone who complains in October or early November about warm weather...they will suffer my full wrath in late March when they wish for 58F days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Ha, Will, totally agree. If we could have a few months of 70F and then go back to winter, I'm all for it, but we probably have 7-8 months until snow again...so lets rack up as much as possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Early on, the Euro doesn't look too good...this will probably mean game over for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Oh I love snow as much as anyone, I'm just saying that after the crazy winter we've had, I can't complain if it ended today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah this run isn't going to get it done...this looks worse than 12z....pretty disappointing after the NCEP guidance came north and after the Euro and its ensembles came north at 12z. You can almost stick a fork in this one for us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Yeah this run isn't going to get it done...this looks worse than 12z....pretty disappointing after the NCEP guidance came north and after the Euro and its ensembles came north at 12z. You can almost stick a fork in this one for us... I'd give it through the 12z. It's had the most trouble with the west to Easters in being too far south. But maybe this time it's right who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 I'd give it through the 12z. It's had the most trouble with the west to Easters in being too far south. But maybe this time it's right who knows. Yeah I mean we can't write it off totally....but its not looking good. The 00z Euro here is a big setback. It really squashed the trend the NCEP models had...the GGEM and Ukie didn't come north...we knew the GGEM would come south, but the Ukie didn't even come north from what I can see. I figured they weren't that relevant....but the Euro followed suit....NCEP just seems to be a run behind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro tries to recover late, but not much improvement....though the late recovery offers a slight bit of hope. But I really wanted to see a bigger move than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It moved north with the 0.10" line by about 75-100 miles...but still a solid whiff in terms of big impact. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro tries to recover late, but not much improvement....though the late recovery offers a slight bit of hope. But I really wanted to see a bigger move than that. Yeah, precip shield looks fairly close to 12z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 It moved north with the 0.10" line by about 75-100 miles...but still a solid whiff in terms of big impact. Will like I said I haven't followed but it seems based on what you're saying to be similar to the beginning of this pattern change. I think this was a good run its still shuffling north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Will like I said I haven't followed but it seems based on what you're saying to be similar to the beginning of this pattern change. I think this was a good run its still shuffling north. Hopefully it is...I didn't like the run overall....but it did make a late comeback...but if this ends up south...then that is a complete destruction of the NCEP guidance....being totally embarrassed by being a run behind. But I do think we need to see one more run at 12z. It just feels like NCEP is one step behind here, which of course wouldn't be shocking. But in the Mar 6-8 event we thought that for a brief moment and of course the Euro stole the show in the final 60-72 hours after we tried to count the storm out. Then we spent 3 days trying to convince everyone a big snowstorm was coming while nobody else would buy it....so we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Euro ens flatter than the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Jesus look at the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Jesus look at the NAM A lot of the GEFS members amped too. I really don't know what to make of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
It's Always Sunny Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 A lot of the GEFS members amped too. I really don't know what to make of it. With GFS/Euro operational runs and ensemble runs being rather consistent keeping this south I wouldn't be surprised to see the NAM jump on board later. I expect the 12Z Euro to move a tad further north as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Nice overnight trends continued . We've seen exactly what Will says we needed with the euro trending hundreds of miles north the last 2 runs. This thing is coming folks. Get snow in your forecasts and get sun and 40's out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted March 22, 2013 Share Posted March 22, 2013 Nice overnight trends continued . We've seen exactly what Will says we needed with the euro trending hundreds of miles north the last 2 runs. This thing is coming folks. Get snow in your forecasts and get sun and 40's out of it I still think odds favor a miss. Euro ensembles look ugly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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