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March 4th-6th Winter Storm Part 3


Powerball

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Another great AFD out of IND this afternoon..

 

 

.NEAR TERM /REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT/...ISSUED AT 336 PM EST TUE MAR 5 2013PRECIPITATION COVERAGE HAS BECOME WIDESPREAD THIS AFTERNOON AS LOWPRESSURE WAS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER CENTRAL KENTUCKY WITH A SURFACETROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWEST BACK ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND INTONORTHERN ILLINOIS. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE 30S ACROSS THE FORECASTAREA AS OF 20Z...BUT IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT OVERALL...TEMPS WERERUNNING 3-5 DEGREES COOLER THAN MODELS WERE DEPICTING FOR THIS TIME.IMPRESSIVE LATE SEASON WINTER STORM ABOUT TO COMMENCE ACROSS CENTRALINDIANA. GRADUAL TRANSITION OF PRECIP FROM RAIN TO SNOW ISBEGINNING...WITH MORE OBS ACROSS ILLINOIS AND NOW OVER WESTERNINDIANA REPORTING SNOW IN WAKE OF THE PASSAGE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH.WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THIS TRANSITION PROGRESS TO THE NORTHEASTTHROUGH 22-23Z...WITH ENTIRE FORECAST AREA EXPERIENCING SNOWTHEREAFTER.ONCE THE CHANGEOVER TO SNOW TAKES PLACE...EXPECT A NUMBER OFPARAMETERS TO COME INTO PLAY TO PROVIDE A PERIOD OF MODERATE TOPOTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL THIS EVENING FOCUSED ACROSS THENORTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...GENERALLY ALONG AND N/E OF THEINTERSTATE 74 CORRIDOR. AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTOOHIO THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FOR SEVERAL HOURS AS SECONDARYCOASTAL CYCLOGENESIS COMMENCES IN THE MID ATLANTIC. MEANWHILE...THEUPPER LOW WILL ROTATES THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING. TO THENORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...AN AXIS OF MID LEVELDEFORMATION COMBINED WITH FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL ALIGN WITHSTRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT...HIGH DIV Q VALUES AND THE PASSAGE OF ADECENT DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE TO PROVIDE AMPLE FORCING FOR HEAVYSNOW. THESE FEATURES MAY ALSO COMBINE TO ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOWRATIOS UNDERNEATH THE DEEPER FORCING WHICH WOULD SERVE TO ACCENTUATESNOWFALL RATES. THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE LOW OVER OHIO WILL KEEPTHE SURFACE TROUGH ANCHORED BACK TO THE WEST THROUGH CENTRAL INDIANAINTO THE OVERNIGHT...AND SHOULD AID FORCING ALOFT MENTIONED ABOVE TOFURTHER ENHANCE SNOWFALL RATES. AS THE SECONDARY LOW IN THE MIDATLANTIC BECOMES THE DOMINANT SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT...MODELS ARECAPTURING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD WITH A STRONG EASTERLY LOW LEVELJET THAT MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO AND BRING ATLANTIC MOISTURE BACKWEST INTO THE REGION AND INTERACT WITH AN IMPRESSIVE TROWAL. THISWILL LIKELY SERVE TO  MAINTAIN STRONG LIFT AND MODERATE TO HEAVYSNOWFALL EVEN AS BETTER DEFORMATION AND FORCING ALOFT BEGINS TOSHIFT EAST WITH THE UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THETROWAL WILL THEN ROTATE SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BETWEEN06-12Z ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. SURFACE WIND GUSTS WILLINCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 25-30 MPH...AND WILL LIKELY PRODUCE BLOWING/DRIFTING OF SNOW. THE EXPECTED HEAVY WET SNOW HOWEVER MAY LIMITBLOWING OF SNOW TO SOME DEGREE.ALL OF THESE FEATURES ABOVE WITH THE MOISTURE PRESENT SUPPORTRAISING SNOWFALL TOTALS AS WAS DONE EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVETWEAKED FURTHER FOR THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. BY WEDNESDAY MORNINGALONG AND NORTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 74...ANTICIPATE 4 TO 6 INCHES WITHTHE POSSIBLY OF 8 TO MAYBE 9 INCHES OVER NORTHEAST COUNTIES WHEREFORCING WILL LINGER LONGEST. TO THE S/W OF INTERSTATE 74...EXPECT AWIDE SWATH OF 2 TO 5 INCHES. THIS HAS REQUIRED A FEW ADDITIONALMINOR CHANGES TO HEADLINES...WITH JENNINGS COUNTY NOW BEING UPGRADEDTO A WARNING AND DAVIESS/KNOX COUNTIES BEING PLACED UNDER THEADVISORY. HEAVIEST SNOWFALL LIKELY TO COME THIS EVENING IN THEWARNING AREA THROUGH ABOUT 06-08Z WITH GRADUALLY LIGHTENING RATESTHEREAFTER AS THE TROWAL ROTATES SOUTHEAST. AS OF 20Z...ALLHEADLINES ARE NOW IN EFFECT.TEMPS...LEANED TOWARDS LOWER END OF MOS GUIDANCE OVERNIGHT AS LOWSSHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID AND UPPER 20S.

 

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I don't think I have ever seen a transition like this one.  It was raining one minute and the next it was pouring huge snowballs.  Grassy areas were white in a few minutes.  Never really mixed at all.

 

That's good. Hope it pours snow down there. :)

 

Earlier we had a transition of rain/sleet to sleet to snow/sleet...then completely over. Wouldn't be a storm here without sleet of course... 

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I assume it's majority snow, with that low of a visibility, but IND reporting -SNPL.

 

SPECI KIND 052128Z 29005KT 1/4SM R05L/4000V5500FT -SNPL BR BKN004 OVC011 00/00 A2965 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 RAE28SNB12 P0005

Yeah, the visibility is quite low.  Can't see 465 from my office building, which is only a couple of blocks away.

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5.5" with SN ... ratios must be coming up a little bit....last round of shoveling featured fluffier snow

 

Yeah shoveling today is not bad at all, except right next to the road.

 

Flake size on the increase here. More stickage on the roads.

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