RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We all know the NAM is going to cut the QPF in half tonight at 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Too early for a separate Obs thread, but, FWIW, after a high of 49 at PHL, they are already down to 42 with a dewpoint of 26. If the clouds stay away for a few more hours, we will be well on our way to... well... let's just say to a less awful boundary layer. Won't matter a whole lot once the wind shifts more easterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Everyone seems to be banking on the SREF's and NAM at this point. Time will tell if that's correct. Put on your snow goggles and crack open the jack daniels Ray, their going to pull a coup just look at that radar how can they be wrong... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 We all know the NAM is going to cut the QPF in half tonight at 00z. I wouldn't be surprised if it waited until 12Z tomorrow morning. Must I post the drunk NAM image again? That was the 0Z run the night before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Too early for a separate Obs thread, but, FWIW, after a high of 49 at PHL, they are already down to 42 with a dewpoint of 26. If the clouds stay away for a few more hours, we will be well on our way to... well... let's just say to a less awful boundary layer. GFS actually had it forecasted for 35 degrees at 00z(7 PM) tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a mess for me.... I am down in NE MD for work, my home is in Ocean county NJ. Trying to follow two threads (not cross threading) and the dynamics keep changing. The family wants to know what is happening in NJ and trying to track MD weather with a variety of sources. If I believe the NAM MD is crushed with decent snow amounts in TR. However I have always followed the Philly thread (my home) and for this year be suspect of the NAM. However down hear the NAM short range before the storm is almost gospel. Not bad mouthing anyone, just looking for some sort of consensus (which is probably impossible with this storm set up) - appreciate the ear(s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a mess for me.... I am down in NE MD for work, my home is in Ocean county NJ. Trying to follow two threads (not cross threading) and the dynamics keep changing. The family wants to know what is happening in NJ and trying to track MD weather with a variety of sources. If I believe the NAM MD is crushed with decent snow amounts in TR. However I have always followed the Philly thread (my home) and for this year be suspect of the NAM. However down hear the NAM short range before the storm is almost gospel. Not bad mouthing anyone, just looking for some sort of consensus (which is probably impossible with this storm set up) - appreciate the ear(s) The NAM is an awful model. A broke clock is right twice a day the nam can only wish it was that good I would blend the ecm with gfs and sref's myself to get an idea for amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 What a mess for me.... I am down in NE MD for work, my home is in Ocean county NJ. Trying to follow two threads (not cross threading) and the dynamics keep changing. The family wants to know what is happening in NJ and trying to track MD weather with a variety of sources. If I believe the NAM MD is crushed with decent snow amounts in TR. However I have always followed the Philly thread (my home) and for this year be suspect of the NAM. However down hear the NAM short range before the storm is almost gospel. Not bad mouthing anyone, just looking for some sort of consensus (which is probably impossible with this storm set up) - appreciate the ear(s) Cut Nam's QPF in half and that's closer to reality, at least here. It's been like that for 95% of all systems here. Even the Almighty was a bit drunk the night before the NE blizzard but not so much as the Nam. The GFS under performed for many as well as so take its sprinkles with a grain of salt as well. Euro, RGEM and 1/2 nam best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 problem is cutting the nam qpf in half doesnt always work. Nam's 1.40" qpf for me for February 8th snow worked out to 2.7" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Where the NAM agrees with the globals you can trust it. Where it doesn't, be wary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 All stations now down to temps in the 30's. Coldest right now is Lakehurst reporting 33. Would love to know what Millville is reporting but the station appears to be down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Nam is not a great model but it has it's days, just last week comes to mind..Nam nailed that event for upstate(gfs did well also0, euro was pretty bad.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WebBreaker63 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Not an easy question to be answered.. Down MD way they are counting on colder temps based on the NAM - will be going into now casting and tell the fam of potential (not to mention any wind without snow that may occur along the coast) . I just see a lot of rain heading this way (MD) unless you live in the mountains. Appreciate the feed back... problem is cutting the nam qpf in half doesnt always work. Nam's 1.40" qpf for me for February 8th snow worked out to 2.7" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 31.6 here in NW Chesco. Ground surface frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 All stations now down to temps in the 30's. Coldest right now is Lakehurst reporting 33. Would love to know what Millville is reporting but the station appears to be down. http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=NJ&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e This link will give you all the MesoNet stations reporting to NWS. It updates frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RowanBrandon Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 http://raws.wrh.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/roman/raws_ca_monitor.cgi?state=NJ&type=&rawsflag=290&timeobs=12&day1=22&month1=9&year1=2007&hour1=22&orderby=e This link will give you all the MesoNet stations reporting to NWS. It updates frequently. Oh sweet. Thanks! I've been waiting for the hourly update from the NWS stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Here is the link to TWC's update. http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1543561897001?bckey=AQ~~,AAAAAAQxtuk~,N9g8AOtC12eobrWkZvrqKiXxOtGg-8h1&bctid=2181682998001 Shows future models and why eastern pa is forecasted for 8-12" of snow. They just won't let up. They've got all the storms right so far this year..just saying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Here is the link to TWC's update. http://link.brightcove.com/services/player/bcpid1543561897001?bckey=AQ~~,AAAAAAQxtuk~,N9g8AOtC12eobrWkZvrqKiXxOtGg-8h1&bctid=2181682998001 Shows future models and why eastern pa is forecasted for 8-12" of snow. They just won't let up. They've got all the storms right so far this year..just saying If TWC gets that right i would go back to watching TWC that i abandoned around 1999 their future model is wetter than the nam and that's saying something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 If TWC gets that right i would go back to watching TWC that i abandoned around 1999 their future model is wetter than the nam and that's saying something Lol yeah I don't get it. They are always conservative and downplay EVERYTHING. But why change that now and go extreme Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 I'm seeing this too. Caught me off guard because like you said they are always on the low end with storm totals. I really wish I knew what they see over there. Would be awesome if they nailed it but not looking very likely. It's them against the world with that forecast lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ending "winter"how we started. Winter storm watches downgraded to advisorys. Fitting isn't it?! Lol. Anyhow, 39 Nd drizzle here in the d-hizzle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boch23 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ending "winter"how we started. Winter storm watches downgraded to advisorys. Fitting isn't it?! Lol. Anyhow, 39 Nd drizzle here in the d-hizzle Yeah thats what I said yesterday lol. Hard not to think that was going to happen based on the way this entire winter has gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Award winning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 lol @ Bri... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 6, 2013 Author Share Posted March 6, 2013 lol hahaah that is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Ha! All it's missing is Urkel saying "Did I do that?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Where have all the NAM huggers who were saying things like, "there is no way Philly won't get at least 6 inches" gone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JCT777 Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Where have all the NAM huggers who were saying things like, "there is no way Philly won't get at least 6 inches" gone? I'm at the point of treating the NAM the same way as the JMA regarding storm threats...in other words, a model that shouldn't be mentioned in a serious weather discussion thread. For this storm, I've never been onboard for anything more than a slushy inch or two in the immediate Philly area (not counting elevations of 500'+ as well as all of western/SW Chester county). The relatively light precip rates combined with temps mostly above 32 degrees during this storm does not bode well for much snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted March 6, 2013 Share Posted March 6, 2013 Just woke up and hoped it would be snowing first guess is it doesn't look good for my 1-3" call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.