AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The Euro doesn't have a SE bias. The main bias the Euro has is it holds energy back in the sw too long. Which doesnt come into play here. I'd argue that the euro has a dry bias and has not been doing so great. It did alright with Nemo and Sandy but has followed the GFS mostly with smaller scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll answer that with a question. How often is the Euro dead wrong at 48hrs? It was pretty wrong with this last storm at 48 for alot of areas, completely missed the accumulating snow over PA for the most part and was wrong up here as well, we had a dry nose that screwed us but there was plenty of precipitation even up into the Hudson valley, the Euro pretty much blew that event severely, the warm boundary layer for most of the region made it seem to verify better than it actually did. I'm not sure our chances of having be wrong twice, but in this case if it is off and the GFS/GEM are correct its not off by a whole lot, maybe 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'm not going to say the euro is a bad model, which people will say but it is not. Euro's se bias might also come into play a bit SW bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'll answer that with a question. How often is the Euro dead wrong at 48hrs?Rarely, but the trends of tonight needs to be taken into account as well. To answer lisnow, I would say the beat bet at this point is to wait for future runs, especially since this is still roughly 48 hours away and as has been seen all winter, this pattern has been giving all the models trouble. The 00z suite essentially is showing us that a potential is on the table, but without a 50/50 there's a potential to swing wide right. This is where wait and see becomes torture. By the way, it will be interesting to see the ensemble mean for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00z ECMWF is not impressed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 00z ECMWF is not impressed Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TyPenn13 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 No, no, no, the Euro is the Yankees game and I'm Sterling And my Mets are the 06z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Basically only 2 of the GEFS members are east of the Op and maybe 1 of those 2 is even close to the Euro, this is really bad agreement between the models for the 2nd storm in a row inside 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 And my Mets are the 06z NAM. Haha. I'm a suffering mets fan too... We have a bright future. However lets focus on this storm not baseball and spring training, We can do that after this stormy period:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Basically only 2 of the GEFS members are east of the Op and maybe 1 of those 2 is even close to the Euro, this is really bad agreement between the models for the 2nd storm in a row inside 3 days.I hear several are showing huge hits for the coast ... is that true (I'm on my cell at the firehouse)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leemhoc Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Basically only 2 of the GEFS members are east of the Op and maybe 1 of those 2 is even close to the Euro, this is really bad agreement between the models for the 2nd storm in a row inside 3 days. How many show moderate to big hits for our area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 When it comes to major events, the Euro will usually show them days in advance and in those cases, it usually ends up being right. This will get proven with the 22nd threat, but when it comes to smaller storms especially difficult ones to forecast like this than it's probably on par with the other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Basically only 2 of the GEFS members are east of the Op and maybe 1 of those 2 is even close to the Euro, this is really bad agreement between the models for the 2nd storm in a row inside 3 days. Everyone knows how this story ends. 12z GFS tommorow will make or break this event, it is never wrong within 24 hours at least in regards to large scale features. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Everyone knows how this story ends. 12z GFS tommorow will make or break this event, it is never wrong within 24 hours at least in regards to large scale features. This event is a mess, the models do not know which area to key in on for the surface low at all. Its possible any one of them could be correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 How many show moderate to big hits for our area? My estimate is three moderate hits and four significant. None of them are really major hits, but getting close. The rest are light or complete misses. The QPF, especially on the individual ensemble members, is still of only minor significance. Synoptically we are on the fringe of all of them. If a setup evolves similar to the GFS, and even the GGEM, it will be a close call as to whether the area sees significant snow. This has to come further west to get good snows locally. E LI and SNE is in a better position. The GFS is a western outlier in the 0z cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ny747pilot Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This event is a mess, the models do not know which area to key in on for the surface low at all. Its possible any one of them could be correct.In your opinion what is causing the model confusion? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i just read that there was a recon tonight; could that have led to the solution being shown by the GFS and the GGEM?? although i kinda wonder why the EURO was somewhat different and showed a miss?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wow I cant believe the storm is back, the GFS is so close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 not surprised by the euro at all if it's going to show something it's going to do it at 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 nam looks like it took a step in the right direction.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 yea the track looked better than 0z and 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 nova scotia gets hammered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Yea nice trend on the NAM, the low is at least 100 miles west of 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6Z GFS is east. well, that was fun to watch, if the GGEM loses it its over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
user13 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6Z GFS is east. well, that was fun to watch, if the GGEM loses it its over. The low isn't really east, just the heavy precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 JMA is almost there http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 6z RGEM at 48 hours. This is really close.http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/06_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_048.jpg 6Z GFS is east. well, that was fun to watch, if the GGEM loses it its over. What? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 JMA is almost there http://grib2.com/jma/CONUS_JMA_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_48HR.gif Nice blob of up to .5 right over NJ..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 0z GGEM ensemble mean has .50 + for NYC Nam 4km is really close http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=06ℑ=nam-hires%2F06%2Fnam-hires_namer_054_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This is really close 6z GEFS members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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