Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can't wait for severe weather season to be a complete bust. Chicago is going to keep the screw zone going all spring and summer. Going to be nice watching everywhere else get severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Chicago is going to keep the screw zone going all spring and summer. Going to be nice watching everywhere else get severe. That's what chasing is for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Screaming either a hard cutter or an east coast storm but I am not an optimist at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Screaming either a hard cutter or an east coast storm but I am not an optimist at this pointNo it's not, go back and read RCNYILWX's post, it is spot on with respect to what I would expect would happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 nothing about this screams east coast storm....it's going to try to cut, hopefully it pulls east before most of the sub forum gets too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 fwiw ensemble agreement remains excellent for a high impact event in the center of the country Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Watch ORD get 15"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Besides the early thread start jibber-jabber, yes, pretty much everything is on board for a potential significant system with a ton of energy from the Pacific Jet diving into the west (and likely becoming coupled with the ST jet in some fashion). What happens ahead of that is key. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Can't wait for severe weather season to be a complete bust. Headline on CNN, 4/9/13: "Lafayette, IN struck by a violent, nighttime tornado after 'meteorologist' Chad Myers declared an outbreak in the Great Lakes region over because cooling of the atmosphere would put an end to tornadic supercells." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 and harry is never right lol Go clean your knees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Um...damn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 No it's not, go back and read RCNYILWX's post, it is spot on with respect to what I would expect would happen East coast transfer. Mediocre storm further west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 East coast transfer. Mediocre storm further west The further west this tracks the less of a chance this transfers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Either or Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 East coast transfer. Mediocre storm further west You're cherry picking his post, read the second part of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 East coast transfer. Mediocre storm further west Talking transfer and MW "bust" this early is a little much, isn't it? We're not even close to making a definitive call if the storm will even happen. Though model evidence points in the direction of a storm...right now.. Relax. We can fine tune the details down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Talking transfer and MW "bust" this early is a little much, isn't it? We're not even close to making a definitive call if the storm will even happen. Though model evidence points in the direction of a storm...right now.. Relax. We can fine tune the details down the road. Yeah I don't get some people, they are just looking to denounce a potential without any real reasoning other than to be contrarian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It will be interesting to see if/where the GEM has the storm in the 12Z run tomorrow since it has the update / will run to 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah I don't get some people, they are just looking to denounce a potential without any real reasoning other than to be contrarian.[/quoteWe are not even within truncation. I never said there was not a threat. I just said I thought it will cut hard or end up being a bigger threat to the east coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah I don't get some people, they are just looking to denounce a potential without any real reasoning other than to be contrarian. We are not even within truncation. I never said there was not a threat. I just said I thought it will cut hard or end up being a bigger threat to the east coast Yes I understand that but there is no basis to that happening. The pattern doesn't match it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 Yeah I don't get some people, they are just looking to denounce a potential without any real reasoning other than to be contrarian. I'll probably get blasted by some for saying this, but oh well...being negative about the storm at this range, without any reasoning, is kinda silly. There are still plenty of options on the table, and no one has any real clue about the end result. And one more thing, people taking personal shots at others is really lame. Why any of this is allowed is beyond me. Can't we just talk about the weather on here and leave the other crap at some other place better suited for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I'll probably get blasted by some for saying this, but oh well...being negative about the storm at this range, without any reasoning, is kinda silly. There are still plenty of options on the table, and no one has any real clue about the end result. And one more thing, people taking personal shots at others is really lame. Why any of this is allowed is beyond me. Can't we just talk about the weather on here and leave the other crap at some other place better suited for it? Spot on. Oh and better believe if someone feels the need to take a pop shot i'll fire back. Leave me out of it and i'll stay out of it. Very easy me thinks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This doesn't look like a classic SW to NE moving cutter to me anyways. With the AO/NAO trying or starting to get into negative territory at that time frame and the hemispheric pattern looking the way that it is I just don't see it in the cards this cuts Northeastward in movement, and if it did it probably wouldn't happen til it reached somewhere over Indiana/Eastern Illinois or that general area- at which time yes it could then fill and transfer to another low...but don't see that as a strong option at this point due to what is likely to be happening over the Atlantic. This does, in fact look like a system that could be a nice/strong bowling ball type of system with good moisture feed, good cold air feed (and not cutting into the lakes will help temper the warm air draw a bit too), and good jet dynamics in place. Way to early to start getting fine with the smaller features that MAY produce a decent snow. At this point its all potential and trend watching, nothing more. But the threat is there from this baby to give a good chunk of the middle areas of this forum its first decent snow all Winter. Stay Tuned... If this thing Jerry Taft's on us and only drops 1-3" oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 It will be interesting to see if/where the GEM has the storm in the 12Z run tomorrow since it has the update / will run to 240 hours. looks like the nam could use an update... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 looks like the nam could use an update... wrong storm/thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This doesn't look like a classic SW to NE moving cutter to me anyways. With the AO/NAO trying or starting to get into negative territory at that time frame and the hemispheric pattern looking the way that it is I just don't see it in the cards this cuts Northeastward in movement, and if it did it probably wouldn't happen til it reached somewhere over Indiana/Eastern Illinois or that general area- at which time yes it could then fill and transfer to another low...but don't see that as a strong option at this point due to what is likely to be happening over the Atlantic. This does, in fact look like a system that could be a nice/strong bowling ball type of system with good moisture feed, good cold air feed (and not cutting into the lakes will help temper the warm air draw a bit too), and good jet dynamics in place. Way to early to start getting fine with the smaller features that MAY produce a decent snow. At this point its all potential and trend watching, nothing more. But the threat is there from this baby to give a good chunk of the middle areas of this forum its first decent snow all Winter. Stay Tuned... If this thing Jerry Taft's on us and only drops 1-3" oh well. Great post, basically what I was trying to convey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This doesn't look like a classic SW to NE moving cutter to me anyways. With the AO/NAO trying or starting to get into negative territory at that time frame and the hemispheric pattern looking the way that it is I just don't see it in the cards this cuts Northeastward in movement, and if it did it probably wouldn't happen til it reached somewhere over Indiana/Eastern Illinois or that general area- at which time yes it could then fill and transfer to another low...but don't see that as a strong option at this point due to what is likely to be happening over the Atlantic. This does, in fact look like a system that could be a nice/strong bowling ball type of system with good moisture feed, good cold air feed (and not cutting into the lakes will help temper the warm air draw a bit too), and good jet dynamics in place. Way to early to start getting fine with the smaller features that MAY produce a decent snow. At this point its all potential and trend watching, nothing more. But the threat is there from this baby to give a good chunk of the middle areas of this forum its first decent snow all Winter. Stay Tuned... If this thing Jerry Taft's on us and only drops 1-3" oh well. Excellent summation, I would completely agree with it. Also lol at the last line, hopefully no one is 'Taft'ed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 I will mark this down as a region wide bowler Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 This doesn't look like a classic SW to NE moving cutter to me anyways. With the AO/NAO trying or starting to get into negative territory at that time frame and the hemispheric pattern looking the way that it is I just don't see it in the cards this cuts Northeastward in movement, and if it did it probably wouldn't happen til it reached somewhere over Indiana/Eastern Illinois or that general area- at which time yes it could then fill and transfer to another low...but don't see that as a strong option at this point due to what is likely to be happening over the Atlantic. This does, in fact look like a system that could be a nice/strong bowling ball type of system with good moisture feed, good cold air feed (and not cutting into the lakes will help temper the warm air draw a bit too), and good jet dynamics in place. Way to early to start getting fine with the smaller features that MAY produce a decent snow. At this point its all potential and trend watching, nothing more. But the threat is there from this baby to give a good chunk of the middle areas of this forum its first decent snow all Winter. Stay Tuned... If this thing Jerry Taft's on us and only drops 1-3" oh well. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted February 14, 2013 Share Posted February 14, 2013 wrong storm/thread Thanks chief but there isn't a storm thread for Feb 16th.... and the context of the post I was replying to was about crappy models and upgrades. Sorry if it derailed your thoughts....please, carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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