WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is heavy snow moving into Long Island could that be sleet there due to bright banding?? famartin has a good tool showing where the sleet is.. It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Light snow now in Flushing Queens, Kew Gardens Hills (Near Jewel Ave & Main St.) Closest Weatherbug station says temp has dropped a few degrees since the snow started. Why is my gut telling me this thing is not going to get as warm as people are thinking? Hey guys and gals. Let's please keep the observations in the observation thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39242-february-8th-9th-snowstormblizzard-event-observations/ Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is heavy snow moving into Long Island ...not with the temps in mid-upper 30's.. its going to RAIN..not feeling good about this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 light snow in whitestone just started good east wind has shifted which is key the prince of darkness has left the building Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BL03 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 11z 925mb temps 0c line CNJ ....S of SI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know It's called the correlation coefficient. That tool is showing that it's sleet and rain out over the water, but once it moves over land it becomes a snow and sleet mix and then all snow. I like the look currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know yeah it's rain out here near KISP... it actually comes in bursts together with the wind gusts, weird.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 almost snowing at a moderate clip here on the South Shore...temp down 2 to 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know yeah it's rain out here near KISP... it actually comes in bursts together with the wind gusts, weird.. Nice look to the bands though...you definitely will get it good in ISP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eastern areas on LI might start off as rain because their marine layer taint was more "damaging", since they are closer to the ocean with respect to the easterly flow we previously had. I'm all snow now in Nassau County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It's called the correlation coefficient. That tool is showing that it's sleet and rain out over the water, but once it moves over land it becomes a snow and sleet mix and then all snow. I like the look currently. Thinking NYC stays mainly snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eastern areas on LI might start off as rain because their marine layer taint was more "damaging", since they are closer to the ocean with respect to the easterly flow we previously had. I'm all snow now in Nassau County. This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does. The radar right now reminds me of Dec 2003, where the transition line sat about 10 miles off shore and S+ fell across the Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does. Yeah, I'm still concerned about the mid-level warm nose, but I'm not concerned about the surface warmth at this point. The snow is coming down nicely here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 00z NAM for the track Euro for temps and QPF FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Thinking NYC stays mainly snow? Mainly non rain, yes. I still do think we'll have to deal with a decent amount of sleet tainting us, but I'd say NYC is 75% snow. Hopefully I'm right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Mainly non rain, yes. I still do think we'll have to deal with a decent amount of sleet tainting us, but I'd say NYC is 75% snow. Hopefully I'm right. I agree, 925 torch right now, I love sleetstroms, so sleetstorm to blizzard works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does. ..NWS says it will stay RAIN thru 8-10 pm tonite(for ELI) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nightknights Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Don't know if it mean anything but snowing in Nutley NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Eastern areas on LI might start off as rain because their marine layer taint was more "damaging", since they are closer to the ocean with respect to the easterly flow we previously had. I'm all snow now in Nassau County. snowing pretty hard right now in Woodmere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Holy crap Boston's point and click Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 32. Breezy, with a east wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible. Saturday Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Windy, with a north wind 21 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.25-40" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM started me off with rain, but it's snowing. Hopefully it stays snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Snowing almost mod big flakes.. Can't imagine a transition to rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 NAM started me off with rain, but it's snowing. Hopefully it stays snowing. Its not just snow. its moderate snow with BIG flakes in Kew Gardens. Flurries to mod in 12 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GD0815 Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Agree the GFS qpf depiction looks out to lunch....bad news is not sure any model has a truly good handle on qpf placement in this area during and post phasing process....without a doubt the most difficult forecast for NYC metro area this close to the start of a major storm in years....I think the most extreme solution chances have diminished for the city and west, but my lack of sleep could be clouding my perceptions. th eeeuro has bee really consistent with th phasing and qpf for 10 runs in a row now it may not verify, but you cannot conclude it is having troublehandling these features from the model runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 Its not just snow. its moderate snow with BIG flakes in Kew Gardens. Flurries to mod in 12 minutes Same here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 th euro has bee really consistent with th phasig and qpf for 10 runs in a row now it may noty verify, but you cannot conclude it is having troublehandling these features from the model runs More commenting on the potential banding features...see the HPC heavy snow disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 I don't think 850's are the problem. It's the 900mb layer where there's the warming. 925mb 0C is just south of LI. 850's are well off shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lindywx Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 It will be amazing if the Euro is right and we stay all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fantom X Posted February 8, 2013 Share Posted February 8, 2013 That is heavy snow moving into Long Island it's moderate rain here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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