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blizzard of 2013 discussion


forkyfork

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That is heavy snow moving into Long Island

could that be sleet there due to bright banding?? famartin has a good tool showing where the sleet is..

It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know
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Light snow now in Flushing Queens, Kew Gardens Hills (Near Jewel Ave & Main St.) Closest Weatherbug station says temp has dropped a few degrees since the snow started. Why is my gut telling me this thing is not going to get as warm as people are thinking?

 

 

Hey guys and gals. Let's please keep the observations in the observation thread:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39242-february-8th-9th-snowstormblizzard-event-observations/

 

Thanks! 

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It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know

 

 

It's called the correlation coefficient. That tool is showing that it's sleet and rain out over the water, but once it moves over land it becomes a snow and sleet mix and then all snow. I like the look currently. 

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It COULD be....but my gut feeling is it is wet, heavy snow mixed with rain. Band moving in here and NYC in the next 20min or so. Which tool is it that he uses? I'd love to know

yeah it's rain out here near KISP... it actually comes in bursts together with the wind gusts, weird..

Nice look to the bands though...you definitely will get it good in ISP!

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Eastern areas on LI might start off as rain because their marine layer taint was more "damaging", since they are closer to the ocean with respect to the easterly flow we previously had. I'm all snow now in Nassau County. 

 

This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does.

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This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does.

The radar right now reminds me of Dec 2003, where the transition line sat about 10 miles off shore and S+ fell across the Island

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This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does.

 

 

Yeah, I'm still concerned about the mid-level warm nose, but I'm not concerned about the surface warmth at this point. The snow is coming down nicely here now. 

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This was the potential scenario I was envisioning where a big heavy precip area advances in early and immediately puts any threat of warm air to an end, still need to see if that mid-level nose pushes in but it may only be able to just sit just south of LI as it often does.

..NWS says it will stay RAIN thru 8-10 pm tonite(for ELI)

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Eastern areas on LI might start off as rain because their marine layer taint was more "damaging", since they are closer to the ocean with respect to the easterly flow we previously had. I'm all snow now in Nassau County. 

snowing pretty hard right now in Woodmere

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Holy crap Boston's point and click



  • Snow, mainly after 8am. High near 32. Breezy, with a east wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 16 to 21 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible.
  • Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 22. Windy, with a north wind 23 to 30 mph, with gusts as high as 70 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
  • Saturday Snow, mainly before 2pm. The snow could be heavy at times. High near 24. Windy, with a north wind 21 to 31 mph, with gusts as high as 65 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.

    25-40" of snow :o
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Agree the GFS qpf depiction looks out to lunch....bad news is not sure any model has a truly good handle on qpf placement in this area during and post phasing process....without a doubt the most difficult forecast for NYC metro area this close to the start of a major storm in years....I think the most extreme solution chances have diminished for the city and west, but my lack of sleep could be clouding my perceptions.

th eeeuro has bee really consistent with th phasing and qpf for 10 runs in a row now it may not verify, but you cannot conclude it is having troublehandling these features from the model runs

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