IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 The MJO is heading towards the COD - IF it enters the COD that is a very favorable phase for a snowstorm in NYC Metro - in fact if you look at the archive section of this link I have found several HECS that occurred when the MJO was in the COD - Blizzard of 96 - Blizzard of Feb 83 - Presidents Day 1 (Feb 1979) and Presidents Day 2.(Feb 2003)There may be more haven't looked........... http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ My point is that the reason why the STJ is declining is because the MJO is moving towards the COD. In phase 4, the STJ was very active, in fact too active. We couldn't get enough seperation between the short waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 There's no reason to give up right now, the full scale blocking pattern and pna have yet to develop, very premature throw in the towel thinking for most here. Good post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 My point is that the reason why the STJ is declining is because the MJO is moving towards the COD. In phase 4, the STJ was very active, in fact too active. We couldn't get enough seperation between the short waves. if that is the case explain how lows developed down south during the four HECS I mentioned when the MJO was in the COD ? In fact IF the MJO can make it into the COD that combined with a neg NAO - neg AO and pos PNA is a great signal for a snowstorm along the east coast especially since the NAO next week is going to be in a better position Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 3 years ago http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 3 years ago http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2010/25-Feb-10.html another example where the MJO was in the COD during this event http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ - check the archives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 if that is the case explain how lows developed down south during the four HECS I mentioned when the MJO was in the COD ? In fact IF the MJO can make it into the COD that combined with a neg NAO - neg AO and pos PNA is a great signal for a snowstorm along the east coast especially since the NAO next week is going to be in a better position I didn't say that big snow storms couldn't happen with the MJO in the circle of death. If you read my post more clearly you would see that I was noting it as the reason why the STJ is dying off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Euro is cooking up something at 204 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z Euro is a true miller A threat at day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Why are people even mentioning the 10 day EURO? Haven't we learned this season that no matter what shows up on long range models, within day 5, the threat usually fizzles to be nothing for us. Winter is over. Long live Spring. 45 degrees right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Why are people even mentioning the 10 day EURO? Haven't we learned this season that no matter what shows up on long range models, within day 5, the threat usually fizzles to be nothing for us. Winter is over. Long live Spring. 45 degrees right now! Winter is far from over. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Why are people even mentioning the 10 day EURO? Haven't we learned this season that no matter what shows up on long range models, within day 5, the threat usually fizzles to be nothing for us. Winter is over. Long live Spring. 45 degrees right now! If spring means snow threats, well below normal temperatures, and intense blocking patterns, then you're right, Long Live Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingofQueens Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Texas and Oklahoma are getting hammered by a blizzard lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Why are people even mentioning the 10 day EURO? Haven't we learned this season that no matter what shows up on long range models, within day 5, the threat usually fizzles to be nothing for us. Winter is over. Long live Spring. 45 degrees right now! First of all, this is the banter thread at least, secondly you're using the current temp as justification that winter is over? I guess we should have just assumed winter was over when it the 50's back in January? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I didn't say that big snow storms couldn't happen with the MJO in the circle of death. If you read my post more clearly you would see that I was noting it as the reason why the STJ is dying off. Feb 2011 - snowiest month in NYC history - 36 inches the MJO was in the COD the entire month except for the 20th - 22nd http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/ - go to the archives Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 12z Euro is a true miller A threat at day 10. not sure if the low is going to come up the coast or go out to sea after 240 - all the indicies and if the MJO is in the COD suggest up the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Winter is far from over. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ecmwf.html Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. Not all of Long Island. 25.5 on the season in SE Nassau. Not bad but certianly not good like points east that are probaly around 40 inches or more. I agree I would rather an early spring then cold and dry. Fortunitly I do not think that is the case. March is generaly a wet and stormy month so if we have cold around it is only a matter of time before things finaly click. In my opinion no way make it through March without at least one decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. You might eat your own words in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. New England has really been the only place in the Northeast that has had a great winter. Central PA is largely near or slightly below average I believe, much of upstate NY is actually below normal, and obviously SW of here toward Philly and beyond are well below normal. NYC is the transition zone as it usually is. NYC right now is right around where they should be at 18-19" on the season. I'm at about 22-23" where I am, and further east has substantially more on Long Island. It's not a great winter by any means, but it's not a terrible one either for NYC. If I were to guess I'd say NYC ends up with another few inches and ends up slightly below their 28" long term average. Boston probably has a good shot at making it to 60"+. Typical for Nina-esque seasons. From here on southwest, we probably have to wait for the next Nino winter to really have a shot at a huge season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You might eat your own words in March agree 100 % Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 not sure if the low is going to come up the coast or go out to sea after 240 - all the indicies and if the MJO is in the COD suggest up the coast By the looks of the setup at 500mb, OTS, but not by much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 RGEM starts NYC off as a mix tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 You might eat your own words in March This is not 1888. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. Who ever wins the loser donates $50 towards the forum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Who ever wins the loser donates $50 towards the forum? Easy win.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 This is not 1888. Are you even looking at the models? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. The scouts at the NWS are reading your posts. There may be a job waiting for you at Upton if you continue these on the money medium to long range predictions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs is blocky all throughout its run, it's very cold for March, it has a couple of storm threats, a few strong shots of arctic air. It's almost like we're heading into winter rather than spring off of the gfs. The storm signal remains tricky as there are pieces of energy around but there's not one particular piece to really focus on. Looks like some snow showers maybe from the ULL as it passes over our area, there's the offshore storm around Day 5-6. That's probably the most imminent threat for now although I think it'll be too far east but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 18z gfs is blocky all throughout its run, it's very cold for March, it has a couple of storm threats, a few strong shots of arctic air. It's almost like we're heading into winter rather than spring off of the gfs. The storm signal remains tricky as there are pieces of energy around but there's not one particular piece to really focus on. Looks like some snow showers maybe from the ULL as it passes over our area, there's the offshore storm around Day 5-6. That's probably the most imminent threat for now although I think it'll be too far east but who knows. We will probably get a storm threat when the NAO begins to rise and the best blocking begins to fade away, the problem is it will be mid-March by then and we might end up with a really rainy noreaster in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 Give it up, weenie. Mark my words: The NYC Metro Area will not see another moderate, major or severe winter weather event (i.e. ice, snow, etc.) until December 2013. We just didn't have an El Nino this year like we thought we would. NYC has been the screw zone. Upstate NY, Connecticut, Long Island all had great winters. NYC hasn't. Some days you get the bear, some days the bear gets you. But for the sake of heating bills, I'm ready for 60s and sunshine. Words marked. For the record, moderate is 3", significant is 6", anything above 12 can be considered major/severe. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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