Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 As we speak. Smartphones, we smell it, new App Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't think it's crazy to say that next week might be one of the best weeks of our winter lives ever dec 17 2008 5 inches dec 19 2008 ~ one foot dec 20 2008 ongoing very light snow that never ended until... dec 21 2008 ~ one foot All done with deep cold in place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I don't recall exactly what I was debating you about, but I never argued for a mid-winter epic cold return by the middle of the month. I did argue that we could get snow events by then and that is exactly what happened. I think I recall you saying that nobody in New England would see -20C 850 temps from this cold shot as well. We actually ended up getting -20C near the MA/NH border. Well I talk in specifics which will sometimes (most of the time!) be wrong, you offer vague broad brush statements like the word epic and patience and tell us what the models may be showing. It's all good. Different styles, you have a methodical, very conservative approach which usually is rewarded. But in fairness if you're going to make the point about a 5+ day lead on the cold not making it 500 miles south, I'll make the point that on the morning of the 16th you used about as strong a words as I've seen to put the kybosh on this system. You kind of did what you get wound up over me doing, pointing out what could go wrong. You said that thing isn't hitting us (last nights 2-5" on the cape) and even the day prior you were saying way ride right maybe ACK gets weenie snow..and later went on to say it was almost impossible to get it further NW (at that time most models were still missing FTMP) That was on a 24-48 hour lead....none of us are perfect. Epic storm nope, but more than weenie snows for quite a few down here. I was wrong on this cold shot, no problems admitting that you got me, guilty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 this is no crap. My Euro 2m Temps for Wed, 8 am -4, 12 PM -13, 5pm -7 yes thats F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Just don't want anything to go wrong with the little one..lol. Like car not starting. Should be safe unless you're riding with Ray. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 this is no crap. My Euro 2m Temps for Wed, 8 am -4, 12 PM -13, 5pm -7 yes thats F My maps look nothing like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Should be safe unless you're riding with Ray. wow that hurts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 My maps look nothing like that. talk to me, what the hell is Wunderground smokin., pump me some numbers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 talk to me, what the hell is Wunderground smokin., pump me some numbers Wundergorund looks pretty accurate to me...it has sfc temps in the mid to upper teens for you on Wed afternoon. Careful not to confuse the dotted line with the shading. The dotted line is dewpoints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Yeah a lot will depend on that storm Friday...it wouldn't shock me though if it was one of those 1994-style storms (or hell, 2005) where its snowing at 14F in BOS if we keep the winds from coming onshore or stay light. The airmass will be very well entrenched by the end of next week, likely with snow cover all the way to the coast as well since that inverted trough should have a good chance to replenish any coastal areas that have lost snow or will lose it tomorrow.What kind of snows can you envision for the Monday night storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 talk to me, what the hell is Wunderground smokin., pump me some numbers Let me look at WU. If I had to estimate Wed-Thu for you I'd say W 12z L10s, 18z MU10s, Th 00z 10, 06z, M0s, 12z LM0s BTW...on WU the color shadings are 2m temps in degC and the dashed contours are 2m dews in degC. I think you confused the two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Why is JOE D saying to add on 5-7 degrees on MOS next week on Twitter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 What kind of snows can you envision for the Monday night storm? Right now I'm guessing a lot of inverted trough stuff. 1-3" type snow but you always have to be careful of a band that sets up somewhere in that which can drop 6-10"....that would likely be somewhere in E MA. Of course, it could still trend into something more robust. I really don't have a great feel for the 1/22 event right now. But its Friday, I'll worry more about it this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Tell you what. Now that its d6-7, 1994 may walk throught the door after all! I've been waiting for 19 years. Nothing has been as good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Right now I'm guessing a lot of inverted trough stuff. 1-3" type snow but you always have to be careful of a band that sets up somewhere in that which can drop 6-10"....that would likely be somewhere in E MA. Of course, it could still trend into something more robust. I really don't have a great feel for the 1/22 event right now. But its Friday, I'll worry more about it this weekend. High fluff maybe we can tickle out 3-6 inch amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Tell you what. Now that its d6-7, 1994 may walk throught the door after all! I've been waiting for 19 years. Nothing has been as good.If this period ends up epic, Scooter owes you beer, wine, sangria and an apology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 Let me look at WU. If I had to estimate Wed-Thu for you I'd say W 12z L10s, 18z MU10s, Th 00z 10, 06z, M0s, 12z LM0s BTW...on WU the color shadings are 2m temps in degC and the dashed contours are 2m dews in degC. I think you confused the two. epic fail on my part, need to see Jerry, new glasses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 High fluff maybe we can tickle out 3-6 inch amounts We'll need more qpf than is currently modeled to get that...high fluff or not. But we'll see how it looks in another day or so. We'll prob want to see that trough trend sharper in the next 24h to really have a shot at something large from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 If this period ends up epic, Scooter owes you beer, wine, sangria and an apology Nah... Nothing but hugs and high 5s. 2 more aoa days till we go deep for a good long spell! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 We'll need more qpf than is currently modeled to get that...high fluff or not. But we'll see how it looks in another day or so. We'll prob want to see that trough trend sharper in the next 24h to really have a shot at something large from it. You and your qpf fetish.. Down here in md. It's a bit milder (41) than the current 17.5 at the pit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 We'll need more qpf than is currently modeled to get that...high fluff or not. But we'll see how it looks in another day or so. We'll prob want to see that trough trend sharper in the next 24h to really have a shot at something large from it.Lets just get thru a weekend of mid- upper 30's and then we're at the gates of the promised land. Hopefully they are unlocked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 EC ens are really cold d15..pretty crazy for a mean that far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 EC ens are really cold d15..pretty crazy for a mean that far out. It's increasingly looking that this winter will be the first since 2007 to not poop out in February. Back ended winter and Morch returns to March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 EC ens are really cold d15..pretty crazy for a mean that far out. Yeah that matches the weeklies that have been showing a big reload for a time now for early February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Right now I'm guessing a lot of inverted trough stuff. 1-3" type snow but you always have to be careful of a band that sets up somewhere in that which can drop 6-10"....that would likely be somewhere in E MA. Of course, it could still trend into something more robust. I really don't have a great feel for the 1/22 event right now. But its Friday, I'll worry more about it this weekend. Excellent! I think one of the issues is the pros are sometimes hesitant to say anything for fear of the "you're wrong" crowd. The result is hobbyists and pros afraid to say much for fear of being wrong (aside of Kevin who has no problems jumping right back on the horse to his credit). Most everyone appreciates all the input and realizes no forecast or forecaster is perfect. Appreciate your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Sunday morning thru early afternoon could be quite impressive. Howling Sw winds then howling NW winds and squalls. Ginx may get his Windex on Sunday. Hints if it on models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 Sunday morning thru early afternoon could be quite impressive. Howling Sw winds then howling NW winds and squalls. Ginx may get his Windex on Sunday. Hints if it on models I'm not high on WINDEX yet...would like to see the soundings raise the inversion on Sunday. Looks like we choke out a few flurries with 40mph NW winds later on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm not high on WINDEX yet...would like to see the soundings raise the inversion on Sunday. Looks like we choke out a few flurries with 40mph NW winds later on Sunday.posts from Sw Ct Sun morn with temp of 39 wondering where the cold is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 18, 2013 Share Posted January 18, 2013 posts from Sw Ct Sun morn with temp of 39 wondering where the cold is? Yeah the high temps are likely going to be during the morning on Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 18, 2013 Author Share Posted January 18, 2013 I'm not high on WINDEX yet...would like to see the soundings raise the inversion on Sunday. Looks like we choke out a few flurries with 40mph NW winds later on Sunday. I want to see it as Brady releases his first pass as it gets blown back into his face Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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