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SNE winter 2013 banter thread for the final 2/3 left

Ginx snewx

By Ginx snewx,
in New England

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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I agree with Q mans thoughts too. While the PV reconsolidates, the EPO or NW Canada ridging along with ridgng from NW Russia will help keep the colder air in Canada. This combined with energy undercutting the ridge will give birth to storms. While the storm track may shift west, some models do try to build a -NAO too. This is all contingent on the MJO too. I'm not using analogs like he is, just analyzing pattern. I think the winter ending after valentines day may be preliminary.

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QVectorman

QVectorman

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Also, lets get QVectormans take. HM is skeptical of winters demise in mid feb.

Still going with last week's idea that the vortex is forecasted to re-consolidate by the 29th As a result, the main PV will restrengthen it's vortex walls and the gushing cold air faucet will be turned off. Just as there is a 1-3 week lag for it to arrive here there should be a 1-3 week lag of the last pockets of cold air to arrive down here in the US. Which would line up to carry us through with colder air to just about middle of Feb. So the last 2 weeks of Feb I think we will see normal to slightly above normal anomalies take over the East coast. As the AO starts its accent into more consistent positive territory after Jan 29....when the PV re-consolidates. Also matches up with the MJO dynamical forecasts that would take us into phase 2/3 by mid Feb resulting in a warmer or more seasonable scenario for the last half of Feb. I just have a feeling when using the strat. and GWO analogs that the base state of the 850 temps for Feb will be warmer so the cooler air won't be as cold over the region like we have for the end of Jan. Snowfall across the region looks about normal to slightly above normal. Big winners look like a line from KS to upper WI for Feb. I think as the general storm track shifts west with a -PNA for the second half of the month.

 

I don't see the demise of winter though. My 3 month analogs have March running near normal across the NE and below normal for the GLKS. So there is a gradient there. Along with a snow gradient...GLKS cashes in for March's while the NE can either be near normal or just horrendous snowfall totals. Seems to be dependent on the PDO. If the PDO can avg. above .5 for about 4-6 weeks during Feb or early March then the NE sees near normal snowfall if the PDO is below .5 or negative the NE get's screwed. And with a PDO>.5 the NE sees below normal temps also. IDK...just and interesting trend I noticed in my neutral ENSO years. Who knows if it's statistically significant.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

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I hope the things you've been pointing to as possible good signs are going to come to fruition man but it's just been frustrating so far.  26" at 1k in NW CT going into Feb?  That's not good papa ginx

It is what it is snowfall wise, I would not bag it yet but everyman for himself. You skiing much?

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wxsniss

wxsniss

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Font colors have never worked inside of code tags. And not to be defensive, but the server wasn't upgraded. The software was updated to seal up security issues and like any update, IPB throws in new bells and whistles that are sometimes initially buggy.

 

Thanks man. I know none of you guys actually do any of the coding... I'm sure Invision has lots of customers complaining. For the most part, things were great until this recent software upgrade, but the kinks will get worked out.

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wxsniss

wxsniss

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sne is just not that snowy of a place, esp on the CP, there is really no other way around it,  your memories of great winters, and storms, are outliers, it doesn't make sense to put forth expectation and emotion of winter's satisfaction based on long shots.  seems the average wx for the cp of sne in winter is meh anyway.

 

i mean bos did go 10 straight years on the chart posted above without a 55 inch winter. sure we can get a KU bomb , yup and for one day , we look like sierra mtns. and we remember it for the rest of our lives, but i need more snow. it just doesn't make sense to be miserable 8 out of 10 winters....waiting for the random great winter. and as a snow lover i can't really lower my winter expectations to accpet my climo on the CP. it's not good, and there no way of obfuscating the matter. further out in the elevated interior where averages are 60 and above and frz rain and icing is a serous concern, i think it's a tad different of a story. But the CP, no sorry it sucks on ave for a snow lover. I'm dealing with it

 

Yeah, our expectations get skewed by the occasional KU or 93-94 SWFE-fest. Boston climatology fosters a bad gambler's addiction, with a "variable reward ratio" of just enough KUs, and we keep yearning for that big snowstorm because of that once-every-few-years spectacular KU jackpot that makes us forget the much more likely meh.

 

That said, this winter sucks so far.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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sne is just not that snowy of a place, esp on the CP, there is really no other way around it, your memories of great winters, and storms, are outliers, it doesn't make sense to put forth expectation and emotion of winter's satisfaction based on long shots. seems the average wx for the cp of sne in winter is meh anyway.

i mean bos did go 10 straight years on the chart posted above without a 55 inch winter. sure we can get a KU bomb , yup and for one day , we look like sierra mtns. and we remember it for the rest of our lives, but i need more snow. it just doesn't make sense to be miserable 8 out of 10 winters....waiting for the random great winter. and as a snow lover i can't really lower my winter expectations to accpet my climo on the CP. it's not good, and there no way of obfuscating the matter. further out in the elevated interior where averages are 60 and above and frz rain and icing is a serous concern, i think it's a tad different of a story. But the CP, no sorry it sucks on ave for a snow lover. I'm dealing with it

Dude...this is totally born out of the last 12+ months and that's all.

The CP doesn't usually get 9" of snow in a winter.

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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Yeah, our expectations get skewed by the occasional KU or 93-94 SWFE-fest. Boston climatology fosters a bad gambler's addiction, with a "variable reward ratio" of KUs, and we keep yearning for that big snowstorm because of that once-every-few-years spectacular KU jackpot that makes us forget the much more likely meh.

 

That said, this winter sucks so far.

i guess that is all that i am saying. it's ez  to get caught up in the winter hype, and all but bottom line, its just not that snowy of a place, if your a snow lover. there are certainly epic highs but they are few and far between.   go inland and up to 850' elevation and it solidly improves but meh is much more likely for boston. i mean granted we aren't dc, philly/balt nyc but we are still not that snowy. (in bos) lots of rainers, lots of heartache, BL issues, even out thru 128. by 495 you get alot more icing situ's which i value because i just can stand non frozen qpf in winter.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

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i guess that is all that i am saying. it's ez  to get caught up in the winter hype, and all but bottom line, its just not that snowy of a place, if your a snow lover. there are certainly epic highs but they are few and far between.   go inland and up to 850' elevation and it solidly improves but meh is much more likely for boston. i mean granted we aren't dc, philly/balt nyc but we are still not that snowy. (in bos) lots of rainers, lots of heartache, BL issues, even out thru 128. by 495 you get alot more icing situ's which i value because i just can stand non frozen qpf in winter.

Do you know how to capitalize words? It makes things impossible to read when people don't capitalize letters of sentences

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N. OF PIKE

N. OF PIKE

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Dude...this is totally born out of the last 12+ months and that's all.

The CP doesn't usually get 9" of snow in a winter.

 no it isn't born out of the last year and a half only. i can think critically.

 

i grew up in se mass till i was 18 , i remember the winters, and the cape is worse. it's mostly meh and it's not that snowy of a place. every now and again we get a good winter but it's less than 50% in bos/ se mass / cape.

 

Yes 9" isn't a number the CP typically gets lol, but i mean 25-30 doesn't do it for me either. I mean i like snow, alot. I drive hundreds of miles to get to it. I want it. i'm just saying more times than not winters are meh on the coast.  

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Dude...this is totally born out of the last 12+ months and that's all.

The CP doesn't usually get 9" of snow in a winter.

no it isn't born out of the last year and a half only. i can think critically.

i grew up in se mass till i was 18 , i remember the winters, and the cape is worse. it's mostly meh and it's not that snowy of a place. every now and again we get a good winter but it's less than 50% in bos/ se mass / cape.

Well yeah it's not the Green Mountains but its not nearly as bad as you're making it out to be.

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