2013 Global Temperatures

[Jonger]

I wonder how much of a role the slow hurricane season is having on those SSTA in the north Atlantic, there hasn't been many storms to churn the surface temps up.

Those temps are more a reflection of a lack of storms than anything.

http://www.rsmas.miami.edu/blog/2012/10/22/what-happens-underwater-during-a-hurricane/

[donsutherland1]

Looks like ENSO has been cooling off a bit in recent weeks.  The CFSv2 and Euro both predicted near term drop in ENSO this month with a rebound coming later this fall and winter.  Would be interesting to see if it comes to fruition. 

 

The statistical models still suggest a December-February ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly that is neutral but on the cool side of normal, possibly borderline La Niña at times. Throughout the year and also last winter, those models have outperformed the dynamical models. The latter models had been suggesting the development of a fall-winter El Niño earlier in the year, but have been cooling since then. They now largely support neutral ENSO conditions.

[The_Global_Warmer]

CFS has cooled off a  bit thanks to a cool Africa and cold Eurasia.  Cool is relative though.  CFS is 0.077C so far in October.  Only UAH is in for Sept at .367C+. 

 

 

However the arctic is warming up apparently.  It was running around 1.0C for a while.  Recent runs have seen a double to 2C.  In-spite of quick ice growth it's still not cold(VS Climo) up there.

 

 

 

 

 

Until we see a decline we haven't seen the brunt of the warmth.

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The statistical models still suggest a December-February ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly that is neutral but on the cool side of normal, possibly borderline La Niña at times. Throughout the year and also last winter, those models have outperformed the dynamical models. The latter models had been suggesting the development of a fall-winter El Niño earlier in the year, but have been cooling since then. They now largely support neutral ENSO conditions.

 

 

Don, if we get an NINO.  Does the WPAC cool?  Or will it be like this.  Where its torching North.  Warm West.  Very very warm SWPAC. 

 

 

 

 

[GaWx]

Don, if we get an NINO.  Does the WPAC cool?  Or will it be like this.  Where its torching North.  Warm West.  Very very warm SWPAC. 

  

Friv,

I can assure you that the odds of an official Nino in time for winter are extremely small. Looking at the 38 fall and/or winter Ninos going back to the 1870's, there has not been a single one when the preceding August's Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, much less the preceding September's Nino 3.4 SST anomaly, wasn't at least in small positive territory. Well, August wasn't even all that close to positive territory with it having been at -.028 C. After a rise of September to -0.03 (but even it wasn't quite in positive territory), the 3.4 weekly has since fallen back to -0.30 as of the calendar week centered on 10/3/13. So, we've still not made it to positive territory, even in a single calendar week! Therefore, based on SST history for the last 38 Ninos, I'm thinking there's a well under 5% chance for a Nino in time for this winter. The earliest I can realistically see one would be the spring or summer of 2014. I'm saying that only because the spring/summer of 2014 is too far out in time to be able to predict ENSO from the preceding October and sometimes there is a sharp change in spring or summer.

[The_Global_Warmer]

I am not looking for whether we will have one.

 

I am just assuming if the Eastern Pacific warms somewhere cools or it will be record balmy on Earth quick.  I do not know the loading pattern for a +ENSO/-PDO.

[GaWx]

I am not looking for whether we will have one.

 

I am just assuming if the Eastern Pacific warms somewhere cools or it will be record balmy on Earth quick.  I do not know the loading pattern for a +ENSO/-PDO.

Friv,

I don't know whether or not this will help you: the chances of a Nino during any fall/winter during a -PDO regime are lower than the chances during a +PDO regime, which is somewhat intuitive. However, the chances of a WEAK Nino, alone, actually appear to be higher during a -PDO regime than during a +PDO regime. Now, that is probably somewhat counterintuitive. However, I think I know how to explain that. A -PDO regime certainly favors Ninas over Ninos due to the SST anomaly configuration tendencies of a -PDO. It sort of tends to fight back against the formation of a Nino. However, sometimes a Nino will still form. But when the Nino is able to form, it will tend to be on the weaker side vs. how it tends to be when there is a +PDO regime. The result is a higher chance at a weak Nino but a good bit lower chance at a moderate to strong Nino during a -PDO regime.

[The_Global_Warmer]

Here is an example of why.  If we had a strong NINO come.  Global SSTA would crush records.  Unless somewhere else dramtically cooled off.  Look at this spatially.  If the winds change to warm the East Pacific will the West cool?

 

Don't this the wrong way.  But I am pursing knowledge of ENSO to fain more knowledge of global ssta to help learn more about global temps in general. The West Pacific isn't boiling by no means but its warm.  If the East Pacific had a strong to severe NINO would the North Pacific cool?  Typically the North Atlantic warms 3-6 months after ENSO if my peak correlations are correct. 

 

 

 

My major interest is clear.  It's very warm in the oceans right now.  I am very curious to how much heat is goign to be retained the next couple of years.  2013 OHC so far has gone up a lot vs 2012 and is well above 2005 and 2010.  However that is heat in the water.  Until it's air bound it's not showing up on GISS or UAH.

 

 

[GaWx]

Friv,

I don't know if this helps: when there is a severely strong Nino, the PDO is likely to be positive. During a +PDO, that current very warm area of the north Pacific would cool down considerably, probably to the point where there is actually a cool anomaly there since the PDO is calculated by taking the east northern Pacific SST anomaly and subtracting the area bounded by 150 west to 150 east and 30 north to 50 north. So, that second area out in the central part of the north Pacific is usually blue as opposed to red when there is a +PDO.

[ORH_wxman]

Friv,

I don't know if this helps: when there is a severely strong Nino, the PDO is likely to be positive. During a +PDO, that current very warm area of the north Pacific would cool down considerably, probably to the point where there is actually a cool anomaly there since the PDO is calculated by taking the east northern Pacific SST anomaly and subtracting the area bounded by 150 west to 150 east and 30 north to 50 north. So, that second area out in the central part of the north Pacific is usually blue as opposed to red when there is a +PDO.

 

 

Yeah a +PDO will invert the N PAC SST configuration...the very warm pool south fo the Aleutians will go to a cold pool and the GOA will warm up. Additionally, the cool anomalies along the W coast of North America and Central America will invert into warm anomalies

[donsutherland1]

Don, if we get an NINO.  Does the WPAC cool?  Or will it be like this.  Where its torching North.  Warm West.  Very very warm SWPAC. 

 

 

 

 

It would likely cool, as the PDO- is at least dented. My guess is that odds of an El Niño this winter are very low (probably around 5%) and that neutral ENSO conditions are probably most likely (probably around a 2-in-3 or 3-in-4 chance).

[The_Global_Warmer]

Thanks.  Weatherbell has dropped a bit more to .065C for the months.  Thanks to extensive cold continents.  South America, Africa, Most of Eastern Europe, Russia, Western NA, and GIS. 

 

 

I expect it to wobble around the current number a bit then go back up. 

 

We won't be getting data for NCDC, RSS, or GISSTEMP until the Govt shutdown is over.

[Snow_Miser]

Using IPCC terminology,

 

It is extremely likely that October will be cooler than September.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2012.png

[The_Global_Warmer]

We will see.  I think we are going to slowly warm up the next week.

 

 

I expect UAH to be .40C+ for October.  Currently CFS is .52C for October.  It was .170C for September.  We have yet to see what GISS, RSS, and NCDC were for September.  I believe UAH will be warmer in October because before the govt shutdown it was tops on AMSU channel 6 by a lot. 

 

 

The arctic is very warm on the forecasts.  The Antartctic should cool off a bit.  But

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

But after cooling off now for a few weeks.  Some stronger ENSO warmth is blowing up.  Heat is also collecting over the Southern Indian Ocean.  The Arctic is starting to cool.

 

Ther NE Pacific after cooling off will quicky go back warm.

 

 

 

 

 

 

global SSTA have dropped to .251C+.  I expect this to sti about here.  Probably rise a little bit this week.

 

 

 

 

[nzucker]

We will see.  I think we are going to slowly warm up the next week.

 

 

I expect UAH to be .40C+ for October.  Currently CFS is .52C for October.  It was .170C for September.  We have yet to see what GISS, RSS, and NCDC were for September.  I believe UAH will be warmer in October because before the govt shutdown it was tops on AMSU channel 6 by a lot. 

 

 

The arctic is very warm on the forecasts.  The Antartctic should cool off a bit.  But

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

A lot of the reason for the 2m temperature anomalies being high over the Arctic is the rapid freezing of the ice. When ice freezes, it has to release heat to the atmosphere in order to accomplish a phase change. If the ice were to freeze slower, this heat would be released more gradually; however, given the rapid build-up of sea ice this fall, we're seeing a quick release of the heat. So, in many ways, the warm anomalies at 2m that you're seeing are a good thing, and don't reflect 850mb temperatures, which have been quite cold on the Asian side of the Arctic. If you look at the 0z ECM, extremely cold air of -16C to -20C is pressing south from the North Pole into the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, and yet your maps aren't reflecting that because the cold air is actually causing a release of heat at the surface. In order to ascertain what type of airmass is over the Arctic during freezing period, you'd want to use 850s. Thus, your map is partly deceiving.

[The_Global_Warmer]

A lot of the reason for the 2m temperature anomalies being high over the Arctic is the rapid freezing of the ice. When ice freezes, it has to release heat to the atmosphere in order to accomplish a phase change. If the ice were to freeze slower, this heat would be released more gradually; however, given the rapid build-up of sea ice this fall, we're seeing a quick release of the heat. So, in many ways, the warm anomalies at 2m that you're seeing are a good thing, and don't reflect 850mb temperatures, which have been quite cold on the Asian side of the Arctic. If you look at the 0z ECM, extremely cold air of -16C to -20C is pressing south from the North Pole into the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, and yet your maps aren't reflecting that because the cold air is actually causing a release of heat at the surface. In order to ascertain what type of airmass is over the Arctic during freezing period, you'd want to use 850s. Thus, your map is partly deceiving.

 

 

 

Not sure how.  It depicts the surface temperatures.  So does GISS, NCDC, Hadcrut4.  We watch CFS to track temps which is close to GFS output.  So I don't see the issue.  If the atmosphere is cold at 5000k feet UAH and RSS will pick it up.

[skierinvermont]

A lot of the reason for the 2m temperature anomalies being high over the Arctic is the rapid freezing of the ice. When ice freezes, it has to release heat to the atmosphere in order to accomplish a phase change. If the ice were to freeze slower, this heat would be released more gradually; however, given the rapid build-up of sea ice this fall, we're seeing a quick release of the heat. So, in many ways, the warm anomalies at 2m that you're seeing are a good thing, and don't reflect 850mb temperatures, which have been quite cold on the Asian side of the Arctic. If you look at the 0z ECM, extremely cold air of -16C to -20C is pressing south from the North Pole into the Barents Sea and Fram Strait, and yet your maps aren't reflecting that because the cold air is actually causing a release of heat at the surface. In order to ascertain what type of airmass is over the Arctic during freezing period, you'd want to use 850s. Thus, your map is partly deceiving.

 

The warm anomalies are not due to nor indicative of a fast re-freeze. Cooler anomalies would likely indicate a fast-refreeze. The fast re-freeze has occurred because the warm anomalies are not as great as in the slow re-freeze years. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Using IPCC terminology,

 

It is extremely likely that October will be cooler than September.

 

http://models.weatherbell.com/climate/cfsr_t2m_2012.png

 

Probably.  CFS reached rocketed back up to .25C on the real time charts though.   Overall it's warmed back up .01 to .06C. 

 

 

The 18Z GFS now predicts the arctic region to be 2.5C above normal for the next 8-9 days. 

 

 

I doubt this month takes a run at .17C on CFS now.  But I think .10C is in the bag. 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

As expected CFS has started to show big warm anomalies again.  The dailies are above 0.2C right now.  They took a big jump yesterday probably because of the huge WAA going on in Russia. 

 

 

The PV has slide back into the arctic basin where it will help cold air pool.  But for now this won't translate to the surface very well.  The Euro moves the PV into the arctic and keeps it there for the next 10 days.  This will allow Eurasia to warm for the most part.  Probably not good for keep global temps down. 

 

 

So anyways with the last few days of warming.  CFS is now at .072C for October.  That will easily go up the next few days at least.

 

 

AMSU channel 6 temps are updating again.  They are now 2nd warmest on record for this date.  Slightly below 2002.

 

 

This means they started the month holding the record and by the 17th they slide a bit below 2002 for 2nd highest.  This gives me very strong confidence that UAH will come in between .30 and .40C+ for October.

[The_Global_Warmer]

No September data yet for GISS and NCDC.  RSS came in at .257C for September.  about .10C less than UAH.  Mostly because of Antarctica not being included on RSS South of 70 degrees. It's not a large area but the anomalies as we saw on the CFS chart were pretty warm over it.  RSS is probably to warm when the same region is anomously cold.

 

CFS has been sitting around .070C for the last few days.  I would expect the huge trough over NA to keep global temps down a bit.  Then back up when the Westerlies start raging and thec cold is sitting over the oceans and arctic basin.

[The_Global_Warmer]

NCDC has come in for September.  The details are below.

 

Does anyone know why the NCDC charts blob out the poles?  Are they not included in the NCDC global temp record?

 

 

• The combined average temperature over global land and ocean surfaces for September 2013 tied with 2003 as the fourth highest for September on record, at 0.64°C (1.15°F) above the 20^th century average of 15.0°C (59.0°F).
• The global land surface temperature was 0.89°C (1.60°F) above the 20^th century average of 12.0°C (53.6°F), marking the sixth warmest September on record. For the ocean, the September global sea surface temperature was 0.54°C (0.97°F) above the 20^th century average of 16.2°C (61.1°F), tying with 2006 as the fourth highest for September on record.
• The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for the January–September period (year-to-date) was 0.60°C (1.08°F) above the 20^th century average of 14.1°C (57.5°F), tying with 2003 as the sixth warmest such period on record.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[nflwxman]

NCDC has come in for September.  The details are below.

 

Does anyone know why the NCDC charts blob out the poles?  Are they not included in the NCDC global temp record?

 

 

 

 

 

 

NCDC does not include the data coverage at the poles that GISS or to a lesser degree, HadCrut4 does.

[A-L-E-K]

wow, torch city

[ORH_wxman]

Probably.  CFS reached rocketed back up to .25C on the real time charts though.   Overall it's warmed back up .01 to .06C. 

 

 

The 18Z GFS now predicts the arctic region to be 2.5C above normal for the next 8-9 days. 

 

 

I doubt this month takes a run at .17C on CFS now.  But I think .10C is in the bag.

 

 

 

 

 

 

+0.05C with 2 days left.

[LakeEffectKing]

 

wow, torch city

Yep....kinda inline with the last 16 years:

1997 9 0.6083

1997 10 0.6399

1997 11 0.5598

1997 12 0.6261

1998 1 0.5982

1998 2 0.8515

1998 3 0.6403

1998 4 0.7352

1998 5 0.6587

1998 6 0.6548

1998 7 0.7256

1998 8 0.6898

1998 9 0.5280

1998 10 0.4813

1998 11 0.4072

1998 12 0.5738

1999 1 0.5183

1999 2 0.6938

1999 3 0.3669

1999 4 0.4705

1999 5 0.3999

1999 6 0.4237

1999 7 0.4187

1999 8 0.3793

1999 9 0.4006

1999 10 0.3830

1999 11 0.3715

1999 12 0.5792

2000 1 0.3249

2000 2 0.5332

2000 3 0.5302

2000 4 0.6353

2000 5 0.4821

2000 6 0.4170

2000 7 0.3969

2000 8 0.4653

2000 9 0.4467

2000 10 0.3064

2000 11 0.2466

2000 12 0.3079

2001 1 0.4614

2001 2 0.4045

2001 3 0.6399

2001 4 0.5754

2001 5 0.6037

2001 6 0.5448

2001 7 0.5679

2001 8 0.6071

2001 9 0.4937

2001 10 0.4851

2001 11 0.6810

2001 12 0.5041

2002 1 0.7051

2002 2 0.7878

2002 3 0.7809

2002 4 0.5684

2002 5 0.5674

2002 6 0.6051

2002 7 0.6222

2002 8 0.5337

2002 9 0.5692

2002 10 0.4893

2002 11 0.6066

2002 12 0.4581

2003 1 0.7025

2003 2 0.5745

2003 3 0.5590

2003 4 0.5523

2003 5 0.6004

2003 6 0.5524

2003 7 0.5545

2003 8 0.6317

2003 9 0.6357

2003 10 0.7342

2003 11 0.5833

2003 12 0.7455

2004 1 0.6010

2004 2 0.7193

2004 3 0.6953

2004 4 0.5893

2004 5 0.4683

2004 6 0.4879

2004 7 0.4772

2004 8 0.4879

2004 9 0.5246

2004 10 0.6054

2004 11 0.7524

2004 12 0.4938

2005 1 0.6105

2005 2 0.4976

2005 3 0.6764

2005 4 0.7181

2005 5 0.6523

2005 6 0.6732

2005 7 0.6468

2005 8 0.6176

2005 9 0.6763

2005 10 0.6877

2005 11 0.7156

2005 12 0.6096

2006 1 0.4550

2006 2 0.5974

2006 3 0.5763

2006 4 0.4909

2006 5 0.5386

2006 6 0.6322

2006 7 0.5957

2006 8 0.5968

2006 9 0.6100

2006 10 0.6660

2006 11 0.6330

2006 12 0.7523

2007 1 0.8551

2007 2 0.6421

2007 3 0.6503

2007 4 0.7126

2007 5 0.5800

2007 6 0.5067

2007 7 0.4971

2007 8 0.5153

2007 9 0.5662

2007 10 0.5384

2007 11 0.5112

2007 12 0.4734

2008 1 0.2501

2008 2 0.3513

2008 3 0.7377

2008 4 0.4469

2008 5 0.4734

2008 6 0.5088

2008 7 0.5312

2008 8 0.5039

2008 9 0.4837

2008 10 0.6353

2008 11 0.6505

2008 12 0.5371

2009 1 0.5534

2009 2 0.5265

2009 3 0.5456

2009 4 0.6242

2009 5 0.5535

2009 6 0.6288

2009 7 0.5908

2009 8 0.6438

2009 9 0.6597

2009 10 0.5969

2009 11 0.6298

2009 12 0.5733

2010 1 0.6440

2010 2 0.6828

2010 3 0.7936

2010 4 0.7763

2010 5 0.7183

2010 6 0.6872

2010 7 0.6770

2010 8 0.5999

2010 9 0.5217

2010 10 0.5849

2010 11 0.7412

2010 12 0.4531

2011 1 0.4212

2011 2 0.4455

2011 3 0.5415

2011 4 0.6098

2011 5 0.5313

2011 6 0.6044

2011 7 0.5893

2011 8 0.5663

2011 9 0.5522

2011 10 0.5943

2011 11 0.4576

2011 12 0.4896

2012 1 0.3870

2012 2 0.3832

2012 3 0.4745

2012 4 0.6828

2012 5 0.6791

2012 6 0.6602

2012 7 0.6300

2012 8 0.6104

2012 9 0.6706

2012 10 0.6527

2012 11 0.6616

2012 12 0.4100

2013 1 0.5470

2013 2 0.6022

2013 3 0.5800

2013 4 0.5194

2013 5 0.6724

2013 6 0.6376

2013 7 0.6039

2013 8 0.6055

2013 9 0.6375

[Jonger]

wow, torch city

Same temp as 16 years ago, which was also a neutral ENSO year.

Edit: I will withdraw the ENSO reference, I was off by about 5 months on this one... bad chart.

[LakeEffectKing]

 

+0.05C with 2 days left.

 ....bag had a hole in it...

[ORH_wxman]

Same temp as 16 years ago, which was also a neutral ENSO year.

 

#Hiatusisreal

 

 

16 years ago was the strongest El Nino on record in the middle of forming. The effects were evident on global temps by 9/97.

[Jonger]

Do you have a month by month chart of that period? I thought it took off just after Sept.