2013 Global Temperatures

[tacoman25]

I think this September will end up cooler in the Arctic than last, though. Especially with the very cold conditions progged for the Russian side starting soon.

[The_Global_Warmer]

We can see

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The arctic isn't as warm. But the impact is similar because the baselines are the same.  The difference this year is Antarctica is torching.  Which is also going to be much warmer on GISS vs this baseline.

 

 

 

Lastly global SSTA are warmer. 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

As we talked about.  SSTA in the North Central Pacific continue to quickly warm up.  While SSTA over the GOA have cooled off during the same time frame.  The trade off is the warming region is much larger than the cooling region and is much warmer than the cooling region is cool.

 

 

The North Central Atlantic continues to have the fire-hose from the shores of East Central NA to  between England and Portugal.  The equatorial Atlantic has also warmed up quite a bit the last few days. 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Anyone have that SSTA chart above extending more than a year? I want to see individual months instead of years.

[The_Global_Warmer]

AMSU Channel 6 temps the last week have risen dramatically.  They are only below 2002 and 2010.  And have moved above 2005 which sees large drop the next week. 

 

http://ghrc.nsstc.nasa.gov/amsutemps/data/amsu_daily_85N85S_ch06.r003.txt

 

 

With 8 days left.  CFS sits at .153C.  This translates to a .70C(.65-.75C) on GISS. 

 

 

 

The AAO plummets negative even further.  Before forecast to head back up into not as negative territory. 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Global SSTA came in under .30C(roughly) for the first time in over 8 weeks.  Down to .2875.

 

 

 

Cooling over the GOA has continued as well as over the Coastal NW US/CA.  Warming over the north Central Pacific has continued to expand. 

 

 

[tacoman25]

-PDO regime looks to be re-establishing itself in the North Pacific.

[Jonger]

Will lose many of those arctic SST anomalies soon as they freeze over, I know its not a huge area, but the Kara sea is definitely contributing some to that anomaly.

[tacoman25]

I think we will see a drop in global temps over the next 3-5 days with much colder air in western Canada/U.S., and very cold air starting to build in to Russia and that side of the Arctic as well. Antarctica continues to be the "hot" spot.

[ORH_wxman]

From now on, do not post weatherbell maps as images even though they are free. They are copyrighted and we don't want any issues. Just give the link to them. I think most of us know where to get them anyway.

[nflwxman]

I think we will see a drop in global temps over the next 3-5 days with much colder air in western Canada/U.S., and very cold air starting to build in to Russia and that side of the Arctic as well. Antarctica continues to be the "hot" spot.

The 12z GFS shows a drop in global temps the next 2-3 days and then it warms back up to day 8 as Antarctica continues to warm up.

 

The GFS has actually been really good at tracking the progress of global temperatures up to day 8 according to the weatherbell verification model.

 

Also, it appears much of the ENSO warmth over the past few weeks has been related to a propagating Kelvin wave, which appears to be subsiding.  I would image that 3.4 falls back into negative territory before warming up again later this fall.

[Wow]

sst anom 6 month animation

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Will lose many of those arctic SST anomalies soon as they freeze over, I know its not a huge area, but the Kara sea is definitely contributing some to that anomaly.

 

 

dude the Kara is contributing less than 0.01C of the global ssta

[ORH_wxman]

sst anom 6 month animation

 

 

 

Look how fast the GOA warm anomalies got chewed up and the warming SW of the Aleutians seems to be commencing again. That tells us that almost all of those were surface-induced from high pressure...the sub-surface there was still pretty cold...classic of -PDO signature. I expect the -PDO look to re-establish itself this autumn.

[The_Global_Warmer]

GOA ssts will sharply rise the next few days before falling with a sub 970mb SLP tanking over the GOA and sitting there. While a 596DM+ H5 ridge sits SW of it.  SSTA over the North Central Pacific especially Westwards towards Eastern Asia/Japan will blow torch. 

 

 

Both the GFS and Euro flip back to a large HP pressing into the GOA with the SLP pushed west over the Bering after day 7. 

 

 

 

[Jonger]

Look how fast the GOA warm anomalies got chewed up and the warming SW of the Aleutians seems to be commencing again. That tells us that almost all of those were surface-induced from high pressure...the sub-surface there was still pretty cold...classic of -PDO signature. I expect the -PDO look to re-establish itself this autumn.

 

Just takes a couple good storm systems to churn that surface warmth out.

[tacoman25]

Look how fast the GOA warm anomalies got chewed up and the warming SW of the Aleutians seems to be commencing again. That tells us that almost all of those were surface-induced from high pressure...the sub-surface there was still pretty cold...classic of -PDO signature. I expect the -PDO look to re-establish itself this autumn.

 

Exactly.

 

GOA ssts will sharply rise the next few days before falling with a sub 970mb SLP tanking over the GOA and sitting there. While a 596DM+ H5 ridge sits SW of it.  SSTA over the North Central Pacific especially Westwards towards Eastern Asia/Japan will blow torch. 

 

 

Both the GFS and Euro flip back to a large HP pressing into the GOA with the SLP pushed west over the Bering after day 7. 

 

 

 

I disagree...the next update will be even cooler. Looking at pressure gradients and progged air temperatures, most of the GOA and the west coast of North America should continue to cool for the forseeable future. By the end of the month, the GOA should have well below normal SSTAs.

[skierinvermont]

Will lose many of those arctic SST anomalies soon as they freeze over, I know its not a huge area, but the Kara sea is definitely contributing some to that anomaly.

 

I'd say another month and a half or two before the arctic stops torching due to the sea ice anomalies. Kara's not going to freeze for a while. By mid or late November the SIA anomalies usually shrink, and the areas that are anomalies have lost some of their heat built up from summer/fall albedo loss. 

[The_Global_Warmer]

The poles negate each other.  These a 60S-60N.  And are slightly warmer than with the poles.

 

 

 

 

[tacoman25]

I'd say another month and a half or two before the arctic stops torching due to the sea ice anomalies. Kara's not going to freeze for a while. By mid or late November the SIA anomalies usually shrink, and the areas that are anomalies have lost some of their heat built up from summer/fall albedo loss. 

 

Well, some of this depends on weather, of course. Given that way more of the Pacific side didn't melt out, the East Siberian is already rapidly re-freezing, and the Laptev and Chukchi should soon follow suit, there's a good chance the whole Pacific side will be close to 1971-2000 normals (as far as ice coverage) within 2-3 weeks.

[skierinvermont]

Well, some of this depends on weather, of course. Given that way more of the Pacific side didn't melt out, the East Siberian is already rapidly re-freezing, and the Laptev and Chukchi should soon follow suit, there's a good chance the whole Pacific side will be close to 1971-2000 normals (as far as ice coverage) within 2-3 weeks.

 

Right, but I will bet you there is a large area of open water left in the arctic in a month that is normally frozen already. That's latent heat which will keep the arctic warm. That's why fall has had the fastest warming in the arctic.

[bluewave]

Yeah, the greatest positive departures shift from mostly the Pacific side in October to the Atlantic in winter

as lower sea ice extent lingers near the Kara and Barents seas.

 

 

[nzucker]

Yeah, the greatest positive departures shift from mostly the Pacific side in October to the Atlantic in winter

as lower sea ice extent lingers near the Kara and Barents seas.

 

OCT.png

 

813.png

That area has just happened to have a lot of blocking, too, which explains the recent bitter cold in parts of Europe (especially the January/February 2012 outbreak in Southern Europe and North Africa, when snow fell on the beaches of Algiers.) A strong high pressure over the Kara Sea keeps the flow easterly into Europe, limiting the influence of the mild Atlantic Ocean and helping bring very chilly air from Siberia into the European continent. We've also seen high autumn snow cover and cold winters in Siberia recently, and this probably stems from the Kara blocking. 

 

Whether the low sea ice could be contributing to this pattern is, of course, part of the debate. It doesn't always have a direct effect, however. Summer 2007 had record low arctic sea ice extent and we saw one of the strongest +NAO/+AO patterns in recent history during Winter 07-08. Thus, it's difficult to attribute causation with a small sample size like this when you can find so many exceptions. 

[tacoman25]

Right, but I will bet you there is a large area of open water left in the arctic in a month that is normally frozen already. That's latent heat which will keep the arctic warm. That's why fall has had the fastest warming in the arctic.

 

Sure, the Atlantic side will still have more open water than normal, but the fact that a lot more of the Pacific side never melted out this year and is already rapidly freezing over means less latent heat than other recent years over a large portion of the Arctic.

[The_Global_Warmer]

The GFS is still likely under doing the Atlantic side anomalies.  Never the less.  Even with the progged cold over the Russian mainland the arctic by the GFS is going to be 1.0C+ the next 8 days.  It will almost surely be warmer than that.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

ENSO has warmed up considerably but it still much cooler than last year at this time.  Obviously the current warmth is coming from other places.  Never the less we do not appear to be heading towards the cooling we saw last winter.

 

 

 

 

 

TAO Triton has had issues with their sub surface reading near the 120W the last week or so.  But CPC shows the warming get split at the seams but there is still a strong bubble of warmth in the Eastern Equatorial sub surface.

 

 

 

Don't forget when looking at this image below.  How deceiving it can be.  Most of the Southern Hemisphere cold is along 55-60S.  Meaning it takes up far less area than the cold West of South America. 

 

While it's not very cold.  The East Central Pacific from 25N to 25S is relatively cool and takes up a lot of space.  The Indian Ocean North of 20S is pretty cool vs recent years as well. 

 

On the flip side the SSTA over the Northern Pacific has reorganized further South.  Another place is the North Atlantic where warmth has set up over lower latitudes as well. 

 

 

[bluewave]

That area has just happened to have a lot of blocking, too, which explains the recent bitter cold in parts of Europe (especially the January/February 2012 outbreak in Southern Europe and North Africa, when snow fell on the beaches of Algiers.) A strong high pressure over the Kara Sea keeps the flow easterly into Europe, limiting the influence of the mild Atlantic Ocean and helping bring very chilly air from Siberia into the European continent. We've also seen high autumn snow cover and cold winters in Siberia recently, and this probably stems from the Kara blocking. 

 

Whether the low sea ice could be contributing to this pattern is, of course, part of the debate. It doesn't always have a direct effect, however. Summer 2007 had record low arctic sea ice extent and we saw one of the strongest +NAO/+AO patterns in recent history during Winter 07-08. Thus, it's difficult to attribute causation with a small sample size like this when you can find so many exceptions. 

 

January 2008 featured the coldest January in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1980's. The strong blocking

that winter was in the KB region of the Arctic rather than the NAO and AO areas.

 

http://oceanrep.geomar.de/8738/

 

 

 

[ORH_wxman]

January 2008 featured the coldest January in the Northern Hemisphere since the 1980's. The strong blocking

that winter was in the KB region of the Arctic rather than the NAO and AO areas.

 

http://oceanrep.geomar.de/8738/

 

 

2008.png

 

500.png

 

 

Still a pretty solid +AO there though. I believe '07-'08 is the only winter since 1999-2000 that had all 3 months (DJF) each feature a solidly +AO. Before that, you have to go back to 1992-1993...though 1998-1999 was close, but Jan 1999 was basically neutral AO so I wouldn't quite qualify that winter.

[skierinvermont]

Sure, the Atlantic side will still have more open water than normal, but the fact that a lot more of the Pacific side never melted out this year and is already rapidly freezing over means less latent heat than other recent years over a large portion of the Arctic.

 

The anomalies are still way below the 1980s average. It's a lot of latent heat either way.

[bluewave]

Still a pretty solid +AO there though. I believe '07-'08 is the only winter since 1999-2000 that had all 3 months (DJF) each feature a solidly +AO. Before that, you have to go back to 1992-1993...though 1998-1999 was close, but Jan 1999 was basically neutral AO so I wouldn't quite qualify that winter.

 

The 07-08 winter was similar to the pattern that we saw in 2011-2012 with a +AO winter for us and record 

KB blocking and cold in Eurasia. The KB block since 2006 has actually averaged out as the greater

500 mb height anomaly for the Northern Hemisphere in the winter.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[The_Global_Warmer]

Aqua Channel 6, 7, and 8 are all now  at record warmth for this time of year.  Channel 7 and 8 more so than 6 but as of the 24th are all showing warming.  Which has been big in those channels the last 10 days.

 

 

Which also saw .10C shaved off the gloal ssta the last 2-3 weeks.  Coincidence, maybe.

 

 

The only thing to take from it is that UAH will probably be warm for September.  The last month with channel 6 temps near the top was June, which had a .30C+ on UAH.

 

 

Weatherbell is sitting at .147C with 4 days left.  That equates to roughly a .70C on GISS. 

 

 

 

 

The arctic isn't to bad I suppose.