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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Heavy rain, thunder and lightening, weak tornadoes and straight line winds.

What more do you want? The gates of hell to freeze over and hailstones the size of semi trucks to start falling? lol.

Lol I think you read my post wrong. I was asking what will make things interesting?

18z GFS much further east. Moves right over me.

NWS JACKSONVILLE DISCUSSION

SUN & MON...DETERIORATING WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED SUN AFTN & SUN NIGHT AS TROPICAL STORM KAREN BEGINS TO TRACK NE OVER THE SE STATES AFTER MAKING LANDFALL. GIVEN THE LATEST OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST TRACK...THE JAX FORECAST AREA WILL BE ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE STORM...RELATIVE TO STORM MOTION...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A PLUME OF DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE STORM TO POSITION OVER THE AREA WITH GOOD INFLOW FROM THE GOMEX. THUS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL REMAINS WITH SEVERE STORMS POSSESSING THE ABILITY TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND STRONG WINDS SUN AFTN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. STILL APPEARS THAT THE GREATEST POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER AT THIS TIME WILL BE OVER INLAND SE GA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF NE FL SUN. THE POTENTIAL ALSO EXISTS FOR STRONG STORMS MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE CENTER AS A TRAILING COLD FRONT PUSHES SSE OVER THE FORECAST AREA. CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE RAIN CHANCES OF 50-60% OVER INLAND SE GA/SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT.

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Jaydog

Jaydog

Posted
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Post landfall, this will likely be a "left of track" rain maker as the tropical moisture interacts with the incoming trof/front.  That is likely the Floyd comparison Fishel was making.  NWS RAH page has some great "right of track/left of track" articles worth reading. 

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Marion_NC_WX

Marion_NC_WX

Posted
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Robert (Foothills) put out an alert recently to his subscribers about the 18z GFS and the evolution of Karen post-landfall. I'm not going to provide any details of what he said but we need to see what the 0z shows.

 

Just looking at synoptics, this does like a possible "west of track" kind of system...if you noticed on the 700mb relative humidity maps, moisture really expands toward the Carolinas around time of landfall.

 

Anybody else notice how the rain pivots back toward the Appalachians on Monday...signs of a possible cutoff forming near the Apps?

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Disc

Disc

Posted
Posted

Robert (Foothills) put out an alert recently to his subscribers about the 18z GFS and the evolution of Karen post-landfall. I'm not going to provide any details of what he said but we need to see what the 0z shows.

 

Just looking at synoptics, this does like a possible "west of track" kind of system...if you noticed on the 700mb relative humidity maps, moisture really expands toward the Carolinas around time of landfall.

 

Anybody else notice how the rain pivots back toward the Appalachians on Monday...signs of a possible cutoff forming near the Apps?

 

That would indeed bring some nasty amounts of rain if it were to come to fruition. I'll be watching the 00z suite closely. 18z GFS brought 5"+ (not that I believe it this far out yet) amounts into my neck of the woods and as you noted, the rain definitely pivoted and stuck around longer.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Robert (Foothills) put out an alert recently to his subscribers about the 18z GFS and the evolution of Karen post-landfall. I'm not going to provide any details of what he said but we need to see what the 0z shows.

 

Just looking at synoptics, this does like a possible "west of track" kind of system...if you noticed on the 700mb relative humidity maps, moisture really expands toward the Carolinas around time of landfall.

 

Anybody else notice how the rain pivots back toward the Appalachians on Monday...signs of a possible cutoff forming near the Apps?

Ive been thinking the same. It would surprised me if it doesn't. The models can only pick up on so much but there has been a broad  lp center with a trough axis stretching into northern fl already. Also dont think the models have pick up on the strength of karen. But a cut off low from this would not be impossible.

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jburns

jburns

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Ive been thinking the same. It would surprised me if it doesn't. The models can only pick up on so much but there has been a broad  lp center with a trough axis stretching into northern fl already. Also dont think the models have pick up on the strength of karen. But a cut off low from this would not be impossible.

 

As far as flood potential goes, better now than back at the end of August.

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Jaydog

Jaydog

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With the current scenario, and left of track set up, there will no doubt be some very efficient rain makers likely across the western and central Carolinas. My feeling right now, is a fading east of the storm once to the latitude of the Carolinas, likely something similar to, or just west of Andrea's track back in June.

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1300m

1300m

Posted
Posted

Trash storm. Carl Parker says Euro model has been correct so far with what the storm currently looks like.

State of emergencies and evacuations for a naked swirl approaching the Gulf Coast.

Jburns I knew that. It was still hilarious though.

 

The Euro didn't even have a closed circulation 48 hours ago. 

 

Anyways, it appears the 00z and 06z GFS operational runs have become an eastern outlier (thus far), as most of the ensemble member tracks are roughly through ATL up to central or western NC. I think the 00z HWRF is probably a good compromise at the time being, but of course the delicate interaction with this upper level trough is going to play such a pivotal role in where the center of circulation tracks and how much rain gets enhanced by the large scale lift ahead of the trough that it will probably change right up until it's happening on the models.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Cantore just said the euro nailed this, and is becoming the superior model by far! Said shutdown is not letting the weather service updat and improve our u. s . models, while Europeans are hard at work making improvements to better their model everyday!

See 1300m. Even mackerel_sky agrees that the European model has gotten this.
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jburns

jburns

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The shutdown has nothing to do with the current GFS output. And so far, what exactly has the Euro nailed? The GFS had a TS before the Euro, if I recall. What is Cantore talking about?

You haven't heard? The entire GFS suite would have had a complete overhaul in the last three days if it weren't for the shutdown.

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1300m

1300m

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Ha! That's what it seemed like Cantore was saying. Our one window to finally fix things and we blew it!

 

I dare say since spring that the GFS has outperformed the Euro more times than the other way. Very interesting to see if that will continue this winter...

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
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There's no way IMO that the Euro has outperformed the GFS with Karen to this point considering that the Euro didn't even have a TD til the last minute! It really didn't have a Karen at all. So, how could it have done better with Karen without it having a Karen? Also, the gfs really didn't have strengtening resume until it started moving NE tomorrow. Finally, the gfs had it making it to about as far west as it is now, near 90 west. If there is almost no more westerly component of motion from here on out, that, too, would be much closer to the gfs. The Euro was further west.

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DopplerWx

DopplerWx

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There's no way IMO that the Euro has outperformed the GFS with Karen to this point considering that the Euro didn't even have a TD til the last minute! It really didn't have a Karen at all. So, how could it have done better with Karen without it having a Karen? Also, the gfs really didn't have strengtening resume until it started moving NE tomorrow. Finally, the gfs had it making it to about as far west as it is now, near 90 west. If there is almost no more westerly component of motion from here on out, that, too, would be much closer to the gfs. The Euro was further west.

100% agree.

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Tornado Girl

Tornado Girl

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There's no way IMO that the Euro has outperformed the GFS with Karen to this point considering that the Euro didn't even have a TD til the last minute! It really didn't have a Karen at all. So, how could it have done better with Karen without it having a Karen? Also, the gfs really didn't have strengtening resume until it started moving NE tomorrow. Finally, the gfs had it making it to about as far west as it is now, near 90 west. If there is almost no more westerly component of motion from here on out, that, too, would be much closer to the gfs. The Euro was further west.

The GFS has backed off a bit on the overall intensity; it's got a better understanding of the vertical shear, which could increase to near 40mph tomorrow..in spite of that we could see a bit of strengthening a bit before landfall ... But I agree with you on the GFS has done a better job...The Euro was very surprised with Karen.. The 12z GFS has it making landfall in the Panhandle,,,, Which could be right.... but my money is a landfall near Mobile Bay. 

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

There's no way IMO that the Euro has outperformed the GFS with Karen to this point considering that the Euro didn't even have a TD til the last minute! It really didn't have a Karen at all. So, how could it have done better with Karen without it having a Karen? Also, the gfs really didn't have strengtening resume until it started moving NE tomorrow. Finally, the gfs had it making it to about as far west as it is now, near 90 west. If there is almost no more westerly component of motion from here on out, that, too, would be much closer to the gfs. The Euro was further west.

:clap:

 

Exactly! The Gfs has proven itself with this storm. Esp.. with the strengthening aspect. Even though this western track would have been considered an outlier. The ensemble members did show it further west at times......

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

:clap:

Exactly! The Gfs has proven itself with this storm. Esp.. with the strengthening aspect. Even though this western track would have been considered an outlier. The ensemble members did show it further west at times......

Lol come on. The GFS never showed a 65mph storm 999mb at that time frame yesterday. It showed that for today and tomorrow and look what we have currently.

The GFS showed a vertically stacked storm and the Eurodidn't. That should have been the key there that this thing wouldn't do much. Yes the Euro was late with tropical cyclone genesis.

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FLweather

FLweather

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Posted

Lol come on. The GFS never showed a 65mph storm 999mb at that time frame yesterday. It showed that for today and tomorrow and look what we have currently.

The GFS showed a vertically stacked storm and the Eurodidn't. That should have been the key there that this thing wouldn't do much. Yes the Euro was late with tropical cyclone genesis.

 

Niether did the euro. If it was up to the euro and nam this would have ended up in south texas as a weak tropical wave.  Really thats the only reason why karen was picked up was bc the gfs. A vertically stacked storm.

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