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2013 Southeast Tropical Storm Thread

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Hey, don't get me wrong.  I'm rooting for it.  But, around here we have a name for people that consistently bet on long shots.  Homeless.

I know better than to bet on it lol. However, it is so quiet out there that this hint of a threat from a pathetic tropical genesis model is probably about the only thing approaching interesting and it at least may make for a little bit of discussion in this otherwise dead thread.

Most importantly, I'm mentioning it due to the unusually favorable MJO near the climo heart of the season. Otherwise, I'd probably ignore it.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Hot off of the press from another BB from the very well-respected meteorologist and often downplayer of tropical threats, "wxman 57":

 

" I see a major change coming after Sept. 9th in the GFS & Canadian ensembles as well as Japanese model (my coworker tells me). Check out the North Atlantic panel and the '500mb Geopotential Height Anomaly' maps. Note that after the 8th, the ridge builds across the Atlantic but is located a lot farther north than normal. This is a pattern that opens up the tropics for development and also indicates less recurving storms:"

 

 In the bigger picture, I still think that the current neutral negative ENSO is more favorable than unfavorable for a
major US threat sometime this season and I'm still betting on a major US H hit at some point (2/3 chance in my mind). There's plenty of time for that. That's in addition to the current strong MJO phase 1.

 

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Larry, I can only tell you this...should you get this storm, in your time frame, hard on the heels of your late winter coup..predicted in Dec., then come this winter you will be expected to produce great things.  Great, great things!  No pressure, buddy, just something to mull over while you eat ice cream, and ply your abacus :)

  It's dry as a bone down here.  I need a tropical do dah, and how.  While all the rest of you fretted over floods, I barely got good and wet. T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Larry, I can only tell you this...should you get this storm, in your time frame, hard on the heels of your late winter coup..predicted in Jan., then come this winter you will be expected to produce great things.  Great, great things!  No pressure, buddy, just something to mull over while you eat ice cream, and ply your abacus :)

  It's dry as a bone down here.  I need a tropical do dah, and how.  While all the rest of you fretted over floods, I barely got good and wet. T

 

 Speaking of ice cream, do you realize that the mayor of Savannah is still waiting for the moles to make it to Savannah?!? Have you seen them? What the heck have they been doing all summer? Partying or something? They take their summer vacations seriously! The mayor says they're welcome at any time and I'm ready to host them as well as be their chauffeur and provide for their sweet tooth. The motel is on alert for them to arrive at any point. The ice cream shop remains vigilant.

 

 Regarding the tropical season overall, it is always good to have the often pessimistic 57 on your side and I don't mean Heinz. What's the famous saying? When 57 speaks, people listen.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I don't know where they are!  Two came back, and had been in Vegas.  But they've left again.  Another wandered up the other day with a See Rock City haircut, so I guess he needed getting home money, but then he took off with a couple of groupies who showed up the next day.  Fame does funny things!  So....no Moles, and no rain, and winter coming on fast.

  I've been reading about those spiders that ride the jet streams...but, it wouldn't be the same..and anyway, I don't know if they are weather spiders...I think they may be statistic gatherers instead...might do you a lot more good than me.  Especially with winter coming on and you having to make some big frozen precip calls, and everything :) T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Well, pouch 25 has picked up convection and has just been determined to have a weak closed sfc circ. with light west winds to the south per a research mission. Therefore, it has just been designated as invest 97L. Although the CMC continues to develop into a cane (at least 6th run in row...these last 2 don't hit east coast but aren't too far from it; the 12Z of 8/31 gets it to 971 mb status), it still doesn't have other support. However, I did notice on the brand new Euro a subtle increase in convection and lower pressure around a weak sfc low that moves into the LA's. I'm still not betting on the CMC, but these latest developments are at least still suggesting not to completely dismiss the CMC just yet. Just to remind folks, the reason I won't ignore the CMC like I usually do when it is on its own is because of a rare quite strong MJO phase 1 developing as we speak. If Euro projections end up right, this will turn out to be among early 9/1981 and late 8/1979 as the strongest MJO phase 1's since 1975 near the climo season peak. 1979 and 1981 produced six hurricanes, including three majors, between the two of them just while the MJO was strong in phases 1-2.

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jburns

jburns

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It's only gonna be a player for Mexico ! After no appreciable rainfall in the next ten days and longer, we will be wanting some tropical moisture to come into the southeast!

 Mexico?  No way.  It will most likely be a fish storm.

 

EDIT: I believe you are looking at the wrong area.  The TD is just south of Puerto Rico.  It's not the disturbed area in the southern gulf.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

You have a link or how do you figure that? Its not that well organized yet. Yes there may be a small lp in a broad lp trough. But its got alot working against mainly the upper level low and winds to the north of it. Now if would come together with the deep storms to the NE given the flow to the north and south creating possibly more favored conditions. But as of right now the storm complex is robbing this thing of getting stronger fast and interaction of land masses aswell.

It's going to be named Gabrielle at 11, but check out the massive and impressive disturbance to its NE.

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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
Posted

You have a link or how do you figure that? Its not that well organized yet. Yes there may be a small lp in a broad lp trough. But its got alot working against mainly the upper level low and winds to the north of it. Now if would come together with the deep storms to the NE given the flow to the north and south creating possibly more favored conditions. But as of right now the storm complex is robbing this thing of getting stronger fast and interaction of land masses aswell.

 

It's been relabeled. 

AL, 07, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 663W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,

 

NHC website is slowly updating with Gabrielle Advisory

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

You have a link or how do you figure that? Its not that well organized yet. Yes there may be a small lp in a broad lp trough. But its got alot working against mainly the upper level low and winds to the north of it. Now if would come together with the deep storms to the NE given the flow to the north and south creating possibly more favored conditions. But as of right now the storm complex is robbing this thing of getting stronger fast and interaction of land masses aswell.

Here you go.

AL, 07, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 663W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,

Edit: Thanks toxictwister, I didn't see your post.

But yeah, I don't like that area to the NE. I wonder what will happen when they merge.

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FLweather

FLweather

Posted
Posted

Here you go.

AL, 07, 2013090500, , BEST, 0, 167N, 663W, 35, 1008, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 120, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GABRIELLE, M,

Edit: Thanks toxictwister, I didn't see your post.

But yeah, I don't like that area to the NE. I wonder what will happen when they merge.

There really no way of telling for sure. Could interact some cause it to strengthen which could cause it to curve north quicker being a direct hit on PR. No way of telling 100%. But I do know that is a pretty impressive band of storms on radar south of PR.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

The last four runs of the gfs show home brew hybrid development not far off of the SE US coast 9/19-20 below rather strong surface high pressure and upper ridging, which sometimes creates a very slow moving if not trapping scenario looking back in history. Diana of 1984 was somewhat similar. If this scenario holds up for several more days of model runs, things could get pretty interesting for the east coast and perhaps the Gulf. Strong and persistent NE US surface high pressure tends to promote convergence underneath, which can easily promote the formation of organized surface low pressure. This tends to occur sometimes, especially between mid Sep. and mid Oct. once stronger surface highs become more prevalent and move into and tend to sit in or just offshore the NE US with the change of seasons and before SST's have had a chance to cool much.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 Yes, we just left the very favorable strong MJO phase 1-2, which is hard to beat per climo though it underproduced this time. The MJO is now within the circle and is projected to remain in there for much of the next two weeks. However, things are not currently unfavorable MJOwise. Here's why. I did an analysis of the number of TC geneses since 1995 in September for each MJO phase and came up with these overall % chances for genesis per day:

 

Phase 1: 24% (Ivan of 2004)

Phase 2: 17% (Ike of 2008 and Jeanne of 2004)

Phase 3: 6%

Phase 4: 16%

Phase 5: 8% (Humberto of 2007)

Phase 6: 6%

Phase 7: 14%

Phase 8: 15%

In Circle: 21% (Rita of 2005, Isabel of 2003, Lili of 2002, Floyd of 1999, Georges of 1998, Opal of 1995)

 

ALL        16%

 

 

- Being within the circle in Sep. since 1995 has actually been more conducive than average with 21% per day (vs. 16% per day overall) unlike in August when it was only 10%/lower than Aug. average.

- Surprisingly, phase 3 had only a 6% daily genesis rate, tied for the bottom in Sep.

- The MJO having gone into the circle is actually much better climowise in SEP since 1995 than if it had gone into phases 3-8 (see above stats).

- All but one of the CONUS H hits and all of the major CONUS H hits from Sep. geneses since 1995 were from geneses during phase 1, phase 2 , or within the circle.

- Within circle US H hitting SEP TC formation dates since 1995: Rita 9/17, Isabel 9/6, Lili 9/21, Floyd 9/7, Georges 9/15, Opal 9/27

- Clarification: There have been many more days within the circle vs. any one of phases 1-8. So, that's a big reason there were a whopping six geneses that lead to later H hits on the US. However, even after taking the # of days into account (i.e. "normalization"), within the circle was more conducive than average (21%/day vs. overall avg. of only 16%/day). Also, the # of days for phases 3-8, combined, were about the same as the # of days within the circle. Yet, there were six US H hits from within the circle vs. only one hit from phases 3-8, combined!

 

 Aside: The Euro ensemble mean did far better than the GEFS mean for this recent strong phase 1-2 peak though it was a little too strong. Therefore, I'd pay more attention to the Euro in the near future for the MJO.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

 The 12Z Euro is doing something similar to the 0Z Euro with a very slow moving tropical or hybrid cyclone forming near 70W E of the Bahamas on 9/19 with some of the moisture/energy seeming to originate with the entity that is now east of the Leewards. This forms underneath surface and upper ridging that then prevails over the far western Atlantic. Formation of surface lows below ridges like this is somewhat favored due to low level convergence below the high over warm water sometimes leading to homegrown surface lows in that area, especially from mid-Sep. to mid-Oct, when SST's are stlil quite warm and upper winds often still rather light. 1984's Diana comes to my mind to some extent.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Folks,

The 12Z Euro is doing something similar to the 0Z Euro with a very slow moving tropical or hybrid cyclone forming near 70W E of the Bahamas on 9/19 with some of the moisture/energy seeming to originate with the entity that is now east of the Leewards. This forms underneath surface and upper ridging that then prevails over the far western Atlantic. Formation of surface lows below ridges like this is somewhat favored due to low level convergence below the high over warm water sometimes leading to homegrown surface lows in that area, especially from mid-Sep. to mid-Oct, when SST's are stlil quite warm and upper winds often still rather light. 1984's Diana comes to my mind to some extent.

Bumping the above because of more very interesting runs today, including the 18z GFS, which has a very slow moving (due to being trapped by a high to the north) significant cyclone just offshore the SE 9/24-28.

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

Dr. Ice Cream...can you say, or have you said what happened the winter following the latest forming Atlantic hurricane?  Sorry if I missed it, but if the season gets going way late, and stays around way late, where does winter end up?  Seems like I remember a way, way late in the season, like past the season, forming Atlantic hurricane with a pretty good winter after.  But I may be suffering from Missing Mole Malaise and the attendant new forming drought.  T

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Dr. Ice Cream...can you say, or have you said what happened the winter following the latest forming Atlantic hurricane?  Sorry if I missed it, but if the season gets going way late, and stays around way late, where does winter end up?  Seems like I remember a way, way late in the season, like past the season, forming Atlantic hurricane with a pretty good winter after.  But I may be suffering from Missing Mole Malaise and the attendant new forming drought.  T

Dr. Mole,

I haven't actually analyzed anything like that. Maybe one day though :)

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

Well, as I'm eating my delicious nighttime ice cream, I see that the 0Z Goofy has dropped the late month cycone threat. Let's see how later runs as well as today's Euros look.

 

---------------------------------------------

 Edit: Early month GFS runs were suggesting NE US ridging locking in and dominating 9/15-22. Since then, there has been plenty of delay and now they're hedging on NE ridging taking over even during late month. As a result, the 0z-12Z GFS runs of today dropped the late Sep. SE US cyclone threat. Let's see if the modeled threat returns.

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GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

 Wow, fwiw the 18Z 9/17 gfs absolutely bombards much of the southern halves of MS/AL/GA and E SC with very heavy rain and a major flooding threat for some 9/21-23 due to Invest 95. It gives part of SC AL 8-10" within 24 hours! The lowest SLP is 999 mb.

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