Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Ok, I'll get it done and start the thread....but only because of all the SE luv. Gotta be honest about the Christmas threat though. I'm not feeling the big one yet. Here's what we have from today (some random favorites): 0Z GFS 174 hr Rain 0Z Canadian Eh 168 hr Rain 0Z Euro 168 hr Rain 6Z GFS 150 hr Rain 12Z GFS 156 hr Rain 12Z Canadian Eh 156 hr Rain 12Z Euro 144 hr Rain And now, everybody's favorite: (drum roll please...drum roll) 18Z GFS 156 hr Yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Let me also add that I am in no way endorsing a Christmas snowstorm...yet. But we needed a coffin, I mean a thread, so I simply solved a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Hopefully 00z will bring it because of the mojo with this thread! We'll know in about an hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 00z will be a big run...if it comes in similar to 18z (or even further south) the board will be rockin for sure. If it shows a lakes cutter again, well the edge of the cliff will be a busy place. To be honest I'm more excited about the 1/1-1/2 storm, but we'll see. I'll definitely be making a drive up to norther sc or nc if the 18z solution comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Jinx! I think we will get what your name says now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Let me also add that I am in no way endorsing a Christmas snowstorm...yet. But we needed a coffin, I mean a thread, so I simply solved a problem. Thank you ever so kindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Jinx! I think we will get what your name says now. I think that's the most likely outcome as well. I'm loving me some January though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted December 21, 2012 Author Share Posted December 21, 2012 Thank you ever so kindly. Sure thing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well, CR, you only have to produce during the length of the thread, and if there is no threat for a week, the thread won't grow...so you're good to go until you feel it And remember, you get to keep your stapler, no matter the outcome. Meanwhile, I reached exactly the 3/4's inch goofy predicted for me today, which is twice in a row it got the day and total right a ways out. And the third one back busted on the low end for me...I gloried in more.. That to me says more about the future than all the fantasy cold and snow in the world. Actual model prediction working out for rain. That's a big deal. . T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well, CR, you only have to produce during the length of the thread, and if there is no threat for a week, the thread won't grow...so you're good to go until you feel it And remember, you get to keep your stapler, no matter the outcome. Meanwhile, I reached exactly the 3/4's inch goofy predicted for me today, which is twice in a row it got the day and total right a ways out. And the third one back busted on the low end for me...I gloried in more.. That to me says more about the future than all the fantasy cold and snow in the world. Actual model prediction working out for rain. That's a big deal. . T Although it is OT, we've been getting the correct (sometimes even more) rain around here based on the GFS forecast 5 days out+. Last Sunday, the model lost it a time or two, but brought it right back accurately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I think that's the most likely outcome as well. I'm loving me some January though. Unfortunately I agree on the 12/27 storm and fortunately I agree on the January. The beginning on January must be looking good because of Widre's quote in the other thread. I have to say, today's 12z Euro is the first run I've seen in weeks that looks favorable. We may yet have a winter. Widre, are you feeling ok? I'm just giving you a hard time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Although it is OT, we've been getting the correct (sometimes even more) rain around here based on the GFS forecast 5 days out+. Last Sunday, the model lost it a time or two, but brought it right back accurately. CAE recorded .88 from the last system and the GFS said approx 1.3-1.5 for days EDIT: .88 from the 12/13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Jinx! I think we will get what your name says now. You obviously weren't around for his Christmas thread (well a bunch of them) from 2010. Of EVERYONE who has ever started a thread, his were the equivalent of babe ruth calling his homerun shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 CAE recorded .88 from the last system and the GFS said approx 1.3-1.5 for days Here in Lexington, close to Lake Murray I was able to get 1.2 which I will definitely take and thought was fairly close to CAE"s (to the east generally get more)'s prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Saw this posted from Wes... I'm not that surprised the GFS as the off hours for some reason have always had a more suppressed look than the 00Z or 12Z. What's bad is the GFS likes suppressed storms and the euro likes wrapping storms up. That makes knowing which way to go really tough. I still like the low wrapping up quicker than the GFS but it all depends on Bobs block south of hudson bay and the trough that develops in response to it. That feature is what keeps the low south. There are huge differences at 500h between the two camps. I still think an inland track is more likely but I'm certainly not good enough to know for sure which camp is right. At least I'll probalby get an article out of it tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Tracks on the 12z JMA, 12Z & 18Z NOGAPS are pretty much following each other showing a lift of the low at far Eastern TN. The JMA's next frames aren't availible on my end, although the NOGAPS seems to be cold chasing moisture etc for most of SC/NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looking at the energy at 500 this is probably going to be another different solution from the GFS...let's see where she goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chapelhillwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You obviously weren't around for his Christmas thread (well a bunch of them) from 2010. Of EVERYONE who has ever started a thread, his were the equivalent of babe ruth calling his homerun shot. The subheading was "Guaranteed" and it lasted all the way through five threads. He certainly has the mojo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Trough a lot sharper and looks to be closing off hr 111...This should be west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWC Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 And YES Folks , You are drawing a crowd!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I feel some mojo for the New Years Storm. Watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 West of the Euro....pretty amazing run to run consistency by the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beanskip Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 850 low closes off way too early -- even earlier than 12z run. This is one is a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Def. west this go around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 CAD is stronger on this run...1024 high parked in NY @132 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks to hold a negative tilt around 114/120 and this should send it west of the apps...........will there be a handoff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Eastern TN gets in the game @135 with probably some light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Sounds like you are describing the 0z GEM...west and 1024 High in NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 West of the apps at 132...comical how different these runs are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 West of the Euro....pretty amazing run to run consistency by the GFS. you serious Clark? sarcasm? 18z took a Miller A out of the gulf and off the carolinas................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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