burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Everything seems to have shifted slightly northwest of the 00z run last night on this run of the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Way west! 00z had that secondary low going through KY...12z has it going through IN on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It's gonna be a classic miller screw! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Know it's not the SE but central PA looks to be the jackpot region with the last couple of runs of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Bummer for sure, I was hoping this would atleast get to Mobile and than start heading NE to the spine of the App's and than transfer to the VA/NC border and give TN/NC mtns/MA/NE a good storm. But that is 3 fairly consistent GFS runs and now we are getting within 4.5 days. Hopefully Euro/CMC/UK are further SE. I would imagine UK/CMC are not going to repeat what they did last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Bummer for sure, I was hoping this would atleast get to Mobile and than start heading NE to the spine of the App's and than transfer to the VA/NC border and give TN/NC mtns/MA/NE a good storm. But that is 3 fairly consistent GFS runs and now we are getting within 4.5 days. Hopefully Euro/CMC/UK are further SE. I would imagine UK/CMC are not going to repeat what they did last night. Wouldn't be the the first time they've sniffed out a trend before the Euro and GFS did...but it's looking more and more likely that this one may be fading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Interesting SW dropping in from the west at 138 The CMC and a few GFS members had a threat just before New Years. This is a different threat than the Jan 2/3 threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 For the GFS, this is not the storm for the SE....it could be setting the stage for something later, though. I still want to see the other models before I write off this as a winter threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Looks like the gfs is weaker and a little farther north with that Christmas wave over the northern mid Atlantic. We would like to see that one stronger and farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 For the GFS, this is not the storm for the SE....it could be setting the stage for something later, though. I still want to see the other models before I write off this as a winter threat. I remember a few years ago when we had two camps like this,only a few days out. Euro and GFS had a miller a, while the CMC and ukie had the storm cutting thru Tenn. In the end it was an earlier phase and it cut. Now we can only hope the cmc and ukie will win out again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We are talking about features interacting with each other 4-5 days away. Timing is critical and even a 6-12 hour placement mistake will have large effects. Continue to look at all modeling and lean on the ensembles for the next day or so.... JMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I remember a few years ago when we had two camps like this,only a few days out. Euro and GFS had a miller a, while the CMC and ukie had the storm cutting thru Tenn. In the end it was an earlier phase and it cut. Now we can only hope the cmc and ukie will win out again. There are many times when multiple shortwaves are in the stream and the models have a DIFFICULT time determining which one will develop/strengthen and which one won't. This makes the forecast extremely difficult. We shall see who wins out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GreensboroWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 We are talking about features interacting with each other 4-5 days away. Timing is critical and even a 6-12 hour placement mistake will have large effects. Continue to look at all modeling and lean on the ensembles for the next day or so.... JMO. Excellent post!!! I totally agree, especially if each model has a drastically different result. We have to wait for consistency before a more confident forecast can be made....when this occurs is anyone's guess right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You guys should be up in the High Country today instead of behind computer screens. Don't let the winter we have pass you by! Everyone needs to get outside an enjoy winter outdoor sports on a day like today. Today's snow may likely be the best out of the December 21, December 26 and January 2 events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 You guys should be up in the High Country today instead of behind computer screens. Don't let the winter we have pass you by! Today's snow may likely be the best out of the December 21, December 26 and January 2 events. no, surely not, today snow is nothing in asheville. want a storm, hopefully Jan 2/3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 UK...I would imagine would be good for the NC/GA/TN mountains and central/east TN, I only have access to 24 hour maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well CMC held serve...interesting UK/CMC are fairly close and give a great chance for w-NC, N-GA, and TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well CMC held serve...interesting UK/CMC are fairly close and give a great chance for w-NC, N-GA, and TN. That's interesting...I was almost certain they would be west. I was expecting an apps runner to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 It appears the trough has not made its way onto the coast yet. if i remember correctly, the gfs usually has sampling issues over the pacific. that coupled with the euro and its faults as mentioned in posts before mine, creates a wide spread of solutions. i dont think we can discount any solutions at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Add the NOGAPs to the CMC/UK idea, I am not going to post the pic but here is the link for anyone that wants to take a gander. FWIW, NOGAPs is known to be very progressive, so it's not shocking it's SE... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NOGAPS_12z/nogapsloop.html#picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Add the NOGAPs to the CMC/UK idea, I am not going to post the pic but here is the link for anyone that wants to take a gander. FWIW, NOGAPs is known to be very progressive, so it's not shocking it's SE... http://www.meteo.psu...op.html#picture Yeah, nothing surprises me w/ the NOGAPs but the CMC/UK was surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well CMC held serve...interesting UK/CMC are fairly close and give a great chance for w-NC, N-GA, and TN. It's on ewall now. Good run for north GA and western NC/SC. I think the biggest difference in the CMC is it has a much stronger wave for Christmas eve and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaculaWeather Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I would like to point out the CMC was an outlier with our last winter event back in February. It was a much colder solution with a more southern shortwave track for that event and it turned out to be correct...just a thought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 I've been looking at the 12z gfs rain projections, as is my want...to go against the grain in the "all snow" thread Based on recent successes with goofy for rain predictions in MBy, the 1.4 it wants to give me over Xmas seems reasonable, as as it is under 7 days, and I'm inclined to expect it. With maybe some wrap around flurries. As for New Years, if it gets a bit colder sooner, then the 3 inches it is projecting would most certainly make me have to try to live through the second 3 inch plus zrain rain horror of my life, rather than the first over 2 feet of snow I've experienced Just simple odds, and climo. So, I would expect far lower qpf to verify, or 3 plus of cold rain, at this point. The gfs has been great lately with rain, so I can sure see rain coming around New Years, this far out. But either far less, if frozen, or just cold rain. If if is cold enough, and it does drop 3+ inches, I can't see that being snow this close to the gulf, but rather me reliving the zrain I never want to relive again, or a nice soaking cold rain. Not that I don't deserve 3 feet of snow, I just don't know if I'm that lucky, even with the moles. I've seen plenty of 2 or 3 inch gom low rain storms in my life, but the only time I saw over 3 inches of qpf in frozen form, was zrain. I guess there is always the first time, and I would enjoy 3 inches qpf in ip/sn, but I'm not holding my breath. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Well if that first little low that spins off and gives us some range before the main event is any indication @84 it's good bit east of the 00z last night. It had the low around north west GA and NE AL...this run has it around NW SC....then pushes it out to see on the next frame. The frame before it was south of where 00z had it. Let's see where this run goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 Euro is looking colder @102 and everything appears shifted south. Low is cranking at the TX LA border near the gulf as opposed to in central LA on 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 EURO might be an epic run....its DEF further south. Good confluence over the NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 meh...lol Starting to cut over central MS a little bit at hour 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrierCreekWx Posted December 21, 2012 Share Posted December 21, 2012 meh...lol Starting to cut over central MS a little bit at hour 108 Is it still phasing with the piece of the ULL that is breaking off from the main ULL over the northeast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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