NYCSuburbs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 For what it's worth, CMC is way north of the GFS and uglier for us - low tracks over NYC, there's still some snow in far northern NJ before the changeover; even southern New England has P-type issues. Orange county stays snow for much longer. It's the northern outlier right now, but perhaps there is at least some additional trend for a slightly more amplified storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Check the SREF's before you go running your mouth. It's going mostly rain for almost the entire area. This is going to be plenty cold. Temps aren't an issue for the Christmas storm; they're an issue for the system on the 27th only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Check the SREF's before you go running your mouth. It's going mostly rain for almost the entire area. I don't think it will be mostly rain. GFS is nice,Ukie is nice,ggem is the only model which is really far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Which model shows mostly rain? GFS is nice,Ukie is nice. The GGEM is probably a blast of snow as well initially before changing over. This is quite a battle right now of America vs. the world on the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Until the SREF's jump on board, I just can't be confident in forecasting legitimate snow at this time. The SREF's show approx. 60-70% chance of precip in the area, but 0% chance of snow. They are almost never inaccurate. I'm hoping that they come around. The GGEM is probably a blast of snow as well initially before changing over. This is quite a battle right now of America vs. the world on the first event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Until the SREF's jump on board, I just can't be confident in forecasting legitimate snow at this time. The SREF's show approx. 60-70% chance of precip in the area, but 0% chance of snow. They are almost never inaccurate. I'm hoping that they come around. They aren't in range yet so I wouldn't worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Until the SREF's jump on board, I just can't be confident in forecasting legitimate snow at this time. The SREF's show approx. 60-70% chance of precip in the area, but 0% chance of snow. They are almost never inaccurate. I'm hoping that they come around. Never inaccurate at 87 hrs? what?? Not sure where you are getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/medr/nav_conus_pmsl.php?fday=3&fcolor=wbg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Remarkably difficult to even get a 2 inch snowfall the last couple of winters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would expect the SREF's to at least show 10-20% chance of snow for the area at this point given their relatively high 6 HR POPs of 60% at 84 HR. It's disconcerting. SREF's were very disconcerting for Chicago at 60 HR for the most recent storm...no one wanted to believe them. Never inaccurate at 87 hrs? what?? Not sure where you are getting at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mulen Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 DA'leo loaded for bear 24th on very conservative met but everyone shares the wealth my nlooks good next week my nephew from Fla is visiting never saw a flake .The trend is our friend coustesy of D.T see ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Euro is colder than the GFS .Surface is near freezing with cold 850's. Looks like a 1-3 inch event on this run for the area. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would expect the SREF's to at least show 10-20% chance of snow for the area at this point given their relatively high 6 HR POPs of 60% at 84 HR. It's disconcerting. SREF's were very disconcerting for Chicago at 60 HR for the most recent storm...no one wanted to believe them. Euro is deadly at this range and shows a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's really not a good idea to use the 87 hour SREFs over the Euro. The Euro has about a half inch of liquid for NYC and appears cold enough. It's actually wetter in CT than it is in NJ, though. So half an inch of liquid for NYC, a bit more NE, and a bit less SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 It's really not a good idea to use the 87 hour SREFs over the Euro. The Euro has about a half inch of liquid for NYC and appears cold enough. It's actually wetter in CT than it is in NJ, though. So half an inch of liquid for NYC, a bit more NE, and a bit less SW. The GEM even is colder than you'd think at 850-950 given its setup, the boundary layer in the GEM's case though would probably warm since the low basically goes into Albany so we'd have S-SE winds. Right now at least it thankfully has no support. The good thing that could of course come from a very amplified track and rain from the first wave would probably be a much more suppressed and snowier setup for the bigger system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would expect the SREF's to at least show 10-20% chance of snow for the area at this point given their relatively high 6 HR POPs of 60% at 84 HR. It's disconcerting. SREF's were very disconcerting for Chicago at 60 HR for the most recent storm...no one wanted to believe them. The graphics don't look right to me. They're showing a greater prob of rain than snow in northern Pa and southern NY and a very low prob of 1" of snow. I wonder if there is a glitch in the software. If not, considering the other midrange guidance, thats a poor probabalistic representation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 I would expect the SREF's to at least show 10-20% chance of snow for the area at this point given their relatively high 6 HR POPs of 60% at 84 HR. It's disconcerting. SREF's were very disconcerting for Chicago at 60 HR for the most recent storm...no one wanted to believe them. The SREF mean looks good and a handful of the individual members show widespread accumulating snow. It's got to be a glitch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 The graphics don't look right to me. They're showing a greater prob of rain than snow in northern Pa and southern NY and a very low prob of 1" of snow. I wonder if there is a glitch in the software. If not, considering the other midrange guidance, thats a poor probabalistic representation. If this type of setup...this time of year...produces rain in Binghamton...or even Scranton....then the atmospheric and climatic pattern that once applied in this area has undergone a substantial overhaul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Many members show a ggem type track on the srefs. Completely skews everything. There is no chance the ggem's crazy NW track is verifying. Especially now that the euro went southeast again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Check the SREF's before you go running your mouth. It's going mostly rain for almost the entire area. What is your deal? "running your mouth"? Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Many members show a ggem type track on the srefs. Completely skews everything. There is no chance the ggem's crazy NW track is verifying. Especially now that the euro went southeast again. Nam just joined that party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like nam is 1-2" then dry slot/drizzle, and we miss the wraparound to our north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z GFS did also. Everything is going towards the SREF. Not really shocking. Dusting to 1 inch most areas in the metro with temps hovering just above freezing. Wake up to cloudy skies and wet ground. Nam just joined that party. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z GFS did also. Everything is going towards the SREF. Not really shocking. Dusting to 1 inch most areas in the metro with temps hovering just above freezing. Wake up to cloudy skies and wet ground. your basing this on NAM and the SREF past 48 hrs?..umm these are short range models..go with the global models past 48.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is pulling the typical SW flow event trend and going north of where you initially think, its doing it a bit earlier than usual though, its more common for a northj trend to initiate inside 48-60 hours which makes me wonder if this could correct south later or even go more north, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Using the nam and srefs at this range is laughable. Euro gives us 2-4. Gfs went warm at 06z, it will be telling to see what it does in 30 min Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 6z GFS did also. Everything is going towards the SREF. Not really shocking. Dusting to 1 inch most areas in the metro with temps hovering just above freezing. Wake up to cloudy skies and wet ground. Nah. Nam goin towards the global models. Sref alone. All due respect. Disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Jb going with 1-3, possible spots to 5 in NYC/NJ with Xmas storm, than 4-8 with the following storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 This is pulling the typical SW flow event trend and going north of where you initially think, its doing it a bit earlier than usual though, its more common for a northj trend to initiate inside 48-60 hours which makes me wonder if this could correct south later or even go more north, Looks like good snow event from about Danbury north...climatologically...it makes sense...given SNE's total lack of snow last 2 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 22, 2012 Share Posted December 22, 2012 Looks like good snow event from about Danbury north...climatologically...it makes sense...given SNE's total lack of snow last 2 years. Only about 1 in every 5 SWFEs is all snow for NYC/LI and I honestly cannot even recall the last one that was all snow...2 others are usually snow to sleet to rain and the other 2 are all rain. This one is going to fall somewhere in those last 4 options most likely, if we had a stronger high in place or a colder air mass I'd feel better about getting more snow, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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