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Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

earthlight

By earthlight,
in New York City Metro

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SACRUS

SACRUS

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I have been following 94/95 as a bit of an analog with similar Dec/Jan (so far). That year featured one bout of cold and one storm (a one storm winter) in early February. Looking at the back side of the latest guidance there does seem to be sufficient cold and enough amplification in the feb 2 - feb 6 period to warrant a potential storm. I think that may be the period to watch....

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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This is not as bad as what the guys in the SNE thread experienced on the coast Monday nite bet Portland and Portsmouth , where WSW were up and a ft of snow was expected , the Norlun formed offshore , and those guys wound up with 2 inches and that bust was from 6 hrs away .

It snows where it wants too .

Happens .

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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12z GFS has nothing but cutters. Hopefully we can get those to trend further south, like what was progged with this Friday's upcoming event. Only problems are these storms might get too suppressed or they might stay as cutters. Pattern too progressive.

Did you go past hr 180? That's not a cutter.

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Brian5671

Brian5671

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Just FYI, not our region, but do y'all realize that Chicago has a record 334 days without recording at least an inch of snow?  That's incredible.  CHICAGO.

amazing. incredible drought in the plains (not just snow) Wonder how that will affect next spring/summer here..big heat dome pushing east?
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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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Precip is fairly light. Clippers are nice but nothing that's going to cause a moderate snowfall. Things could very well change and I'm sure they will. 

You're joking right? Big low pressure system gets going in the deep south and scrapes us. Hr 324 has a 1008 mb miller A over SC. precip up to New England. 850 freezing line along I-95. Hr 336 sub 1000mb low SE of the benchmark with moderate precip over the whole region and 850 freezing line slicing through Long Island. Would be a significant storm verbatim. Matches up well with the early February threat that has been forecasted with the MJO propagating through phase 8.

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TWCCraig

TWCCraig

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You're joking right? Big low pressure system gets going in the deep south and scrapes us. Hr 324 has a 1008 mb miller A over SC. precip up to New England. 850 freezing line along I-95. Hr 336 sub 1000mb low SE of the benchmark with moderate precip over the whole region and 850 freezing line slicing through Long Island. Would be a significant storm verbatim. Matches up well with the early February threat that has been forecasted with the MJO propagating through phase 8.

 

Have you seen the surface temps? LI soars into the mid 40's. Mid levels are cold yes, but there's a surge of warm air at the surface. Only till about half way or 2/3 of the way through the storm do surface temps drop below freezing. Maybe for you it stays all below freezing. Sharp temperature drop after the storm though, down into the single digits. I agree storm matches up with the MJO going into phase 8. Doesn't mean every storm is going to be good as gold.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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Have you seen the surface temps? LI soars into the mid 40's. Mid levels are cold yes, but there's a surge of warm air at the surface. Only till about half way or 2/3 of the way through the storm do surface temps drop below freezing. Maybe for you it stays all below freezing. Sharp temperature drop after the storm though, down into the single digits. I agree storm matches up with the MJO going into phase 8. Doesn't mean every storm is going to be good as gold.

Are you guys arguing over precip type HR 324 on the GFS ? My eyes r glazing over .....

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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Have you seen the surface temps? LI soars into the mid 40's. Mid levels are cold yes, but there's a surge of warm air at the surface. Only till about half way or 2/3 of the way through the storm do surface temps drop below freezing. Maybe for you it stays all below freezing. Sharp temperature drop after the storm though, down into the single digits. I agree storm matches up with the MJO going into phase 8. Doesn't mean every storm is going to be good as gold.

Not that I care about the snow hole known as Long Island either way but it's a 336 hr forecast. I couldn't care less about anything other than that it shows something. You had said the GFS shows nothing but cutters and I was just pointing out that that is not true at all.

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green tube

green tube

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Just FYI, not our region, but do y'all realize that Chicago has a record 334 days without recording at least an inch of snow?  That's incredible.  CHICAGO.

 

that's impressive.

 

btw.... unrelated, but when it comes to big snowstorms, something like 2 of chicago's top 10 snowstorms would even make it to NYC's top 10 list.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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amazing. incredible drought in the plains (not just snow) Wonder how that will affect next spring/summer here..big heat dome pushing east?

Hearing that it will cause the price of beef to double as farmers aren't breeding as many cows. They simply can not afford to keep large as large of an inventory as usual.

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PB GFI

PB GFI

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No, I just felt the need to point out that the 12z GFS doesn't show as he put it "Nothing but cutters".

The warm up may get muted next week , mayb 3 days , before the next trough swings through . ( If we get some snow cover Fri ) .

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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Ok let me rephrase. "Nothing but cutters except for one chance that's still 300+ hrs out and will change"

 

Fair enough?

In the end none of this will play out as adverstised but the long range models have shown a consistent threat in the long range for awhile now. It's been a long time since a model has even shown a miller A at any forecast hour.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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The warm up may get muted next week , mayb 3 days , before the next trough swings through . ( If we get some snow cover Fri ) .

Everyone was complaining about the torch and now that it's cold everyone is complaining about the lack of snow. Cold doesn't mean snow. You want to be on the edge of the coldest air. Otherwise the pattern is too suppressed. Cold air = dry air.

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

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I also did mention that these cutters could further trend south like what happened with Friday's upcoming event. Hopefully that is what will happen.

The nice thing about the 324 hr threat is that the GFS shows a long wave trough digging way deep into the south and then turning the corner. We may not have any decent blocking in place, but those are finer details that will be ironed out. The GFS has at least 2 more threats after that as well. Can't really complain even if it's only fantasy land.

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