Stumbling into a wintry pattern, weenies confused; still shaken from last winter

[NEG NAO]

This is a possible analog storm for the 1/25- 1/26 event - but with snow totals reaching 50 - 75 % on average of the totals for that storm as of right now ............

http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2005/22-Jan-05-SurfaceMaps.html

With an NAO which is just about neutral won't even reach 50 - 75% as of this mornings NAO reading and model guidance - storm can't wrap up along the coast - pattern to progressive lucky if we can get a couple of inches and that because of the high snow ratio's.

[MJO812]

If you believe the GFS in the long range, it has a warmup for next week and then right back to a cold and stormy pattern.

[MJO812]

With an NAO which is just about neutral won't even reach 50 - 75% as of this mornings NAO reading and model guidance - storm can't wrap up along the coast - pattern to progressive lucky if we can get a couple of inches and that because of the high snow ratio's.

 

We have seen storms with a positive NAO. Not common though.

[Kaner587]

If you believe the GFS in the long range, it has a warmup for next week and then right back to a cold and stormy pattern.

I think based on the MJO and our recent propagating SSW february will end up being our most wintry and cold (relative to normal) month. A rocking february would save winter for many

[jm1220]

It is all just a matter of how much those two systems phase.  1-3 is on the table, so is 6-12.  We shall see.  British and JMA have our 6-12, all the others have like 1-3.

Britain and Japan, vs. the U.S., Canada and continental Europe. Not sure I like that matchup for the former. Any word on what side the Aussies and Brazilians are taking up arms? How about the Koreans?

[pazzo83]

Britain and Japan, vs. the U.S., Canada and continental Europe. Not sure I like that matchup for the former. Any word on what side the Aussies and Brazilians are taking up arms? How about the Koreans?

I hear the Somalian model has 36-48".

[West Milford Highlander]

I hear the Somalian model has 36-48".

 

Is that 75:1 ratios? 

[pazzo83]

Is that 75:1 ratios? 

Yea, after it took the British and Japanese models hostage.

[MikeS]

Yea, after it took the British and Japanese models hostage.

Damn Pirates!

[NEG NAO]

We have seen storms with a positive NAO. Not common though.

well you are not going to see a SECS this time around - now the question is - Is HPC going to back off on their 0.50 qpf for the region Friday in their afternoon update or stay the course.?..........

[famartin]

I hear the Somalian model has 36-48".

 

The Azerbaijanii 4Z run had  72.638" for Central Park and 95.627" for Montauk. 

 

 

[jm1220]

I hear the Somalian model has 36-48".

That's quite a letdown from the Argentinian 12z which showed an 898mb and 50"/hr. After 102hr so much falls that the Northeast collapses into the sea and you just see land west of I-81. I tried posting the map but my work computer blocked it under the "Inappropriate/Adult-Rated Content" blocker.

[IsentropicLift]

That's quite a letdown from the Argentinian 12z which showed an 898mb and 50"/hr. After 102hr so much falls that the Northeast collapses into the sea and you just see land west of I-81. I tried posting the map but my work computer blocked it under the "Inappropriate/Adult-Rated Content" blocker.

[pazzo83]

That's quite a letdown from the Argentinian 12z which showed an 898mb and 50"/hr. After 102hr so much falls that the Northeast collapses into the sea and you just see land west of I-81. I tried posting the map but my work computer blocked it under the "Inappropriate/Adult-Rated Content" blocker.

It drank too much Malbec again, damn Argentines.

[MJO812]

well you are not going to see a SECS this time around - now the question is - Is HPC going to back off on their 0.50 qpf for the region Friday in their afternoon update or stay the course.?..........

 

 

Says who? Who is to say that the 0z runs will not bring it back?

[MJO812]

MJO plots are looking good . A lot of them showing phase 8-1

[NEG NAO]

Says who? Who is to say that the 0z runs will not bring it back?

HPC just reduced the qpf for the storm - earlier the 0.50 area was over the metro now just barely the 0.25 - light to moderate event like 1 -3 or 2 -5 with above avg ratio NOT an S.E.C.S

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif

[MJO812]

HPC just reduced the qpf for the storm - earlier the 0.50 area was over the metro now just barely the 0.25 - light to moderate event like 1 -3 or 2 -5 with above avg ratio NOT an S.E.C.S

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i.gif

 

 

I will wait until 12z tomorrow to see where we are at to declare this storm dead.

[NEG NAO]

I will wait until 12z tomorrow to see where we are at to declare this storm dead.

You do that and be sure to keep us updated

[MJO812]

You do that and be sure to keep us updated

 

I will not be the only one doing that.

[famartin]

I will wait until 12z tomorrow to see where we are at to declare this storm dead.

 

Its not dead.  I'm still giving people a significant range of possibilities to anyone who asks.  The one thing I'm fairly certain of, still, is that it will snow.

[rygar]

The storm thread is a disaster.  I am clueless, but I know enough not to post in the storm thread.  It's unreadable with so many just chiming in on the gut feelings and nothing more.

[Cfa]

121°F > 21°F

[NEG NAO]

The storm thread is a disaster.  I am clueless, but I know enough not to post in the storm thread.  It's unreadable with so many just chiming in on the gut feelings and nothing more.

I agree just click the report button on the bottom of the page - moderators have been doing a good job of moving the one word and 2 word posts and other nonsense into this thread - they also have been deleting the personal attacks some people around here like to continue disagreements from days or weeks ago  with their mean spirited comments that include name calling.........it helps to report all of this...

[Edge Weather]

KU on the 18z GFS at 264 hrs.

[NEG NAO]

KU on the 18z GFS at 264 hrs.

nice too look at BUT.....................

[JonClaw]

1/25-1/26 Disc thread makes me want to hurt kittens.

[NEG NAO]

0Z GFS shows basically nothing - lucky if we get a few snow showers - and next week it warms up - so 11/12ish ........after that more promises - promises -promises.

[jm1220]

0Z GFS shows basically nothing - lucky if we get a few snow showers - and next week it warms up - so 11/12ish ........after that more promises - promises -promises.

Good, let it warm up then. I was never a fan of bone dry and bitter cold like this.

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Someone bring up the "I don't want to live on this planet anymore" meme. It'll just be HILARIOUS.