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Upstate NY/North Country + adjacent ON, QC, VT: Heading into December

Alpha5

By Alpha5,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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wolfie09

wolfie09

Posted
Posted

Euro brings in some light snow for xmas morning, then usher's in some freezing cold temps..

TUE 06Z 25-DEC -7.0 -6.9 1015	 85	 100 0.04	 539	 528
TUE 12Z 25-DEC -5.8 -7.8 1017	 93	 57 0.08	 538	 525
TUE 18Z 25-DEC -5.8 -8.6 1022	 77	 33 0.01	 543	 526
WED 00Z 26-DEC -12.8 -8.1 1027	 88	 15 0.00	 548	 527
WED 06Z 26-DEC -15.4 -5.5 1029	 89	 13 0.00	 551	 529
WED 12Z 26-DEC -17.6 -3.9 1029	 79	 27 0.00	 555	 533

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Yep WSW for me. 8-13" i fully expect the lower end of that range where I am but thats plenty fine with me.

URGENT – WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY

333 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

NYZ012-019>021-085-200445-

/O.NEW.KBUF.WS.A.0002.121221T1400Z-121222T2100Z/

WYOMING-CHAUTAUQUA-CATTARAUGUS-ALLEGANY-SOUTHERN ERIE-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF…WARSAW…JAMESTOWN…OLEAN…

WELLSVILLE…ORCHARD PARK…SPRINGVILLE

333 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012

…WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH

SATURDAY AFTERNOON…

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BUFFALO HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM

WATCH…WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY

AFTERNOON.

* LOCATIONS…WESTERN SOUTHERN TIER…SOUTHERN ERIE AND WYOMING

COUNTIES.

* TIMING…FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

* HAZARDS…HEAVY SNOW ALONG WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS…1 TO 2 INCHES FRIDAY…4 TO 6 INCHES FRIDAY

NIGHT…3 TO 5 INCHES SATURDAY…LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 8 TO

13 INCHES. GREATEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED ACROSS HIGHER TERRAIN.

* WINDS…WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH LATE FRIDAY

NIGHT AND SATURDAY.

* IMPACTS…TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DETERIORATE STARTING

ON FRIDAY. THE WORST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT

THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY. EXPECT SNOW COVERED ROADS AND VERY

POOR VISIBILITY.

* FORECASTER CONFIDENCE…THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE

EXACT TRACK OF THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A SMALL CHANGE IN THE

EXPECTED TRACK MAY ALTER EXPECTED SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE

POSSIBLE. IF YOU ARE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA…REMAIN ALERT TO

RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF

WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS

CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT http://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/BUFFALO.

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Organizing Low

Organizing Low

Posted
Posted

Interesting storm coming up Eastern Ontario. Wish I had time to analyze it, but I can see why Environment Canada is hesitating on specifics.

very very cursory look.....Depends on timing of transfer from primary to secondary low, ottawa valley effect on keeping N component winds, and if/when ice pellets/frzra mix in. If everything goes wrong, maybe 1-4 inches. if everything goes right, I could see 6-12 inches. Some localized spots in the Ottawa Valley (where exactly is hard to say right now but I would wager N of the city) and in the ski areas in Quebec could see 10-16.

Heaviest precip Friday morning through afternoon.

I'll check more carefully tomorrow if I get a chance.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

What about snow totals for CNY area? Local mets are saying north winds over the weekend so not expecting any major snow totals?

I don't know, the NAM, GFS and Euro all have winds staying around NW for Saturday into Sunday. It looks like a pretty good setup for upslope/lake enhancement for most of CNY, with moist cyclonic flow and relatively cold air. I think most areas will see at least 3" and totals possibly approaching a foot in the higher elevations.

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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

00z NAM is a big hit for virtually all of Western NY due to the combination of mid-level deformation and lake enhancement - nearly everyone would pick up 6"+ if that were to pan out, with 12-24" totals almost certain along the Chautauqua Ridge possibly the Boston Hills as well. Heaviest snow in metro BUF occurs from ~1AM-10AM Saturday. Lots of blowing and drifting too. Geez.

My flight from BOS to BUF is supposed to land at 8:40 Saturday morning :yikes:

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WestWind

WestWind

Posted
Posted

My thinking for WNY

Hope you are right about these snowfall totals. One negative I see is the prediction for strong winds throughout the period. I'm certainly no expert on the specifics, but I have noticed in the past that its rare to get big lake effect snowfall amount with strong winds. At least in the southtowns where I live.

However, even small amounts of a couple inches would be a big change from the season so far. I saw on the NWS Buffalo site today that both Buffalo and Rochester tied the record for the fewest days so far into the season with an inch of snow cover (1 in Buffalo and 0 in Rochester). That record was set just last year. Plus Rochester will either tie or break the record for the latest first inch of snow cover depending on if an inch of snow is recorded by Friday morning or not.

I'm prepared to go a bit south to film snow on Saturday if need be.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

00z NAM is a big hit for virtually all of Western NY due to the combination of mid-level deformation and lake enhancement - nearly everyone would pick up 6"+ if that were to pan out, with 12-24" totals almost certain along the Chautauqua Ridge possibly the Boston Hills as well. Heaviest snow in metro BUF occurs from ~1AM-10AM Saturday. Lots of blowing and drifting too. Geez.

My flight from BOS to BUF is supposed to land at 8:40 Saturday morning :yikes:

Wow thanks for the update, might be quite the storm!

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

Hope you are right about these snowfall totals. One negative I see is the prediction for strong winds throughout the period. I'm certainly no expert on the specifics, but I have noticed in the past that its rare to get big lake effect snowfall amount with strong winds. At least in the southtowns where I live.

However, even small amounts of a couple inches would be a big change from the season so far. I saw on the NWS Buffalo site today that both Buffalo and Rochester tied the record for the fewest days so far into the season with an inch of snow cover (1 in Buffalo and 0 in Rochester). That record was set just last year. Plus Rochester will either tie or break the record for the latest first inch of snow cover depending on if an inch of snow is recorded by Friday morning or not.

I'm prepared to go a bit south to film snow on Saturday if need be.

hey good to see another poster from WNY particuarly OP. where in OP are you located?
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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

00z NAM is a big hit for virtually all of Western NY due to the combination of mid-level deformation and lake enhancement - nearly everyone would pick up 6"+ if that were to pan out, with 12-24" totals almost certain along the Chautauqua Ridge possibly the Boston Hills as well. Heaviest snow in metro BUF occurs from ~1AM-10AM Saturday. Lots of blowing and drifting too. Geez.

My flight from BOS to BUF is supposed to land at 8:40 Saturday morning :yikes:

hope your right Justin, this could be an "over achiever" for us in WNY with NWS expecting 3-7" for all of the Niagara Frontier which would warrant a WWA. Thinking a WSW may be needed for all of WNY if 6"+ is looking likely with high winds in a busy travel period.
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WNash

WNash

Posted
Posted

hope your right Justin, this could be an "over achiever" for us in WNY with NWS expecting 3-7" for all of the Niagara Frontier which would warrant a WWA. Thinking a WSW may be needed for all of WNY if 6"+ is looking likely with high winds in a busy travel period.

How much of the variation between 3 and 7 is expected to be lake enhanced? I would expect up here in Parkside to be on the low end if lake enhanced. If some of this is a Friday temp issue, we also may be low-- I seem to run 1-2F high than the airport much if the time.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

How much of the variation between 3 and 7 is expected to be lake enhanced? I would expect up here in Parkside to be on the low end if lake enhanced. If some of this is a Friday temp issue, we also may be low-- I seem to run 1-2F high than the airport much if the time.

Both the NAM and GFS latest runs have been consistent in spitting out .8 to .9 qpf as all snow. However it seems the NWS is calling for quite a bit less then yesterday across the Niagara Frontier this morning in there discussion. Now calling for 1-3 inches for them, quite the conservative call.

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BuffaloWeather

BuffaloWeather

Posted
Posted

Ok, time that I resurface here. :) Just got back from three weeks of serious winter cold and snow in central Europe... Got to get rid of this brown ground here.

Serious LES situation off Ontario behind this storm I think....maybe a few even get to me for some white ground.

Welcome back! Yeah looks pretty decent for lake enhanced event in your neck of the woods.

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heavy_wx

heavy_wx

Posted
Posted

Ok, time that I resurface here. :) Just got back from three weeks of serious winter cold and snow in central Europe... Got to get rid of this brown ground here.

Serious LES situation off Ontario behind this storm I think....maybe a few even get to me for some white ground.

I'm just hoping to see a few flakes here in the valley.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

How much of the variation between 3 and 7 is expected to be lake enhanced? I would expect up here in Parkside to be on the low end if lake enhanced. If some of this is a Friday temp issue, we also may be low-- I seem to run 1-2F high than the airport much if the time.

Ya being so close to the Lake you may struggle. Not having much elevation also hurts you but I still feel confident you should see 4" or so.
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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

The NAM almost has me thinking there will be two snowfall jackpots in Western NY: one in the obvious location (Boston Hills, Chautauqua Ridge) where I am becoming increasingly confident in a 12"+ snowfall. I really think the Chautauqua Ridge is going to be hammered. But the NAM has been indicating a second QPF maximum NORTH of Buffalo due to an unusual upstream connection to Lake Huron. It almost reminds me of the 1/1-1/4/10 event where a prolonged connection to Lake Huron delivered up to 31" in IAG, albeit this will be a much shorter-duration event. Still, the idea of a second jackpot in the BUF north towns is something I've been kicking around for a couple days now.

I do think the NWS is leaning way conservative with this event. Mid-level deformation looks very good given the position of the H7/H5 low centers at 12z Saturday, and there is an abundance of moisture from the surface to the top of the boundary layer. I think people get to wrapped up in advisories/warnings/etc. but I wouldn't be surprised if BUF extends the winter storm watch to include the Niagara Frontier later today. Although snowfall amounts won't necessarily be monumental for Western NY standards, the combination of snow and wind will make for very difficult traveling conditions at the height of the event overnight Friday through Saturday morning. This looks like a legit storm to me.

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lakeeffectkid383

lakeeffectkid383

Posted
Posted

The NAM almost has me thinking there will be two snowfall jackpots in Western NY: one in the obvious location (Boston Hills, Chautauqua Ridge) where I am becoming increasingly confident in a 12"+ snowfall. I really think the Chautauqua Ridge is going to be hammered. But the NAM has been indicating a second QPF maximum NORTH of Buffalo due to an unusual upstream connection to Lake Huron. It almost reminds me of the 1/1-1/4/10 event where a prolonged connection to Lake Huron delivered up to 31" in IAG, albeit this will be a much shorter-duration event. Still, the idea of a second jackpot in the BUF north towns is something I've been kicking around for a couple days now.

I do think the NWS is leaning way conservative with this event. Mid-level deformation looks very good given the position of the H7/H5 low centers at 12z Saturday, and there is an abundance of moisture from the surface to the top of the boundary layer. I think people get to wrapped up in advisories/warnings/etc. but I wouldn't be surprised if BUF extends the winter storm watch to include the Niagara Frontier later today. Although snowfall amounts won't necessarily be monumental for Western NY standards, the combination of snow and wind will make for very difficult traveling conditions at the height of the event overnight Friday through Saturday morning. This looks like a legit storm to me.

how you thinking well do here in OP?
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kulaginman

kulaginman

Posted
Posted

Devin, even using the more conservative GFS QPF it looks like we should manage at least 0.50" liquid equivalent as snow from this event. I haven't taken a close look at bufkit to see what kind of snow growth we're looking at (I'm at work right now)...but h85 temps look to be around -10C for most of the event, so I would imagine we'll have some pretty good ratios. I'm starting to think a 6-10" snowfall is likely for the majority of Western NY at this point.

EDIT: Just looked at bufkit and it looks like the entire layer between h85 and h7 will be within the -8C to -13C temperature range starting around 04z tomorrow evening. That's nearly ideal for good snow growth. I'm having some trouble viewing cross sections to see if that's where the best lift will be, but those are some pretty ideal temperatures for optimal dendritic growth.

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cleetussnow

cleetussnow

Posted
Posted

Devin, even using the more conservative GFS QPF it looks like we should manage at least 0.50" liquid equivalent as snow from this event. I haven't taken a close look at bufkit to see what kind of snow growth we're looking at (I'm at work right now)...but h85 temps look to be around -10C for most of the event, so I would imagine we'll have some pretty good ratios. I'm starting to think a 6-10" snowfall is likely for the majority of Western NY at this point.

How about finger lakes south? Will the synotic set up get anything decent here? I don't think the GL bands can accumulate in that area, but rather just Snow showers form LES, so counting on synoptic to make it happen.

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