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Atlantic Tropical Action 2012 - Part II


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Info on a little known project....

http://www.uasvision.com/2011/10/03/noaas-gale-to-fly-into-the-eye-of-a-hurricane/

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in partnership with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, has developed GALE, its own unmanned aircraft. Measuring 3 feet long and weighing 8 pounds, the $30,000 unmanned aircraft is made of hard composites and powered by an electronic motor. It cruises at about 55 mph and can stay aloft for about 1.5 hours before falling into the ocean, never to be used again.

It will be launched from the belly of a hurricane hunter turboprop, initially shot out of a tube as a cylinder. Then it will sprout wings and fly into the core of a hurricane, where it will feed wind speeds and other atmospheric data into computer models that project a storm’s track and strength.

Test flight from a few days ago -

UAS Gale test flight

On Tuesday (8/14) NOAA42 flew the Gale UAS test flight mission. The NOAA42 successfully launched the Gale UAS during flight. The Gale UAS met 7 out of the 8 requirements on the checklist to deem the flight a successful mission. The Gale UAS was unrecoverable but the team is evaluating the mission results for future improvements.

More detailed info on the project - http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/HFP2012/3_GALE_UAS.pdf

gale.png

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Info on a little known project....

http://www.uasvision...of-a-hurricane/

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in partnership with Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University, has developed GALE, its own unmanned aircraft. Measuring 3 feet long and weighing 8 pounds, the $30,000 unmanned aircraft is made of hard composites and powered by an electronic motor. It cruises at about 55 mph and can stay aloft for about 1.5 hours before falling into the ocean, never to be used again.

It will be launched from the belly of a hurricane hunter turboprop, initially shot out of a tube as a cylinder. Then it will sprout wings and fly into the core of a hurricane, where it will feed wind speeds and other atmospheric data into computer models that project a storm’s track and strength.

Test flight from a few days ago -

UAS Gale test flight

On Tuesday (8/14) NOAA42 flew the Gale UAS test flight mission. The NOAA42 successfully launched the Gale UAS during flight. The Gale UAS met 7 out of the 8 requirements on the checklist to deem the flight a successful mission. The Gale UAS was unrecoverable but the team is evaluating the mission results for future improvements.

More detailed info on the project - http://www.aoml.noaa.../3_GALE_UAS.pdf

gale.png

$30K? sheish.. $3k is expensive for something that is basically garbage after 1.5 hours.

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$30K? sheish.. $3k is expensive for something that is basically garbage after 1.5 hours.

This is the nature of the US government, there are never any budget restrictions.

Glad to see you guys are both experts on the appropriations committee. Take it to AP if you want to criticize how federal money is spent.

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It's an incredibly advanced dropsonde. Trying to recover it would probably cost more than they sonde itself.

I'm guessing you didn't even read the more detailed link I provided based on your earlier question that was answered by Adam.

yes I did. I was trying to understand the physics but thanks. Perhaps the better question is do they expect this data will yield new physical processes?

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With the favorable MJO state currently, the GFS is really going bonkers with cyclogenesis over the next 120 hours. We have 5 low-level vort maxes on the map in 72 hours (one in the Gulf of Mexico, One in the Caribbean, Three in the Atlantic). Obviously the probability of all of these systems developing is low, but I think a short term burst of 2-3 tropical cyclones is not out of the question before the 25th of August.

2w5un4i.gif

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With the favorable MJO state currently, the GFS is really going bonkers with cyclogenesis over the next 120 hours. We have 5 low-level vort maxes on the map in 72 hours (one in the Gulf of Mexico, One in the Caribbean, Three in the Atlantic). Obviously the probability of all of these systems developing is low, but I think a short term burst of 2-3 tropical cyclones is not out of the question before the 25th of August.

One of the key things I'm seeing is the intensification and expansion of the subtropical high throughout the GFS run (probably due to the MJO intensifying upward motion in the tropics). This creates a favorable environment for TC intensification due to low wind shear as well as the intensification of confluent flow along the ITCZ, making it more prone to rolling up into disturbances. This is about right on schedule and may indicate that things will be active for 2-3 weeks, since the strengthened subtropical high and favorable conditions that go along with it aren't going to go away for awhile.... though things will get less favorable when the MJO flips again.

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Info on a little known project....

http://www.uasvision...of-a-hurricane/

gale.png

This looks way more promising than the aerosonde, we completely lack observations in crucial parts of the inner core due to safety risks, like the boundary layer of the eyewall. 1.5 hours of flying could return a tremendous amount of data from a region we've barely sampled, well worth $30k imo, and it'll probably get cheaper if it goes into bulk production.

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BEGIN

NHC_ATCF

invest_al952012.invest

FSTDA

R

U

040

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0000

201208191734

NONE

NOTIFY=ATRP

END

INVEST, AL, L, , , , , 95, 2012, DB, O, 2012081912, 9999999999, , , , , , METWATCH, , AL952012

AL, 95, 2012081912, , BEST, 0, 217N, 981W, 20, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,

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It's peak season and we have a hurricane and three invests in the basin-- and yet the map is strangely unexciting.

94L has potential, but it's not a slam dunk.

I'm actually not surprised. Josh, remember when a system left Africa and was already nearing hurricane strength?

Take Isaac and Joyce from Hurricane Season 2000.

Hurricane Isaac....note how far east and near the Cape Verdes.

post-442-0-37545200-1345456254_thumb.jpg

Hurricane Joyce, the same thing.

post-442-0-35121000-1345456266_thumb.jpg

No dry stable clouds racing the system west at 25 mph. No SAL. Ahh way back when...

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Hurricane Joyce, the same thing.

post-442-0-35121000-1345456266_thumb.jpg

No dry stable clouds racing the system west at 25 mph. No SAL. Ahh way back when...

Actually, IIRC, Joyce was killed by a SAL surge. In fact, in that satellite image you posted, you can see the stable stratocumulus and the African dust associated with the SAL to the northeast of Joyce. Bad example :P

But yeah, the low-level flow has been anomalously strong in the MDR this year. Kinda reminds me of 2001. Storm after storm struggling to get a persistent LLC (Chantal, Jerry, and Iris specifically). Both Chantal and Iris were pegged to enter the Gulf as strengthening hurricanes -- instead they slammed into Belize.

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Actually, IIRC, Joyce was killed by a SAL surge. In fact, in that satellite image you posted, you can see the stable stratocumulus and the African dust associated with the SAL to the northeast of Joyce. Bad example :P

But yeah, the low-level flow has been anomalously strong in the MDR this year. Kinda reminds me of 2001. Storm after storm struggling to get a persistent LLC (Chantal, Jerry, and Iris specifically). Both Chantal and Iris were pegged to enter the Gulf as strengthening hurricanes -- instead they slammed into Belize.

Yeah Joyce was a bad example. I remember watching it go from 85 mph to an exposed LLC in like...five hours.

If you are interested, here's some vintage John Hope TWC on Isaac, Joyce and the beginnings of Keith that I recorded in the fall of 2000.

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