hm8 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 And so now we see the first model rumblings of the first major cold snap of the season, which will inevitably be pushed back later and later which each successive model run until say mid-late October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Loving the low clouds and soaking rain, I'm sure the plants do too. Sfc temp of 62 °F with 850 temp of 12 °C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Awesome cold shot...definite banana musher... Hopefully we can get some snow flakes :) !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Temp has shot up to 82 here. Prospects not looking good for staying in the 60s tomorrow as some models had been suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Only a sprinkle here overnight. Nothing measurable as of 12:00. Was in Charlotte through early this afternoon. Little to no rain fell there. GRR Forecast was for 100% chance of rain. I know for fact most areas in that region did not get any rain today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Looks like SeMi might be in the jackpot for heavy rain as we progress forward. Yuck week in a awesome summer so far. 12z ECMWF turns the heat on early/mid next week or so it tries. Hear waves are done. Move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Hear waves are done. Move on. It is the first week in August might wanna dial back the no more heat talk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Heavy rains have been hard enough to cause localized street flooding around Waukegan. Only 63 now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 It is the first week in August might wanna dial back the no more heat talk. Technically 2nd week and models show no heat in southern Michigan through the end of week 3... Only a couple more weeks left to get though, I bet we see 2 more 90 degree days tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Technically 2nd week and models show no heat in southern Michigan through the end of week 3... Only a couple more weeks left to get though, I bet we see 2 more 90 degree days tops. Agree. I see a couple more isolated 90°+ days throughout the rest of the summer ridge is breaking down pattern is changing. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Radar has lite up like a Christmas tree around here...some areas getting some much needed rainfall...just missing me for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I think it is likely, though far from certain we might be reaching a turning point. Even if it is brief, things are definitely looking up atm for a break from any major heatwaves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 We will see. I think the middle-end of next week has a "heat" chance. Once the models fix the PNA bias, that will probably lead toward a 1-3 day period(depending on length) of warmth. Notice the pattern has changed to ups and downs since the last week in July up north. These drought busting rains will likely aid to keep the magnitude of the heat down, although the dewpoints will probably offset that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Yeah the notion that there won't be any more heat the rest of the summer because the 12z Euro/GFS doesn't show heat for the next 10 days is a bit much. Some people might wanna dial back the wishcasting that summer is over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 No way I'd bet that the heat is done. The worst of it? Probably, but given the repeating tendency this summer and in past summers like this, just not very wise imo. Here is where we are so far this month: No real reason to think this general layout won't continue, with the better chances for less warmth (relative to average) the farther north you go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 No way I'd bet that the heat is done. The worst of it? Probably, but given the repeating tendency this summer and in past summers like this, just not very wise imo. Here is where we are so far this month: No real reason to think this general layout won't continue, with the better chances for less warmth (relative to average) the farther north you go. Yeah, I am not sitting here advocating it will be in the 100s any time soon but 90s still look to be in the cards, hell one decent trough into the West and that ridge will spill Eastward. Then back into the 90s we would go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Yeah the notion that there won't be any more heat the rest of the summer because the 12z Euro/GFS doesn't show heat for the next 10 days is a bit much. Some people might wanna dial back the wishcasting that summer is over... I don't think anybody said Summer was over I think a lot of people think the mild/heat pattern is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Wouldn't know there's a storm system in the area today as we've been in a mix of sun and clouds all day with no precip. Made it to 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 I don't think anybody said Summer was over I think a lot of people think the mild/heat pattern is over. Under what reasoning though, we hit 90 just the other day over achieving like we have done all summer. Just because 2 models don't show heat for the next 10 days doesn't mean it is over, especially considering how hot it is to the SW of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 FWIW, looks like DVN's all in on a cooler than average August... OVERALL... IT APPEARS WE ARE UNDERGOING A REMARKABLE PATTERN CHANGE TO MEAN CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THAT VERY WELL COULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR AUGUST FOR MUCH OF THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AND BAKED MIDWEST. 06Z GFS 2M TEMP ANOMALY (AVG) THROUGH 384 HRS (06Z 8/25) SHOWS ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS BELOW AVERAGE WITH IA/IL/MO/KS/OK/AR SHOWN TO AVERAGE 4C TO 6C BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Hear waves are done. Move on. thats like saying no more cold in early feb. Sent from my iPhone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 FWIW, looks like DVN's all in on a cooler than average August... OVERALL... IT APPEARS WE ARE UNDERGOING A REMARKABLE PATTERN CHANGE TO MEAN CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THAT VERY WELL COULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR AUGUST FOR MUCH OF THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AND BAKED MIDWEST. 06Z GFS 2M TEMP ANOMALY (AVG) THROUGH 384 HRS (06Z 8/25) SHOWS ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS BELOW AVERAGE WITH IA/IL/MO/KS/OK/AR SHOWN TO AVERAGE 4C TO 6C BELOW. MJO is moving into a favorable phase for heat in a couple days, I expect changes to come and for the models to play catch up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 FWIW, looks like DVN's all in on a cooler than average August... OVERALL... IT APPEARS WE ARE UNDERGOING A REMARKABLE PATTERN CHANGE TO MEAN CENTRAL CONUS TROUGH THAT VERY WELL COULD RESULT IN BELOW NORMAL TEMPS FOR AUGUST FOR MUCH OF THE DROUGHT STRICKEN AND BAKED MIDWEST. 06Z GFS 2M TEMP ANOMALY (AVG) THROUGH 384 HRS (06Z 8/25) SHOWS ENTIRE CENTRAL CONUS BELOW AVERAGE WITH IA/IL/MO/KS/OK/AR SHOWN TO AVERAGE 4C TO 6C BELOW. With all due respect to DVN, I'm not sure why they would be using GFS 2m temperature anomalies considering the history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 With all due respect to DVN, I'm not sure why they would be using GFS 2m temperature anomalies considering the history. 06z run at that too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Haha, just thought I'd throw that into the convo. I'm guessing we'll see a return to heat at some point. We were due for a period of cooler weather after so many weeks in a row of extreme heat. My gut feeling is late August we'll see it return and last into September. With the tropics heating up though it's going to be very tough to pin down pattern changes very far into the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 60s with rain all day. It's been a long time since we've seen a day like this. Tomorrow should add lots of wind to make it nice and chilly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Kind of interesting watching the DTX's radar you can see the showers moving both E and W at the same time. Going to be a rainy night tonight with that next batch of heavy rain moving in from the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Closing in on about 1.25 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Kind of interesting watching the DTX's radar you can see the showers moving both E and W at the same time. Going to be a rainy night tonight with that next batch of heavy rain moving in from the West. That is weird. I could see the heavier echoes moving SW around here on radar embedded within the general batch of rain moving NE. When they moved overhead, they were brief downpours that appeared convective. I thought maybe it was lake effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted August 9, 2012 Share Posted August 9, 2012 Under what reasoning though, we hit 90 just the other day over achieving like we have done all summer. Just because 2 models don't show heat for the next 10 days doesn't mean it is over, especially considering how hot it is to the SW of us. I understand temps have been over achieving. Maybe Im reading models wrong but in the last couple weeks it has been leaning towards break down in the ridge. Leaving the door open for colder air in several runs. A pattern we have not seen in months. I did say will still have some 90 days just not consecutively that has been doing the past several months. ( i.e heat wave). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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