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Summer update II: As of July 10, SNE region's 4 primary climo sites are all solidly above normal nearing mid July

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

Posted
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I would agree with Ray that shear and dry air entrainment are more of a detriment to tropical cyclones. Sure skin temps may be a bit warmer which may help a tiny bit, but the layer of warm SSTs would liely not be enough to prevent the upwelling and cooling ahead of the storm.

The amount of energy going into tropical cyclones going from 86-87F is much more than what you would get going from 70-71F.

yeah agree...

unless the thing is crawling along at like 10 knots...which is so rare...the SST issue becomes rather irrelevant once north of Hatteras considering the traditional recurve track and accounting for the NE bend the GS takes from there. .

you'd have to have an entirely different look to the mid-atlantic/SNE SST profile to have it be an issue. 1-4F here and there in the top meter or so isn't going to cut it.

the one caveat would be a storm doing something like edouard did in 96 and crawling due N up 70W...waters are warmer out there further N so i guess if the near shore waters were warmer...*maybe* that would help.

one thing i do know though...this water is making for higher dews. and it blows. LOL.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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People have to realize why TC are sensitive to shear. Updraft strength in TC are much weaker than the updraft speeds in our typical tstms. It's related to instability. TC environment generally is not unstable, so strong convergence usually drives the whole process. Throw in shear and you rip apart updrafts.

Yea, the latent heat from the sea needs to be converted to energy and evacuated in the upper levels....if sheer is inhibiting the abilty of the updrafts to transport it there, then we have weenies have a problem....we are left with newbies whacking it to red sst charts in vain.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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yeah agree...

unless the thing is crawling along at like 10 knots...which is so rare...the SST issue becomes rather irrelevant once north of Hatteras considering the traditional recurve track and accounting for the NE bend the GS takes from there. .

you'd have to have an entirely different look to the mid-atlantic/SNE SST profile to have it be an issue. 1-4F here and there in the top meter or so isn't going to cut it.

the one caveat would be a storm doing something like edouard did in 96 and crawling due N up 70W...waters are warmer out there further N so i guess if the near shore waters were warmer...*maybe* that would help.

one thing i do know though...this water is making for higher dews. and it blows. LOL.

Yeah something like that where even the inflow of the storm is over warmer waters, it may help a bit. being closer to a better source region. What a tease Edouard was. I remember getting excited over every weenie wobble NW.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Yea, the latent heat from the sea needs to be converted to energy and evacuated in the upper levels....if sheer is inhibiting the abilty of the updrafts to transport it there, then we have weenies have a problem....we are left with newbies whacking it to red sst charts in vein.

:lol:

this board is better when you post. LOL.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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Yea, the latent heat from the sea needs to be converted to energy and evacuated in the upper levels....if sheer is inhibiting the abilty of the updrafts to transport it there, then we have weenies have a problem....we are left with newbies whacking it to red sst charts in vein.

They always will.

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Tropopause_Fold

Tropopause_Fold

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Yeah something like that where even the inflow of the storm is over warmer waters, it may help a bit. being closer to a better source region. What a tease Edouard was. I remember getting excited over every weenie wobble NW.

yeah i don't even think in that case it would really matter much. 68F/72F/77F...meh.

that storm was actually pretty good out here. 'cane force gusts.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

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yeah i don't even think in that case it would really matter much. 68F/72F/77F...meh.

that storm was actually pretty good out here. 'cane force gusts.

The best action actually came on NW winds when it pulled away. We had gusts past 50 on the s-shore. You guys did well.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Not only are ssts often rendered irrelevant by the upper levels, but there is a misperception that the skin temp of the sea is the main energy source; its simply not.

I prefer to view OHC (oceanic heat content) charts because they illustrate what TRUELY dictates intensity when the upper levels are in order.

The actual surface is not that big of a deal, but HOW DEEPLY that warm water extends toward the sea floor IS.

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weathafella

weathafella

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Is it me or does the seabreeze this summer feel like it doesn't cool much at all. Reminds me of NJ southward. It may well be a function of the SSTA we're experiencing this summer in our neck of the woods. I was at Crane Beach on 6/24 and you SST seemed to be heading ino the mid 60s then...very early.

OT but the upcoming winter is still enigmatic to me and hasn't revealed its hand as did last year (before I fell for the tubby squirrels) and 2010-11 (which I was very confident on from early summer.

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Mr Torchey

Mr Torchey

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80/62

Just like that the lawns have burned out and those without sprinkler systems are basically dormant, sometimes its not always the heat, but sunday through yesterday the hot sun combined with ultra low dews really robbed the soil of moisture.

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