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Northeast Severe/Convective/Thunder thread II

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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free_man

free_man

Posted
Posted

With the increase in mid-level lapse rates we'll see some boosting of instability values, however, we'll be limited to how unstable we can become due to the low dewpoints. You can see how low dewpoints affect instability...while we have near 1500 J/KG of SBcape we're struggling to get to 1000 J/KG of MLcape and LI values are only around -2C or so across our area.

There's pockets of LIs -2 to as low as -4 across ENY on the spc mesoanalysis site. I think that is pretty much what was forecasted

overall yeah, it's not very exciting, but maybe we'll see a few severe storms.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

There's pockets of LIs -2 to as low as -4 across ENY on the spc mesoanalysis site. I think that is pretty much what was forecasted

overall yeah, it's not very exciting, but maybe we'll see a few severe storms.

Looks like dews are about 2F higher across those areas compared to here which is probably all the difference.

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

As HM and Scooter ans Tip have been telling you, today is a big wind day with few large hail reports

I never said there won't be any wind reports.

Anyways this graphic right here looks decent and instability in the -10C to -30C layer should increase, especially as those mid-level lapse rates steepen and 500mb temps cool...plus we will have an increase in 0-6km shear.

We'll also see what the storm mode really works out to be.

hail.gif?1339174990577

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

I never said there won't be any wind reports.

Anyways this graphic right here looks decent and instability in the -10C to -30C layer should increase, especially as those mid-level lapse rates steepen and 500mb temps cool...plus we will have an increase in 0-6km shear.

We'll also see what the storm mode really works out to be.

Wiz', the "primary" threat today is wind, with some concern for large hail - that's really the way to look at this day.

Kev', one thing to note: any organized updraft could produce big hail with 8,000 to 8,500 foot freezing levels.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted

Wiz', the "primary" threat today is wind, with some concern for large hail - that's really the way to look at this day.

Kev', one thing to note: any organized updraft could produce big hail with 8,000 to 8,500 foot freezing levels.

Yeah we'll see a few hail reports but this has the setup of a big wind damage day where the storms hit. Not sure why Wizzy thinks its a big hail day
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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted

Wiz', the "primary" threat today is wind, with some concern for large hail - that's really the way to look at this day.

Kev', one thing to note: any organized updraft could produce big hail with 8,000 to 8,500 foot freezing levels.

There should be some really awesome gusts with cores once they collapse...could see some microbursts today...I remember the one at BDL a year years back (the one where Ryan posted video from one of the cameras there)...we were at the airport, actually right under the building where the video was taken...that was awesome watching roll in.

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

117 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>020-NHZ001>010-013-082330-

NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-

SOUTHERN OXFORD-SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-

INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-

NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-

SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-

INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANDOVER...ROXBURY...UPTON...

WILSONS MILLS...COBURN GORE...RANGELEY...KINGFIELD...BINGHAM...

JACKMAN...RUMFORD...NORWAY...FRYEBURG...OXFORD...FARMINGTON...

WILTON...MADISON...SKOWHEGAN...PITTSFIELD...SANFORD...BERWICK...

NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...LEWISTON-AUBURN...

LIVERMORE FALLS...COLEBROOK...BERLIN...LANCASTER...LITTLETON...

NORTH CONWAY...LEBANON...HANOVER...PLYMOUTH...WOLFEBORO...

OSSIPEE...CLAREMONT...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN...CONCORD...

HOOKSETT...LACONIA...MEREDITH...ROCHESTER...DOVER...SALEM...

DERRY...EXETER

117 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE

EVENING...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ARE JUST BEGINNING TO DEVELOP

ACROSS NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE. CONDITIONS ARE

VERY FAVORABLE FOR THESE STORMS TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE

AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS THEY MOVE SOUTHEAST. ALL OF NEW

HAMPSHIRE AND WESTERN MAINE MAY SEE SOME OF THESE STORMS BECOME

SEVERE AND PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

PEOPLE ENGAGED IN OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO THE

SKY AND BE READY TO QUICKLY MOVE TO SHELTER IF A SEVERE

THUNDERSTORM WARNING IS ISSUED OR THE SKY BEGINS TO LOOK

THREATENING. BOATERS ON THE LAKES SHOULD TAKE APPROPRIATE

PRECAUTIONS AND BE PREPARED TO SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY IF

THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL MEDIA FOR THE LATER

UPDATES ON THIS SITUATION.

Wiz just for you.........lol

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dryslot

dryslot

Posted
Posted

WWUS81 KGYX 081742

SPSGYX

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME

142 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

MEZ007>009-NHZ001-002-081830-

CENTRAL SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-NORTHERN

OXFORD-SOUTHERN COOS-

142 PM EDT FRI JUN 8 2012

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT SOMERSET COUNTY...OXFORD

COUNTY...COOS COUNTY AND FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 230 PM EDT...

AT 142 PM EDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM

4 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PITTSTON FARM TO 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF FLAGSTAFF

LAKE TO LINCOLN PLANTATION TO 11 MILES WEST OF NORTHUMBERLAND...OR

ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 22 MILES NORTHEAST OF JACKMAN TO 14 MILES

NORTHEAST OF EUSTIS TO 18 MILES WEST OF RANGELEY TO 13 MILES

NORTHWEST OF LANCASTER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS CLUSTER OF

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND AROUND DIXVILLE NOTCH

STATE PARK...LINCOLN PLANTATION...WILSONS MILLS...TIM POND...PITTSTON

FARM...LONG POND...DAVIS...MILLSFIELD...EUSTIS AND STRATFORD THROUGH

230 PM EDT.

HAIL UP TO THREE QUARTER INCH IN DIAMETER...HEAVY DOWNPOURS...

EXCESSIVE CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS OF 35 TO 45 MPH

CAN BE EXPECTED.

BOATERS SHOULD SEEK SAFE HARBOR IMMEDIATELY UNTIL THREATENING WEATHER

PASSES.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS AND STORMS APPROACH YOUR LOCATION...MOVE INDOORS

OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE MORE THAN 5

MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.

LAT...LON 4587 6966 4586 6966 4586 6970 4576 6971

4574 6979 4569 6977 4565 6969 4558 6970

4554 6977 4540 6972 4526 6986 4486 7055

4443 7144 4449 7160 4456 7161 4459 7154

4472 7162 4496 7110 4540 7041 4594 6994

$$

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