BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Ouch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 998 mb contour developed already with the sfc low, per last mesoanalysis update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Can you link me directly to the page with that particular info - I know he has a bunch of severe weather parameter pages Swamed here - but want to view that set Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 http://www.wxcaster.com/experimental_products.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA WORKS INTO THE WARM SECTOR BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS THE LOW PULLS NORTH INTO ILLINOIS. VERY STRONG SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE REGION SHOULD ENABLE DEWPOINTS TO SURGE INTO THE 50S BY MID AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY APPROACH 60 DEGREES OVER FAR SOUTHERN INDIANA. MODELS FAVORING MLCAPES CLIMBING TO NEAR 500 J/KG NEAR I-70 INCREASING TO AROUND 1000 J/KG OVER SOUTHERN COUNTIES. DYNAMICS WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOK EXTREMELY IMPRESSIVE AS PRESENCE OF POLAR VORTEX OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS PHASES AND SERVES TO AMPLIFY THE TROUGHING ALOFT BY LATE DAY. MID AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE EXCELLENT OVER THE OHIO VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH A NEGATIVELY TILTED TROUGH ALOFT PRESSING THROUGH THE REGION AND MAYBE MORE IMPRESSIVELY...A DUAL UPPER JET STRUCTURE WITH WINDS TO NEAR 130KT. THE SPLITTING OF THE JETS RIGHT OVER THE REGION SHOULD SERVE TO FURTHER ENHANCE DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND VERTICAL VELOCITIES SUPPORTIVE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF INTENSE CONVECTION. AN 850MB JET INCREASING TO NEAR 60KTS ALSO ADDING ITS WEIGHT WITH STRONG BL SHEAR AND 0-1KM HELICITIES OF 100-200M2/S2 PRESENT. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS WITH RESPECT TO AMOUNT OF CLEARING THAT CAN TAKE PLACE WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR BY AFTERNOON AND HOW FAR NORTH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CAN GET...THE PRESENCE OF THE DYNAMICS/SHEAR/HELICITIES AND JET STRUCTURE ALOFT ALONE ARE SUPPORTIVE OF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT. From tonight's IND AFD with expectation of impending svr wx outbreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Looking at instability progs, that doesn't look like an issue. Wait a sec, aren't the STI maps there valid at two different times on Friday? One looks like its progged for 00z and the other looks like 21z. One was the old run and one the new one. Unsure beyond that. I think the last two there show 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 00z high resolution NAM 4 continues to be much more unstable with ml cape over 2000 all the way to Kokomo. Also has the low a little stronger. 988 mb over far Northwestern Indiana by 22z. Winds backed across much of the Ohio Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 http://www.wxcaster....al_products.htm Here's the link, Beau. Good luck tomorrow. STP by Rich Thompson...about a third of the way down the page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 00z high resolution NAM 4 continues to be much more unstable with ml cape over 2000 all the way to Kokomo. Also has the low a little stronger. 988 mb over far Northwestern Indiana by 22z. Winds backed across much of the Ohio Valley. link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 link? I access it off of GREarth - down to 985 acorss North Central Indiana by 00z with a broken line of sups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 That big pair in north central KY look perilously close to LMK... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeauDodson Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Thanks for the links - appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LouWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Incredible how the NAM slowed down its front and the GFS sped up! Similar to the winter event a couple weeks ago down in TN and KY where the closer temporally we got to the event the farther away the models became. This will make a huge difference on initiation and whether areas west of I-65 see much of anything on the front tomorrow in IN and KY. GFS has more support from the SREF members and RGEM for now, we'll see what the other models wind up doing. By the way it looked like the RGEM had quite a bit of precip painted 12-0z but not sure how much of that was WAA compared to linear on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 If I were SPC I would probably hold off on a high risk for the 6z outlook and wait to see what things look like in the morning. If it does happen, I believe the area most likely to see it would be much of southern IN, southwest OH, central KY and perhaps down into central TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What I think so far...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 If I were SPC I would probably hold off on a high risk for the 6z outlook and wait to see what things look like in the morning. If it does happen, I believe the area most likely to see it would be much of southern IN, southwest OH, central KY and perhaps down into central TN. Yeah, a pretty high-end moderate looks likely for those areas, and there's just way to many questions regarding timing/location along with how much instability can develop before initiation in the early afternoon. 13z outlook should be the first to upgrade to a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrentO Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Damn just south of Evansville (where I live) at about noon-ish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 If I were SPC I would probably hold off on a high risk for the 6z outlook and wait to see what things look like in the morning. If it does happen, I believe the area most likely to see it would be much of southern IN, southwest OH, central KY and perhaps down into central TN. I agree. I'm staying up for the new Day 1 but don't expect any a High Risk to be issued. Hopefully they will give us a clue as their High Risk thinking though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 What I think so far...... I could see an outlook very similar to this, I think at least that a high-end MDT with 15% sig-hatched for tornadoes will be issued somewhere within that MDT risk area you outlined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The mid level jet streak with this thing is seriously impressive. You see winds like that from time to time but often displaced from good instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 WAA is most certainly under way. Shawnee, OK (east of OKC) has had a 16°C (28°F) rise in dewpoint in the last three hours, 4°C (7°F) in the last hour alone. KSNL 020455Z AUTO 17012KT 7SM CLR 18/16 A2950 RMK AO2 KSNL 020435Z AUTO 17013KT 10SM CLR 18/15 A2950 RMK AO2 KSNL 020415Z AUTO 16011G15KT 10SM CLR 18/13 A2952 RMK AO2 KSNL 020355Z AUTO 16012G17KT 10SM CLR 18/12 A2952 RMK AO2 KSNL 020335Z AUTO 16011KT 10SM CLR 18/08 A2953 RMK AO2 KSNL 020315Z AUTO 16010KT 10SM CLR 19/05 A2954 RMK AO2 KSNL 020255Z AUTO 16010G15KT 10SM CLR 19/02 A2955 RMK AO2 KSNL 020235Z AUTO 14008KT 10SM CLR 17/00 A2955 RMK AO2 KSNL 020215Z AUTO 14007KT 10SM CLR 17/00 A2955 RMK AO2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I agree. I'm staying up for the new Day 1 but don't expect any a High Risk to be issued. Hopefully they will give us a clue as their High Risk thinking though... If any high risk, I would guess the strongest storms will be a line from Cincinatti to Nashville. Although the models have backed down a bit on the dynamics, but I wouldn't doubt we see an EF5 or two in that area tomorrow the way things are looking currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yeah you don't see 110+ kt H5 winds with very many severe setups at all, let alone with abundant moisture available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 If any high risk, I would guess the strongest storms will be a line from Cincinatti to Nashville. Although the models have backed down a bit on the dynamics, but I wouldn't doubt we see an EF5 or two in that area tomorrow the way things are looking currently. I'd be careful to placing specific EF scale ratings on this, but the "violent tornado" wording certainly can't be ruled out at all within the coming Day 1 outlooks. And given the rapid storm motions and large warm sector, these could easily be long-tracked. Large area of very high STP at 21z tomorrow: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 The mid level jet streak with this thing is seriously impressive. You see winds like that from time to time but often displaced from good instability. Yeah it really is a scary situation. I actually think SPC will in fact go high at 0600z. That kind of mid-upper level support, significant bombing surface cyclone, combined with deep moisture/instability is gonna do some serious damage unfortunately. Forecast soundings are extremely impressive over a wide area. KY and TN, and even northern AL look scary to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted March 2, 2012 Author Share Posted March 2, 2012 Quite the ramp up once again on sig tor progs with the current image compared to an earlier image this evening. I must admit I was initially worried about theta advection but as Tony indicated it is well underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I officially rescind my previous remark regarding high risk. I anticipate one in the morning, but nt the first outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 Yeah it really is a scary situation. I actually think SPC will in fact go high at 0600z. That kind of mid-upper level support, significant bombing surface cyclone, combined with deep moisture/instability is gonna do some serious damage unfortunately. Forecast soundings are extremely impressive over a wide area. KY and TN, and even northern AL look scary to me. I guess I wouldn't be too surprised either way. I like being cautious but the setup is concerning. I'd never say that so and so is going to see this, but Indiana hasn't had an F4 since 1998 and there's definitely a nonzero threat of that tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 WAA is most certainly under way. Shawnee, OK (east of OKC) has had a 16°C (28°F) rise in dewpoint in the last three hours, 4°C (7°F) in the last hour alone. KSNL 020455Z AUTO 17012KT 7SM CLR 18/16 A2950 RMK AO2 KSNL 020435Z AUTO 17013KT 10SM CLR 18/15 A2950 RMK AO2 KSNL 020415Z AUTO 16011G15KT 10SM CLR 18/13 A2952 RMK AO2 KSNL 020355Z AUTO 16012G17KT 10SM CLR 18/12 A2952 RMK AO2 KSNL 020335Z AUTO 16011KT 10SM CLR 18/08 A2953 RMK AO2 KSNL 020315Z AUTO 16010KT 10SM CLR 19/05 A2954 RMK AO2 KSNL 020255Z AUTO 16010G15KT 10SM CLR 19/02 A2955 RMK AO2 KSNL 020235Z AUTO 14008KT 10SM CLR 17/00 A2955 RMK AO2 KSNL 020215Z AUTO 14007KT 10SM CLR 17/00 A2955 RMK AO2 Impressive stuff. My prediction for a MDT at 06z (15% hatched tornado) remains unchanged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted March 2, 2012 Share Posted March 2, 2012 I think they go strongly worded mod then upgrade at 1300Z although i wouldn't be shocked if they pulled the trigger with first outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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