BrentO

AFD from PAH ...........pretty strong language from them: HOWEVER...TO MAKE MATTERS EVEN WORSE...A VERY SHARP NEGATIVELYTILTED SHORTWAVE WILL EJECT NE INTO MO DURING THE DAYWEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND MOVE NERIGHT UP THE LOWER OH/MID MS RIVER VALLEYS DURING THE DAY WED. ANAREA OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THISSYSTEM AS IT SWEEPS ACROSS THE REGION WED. THE DEGREE OFDESTABILIZATION THAT CAN BECOME ESTABLISHED BETWEEN THE EXITINGMORNING CONVECTION AND THE ADVANCING SFC LOW/COLD FRONT WEDAFTERNOON WILL BE THE BIGGEST FACTOR IN DETERMINING HOW BIG OF ATORNADO OUTBREAK OCCURS IN THE MID SOUTH WED.THE HIGHEST CHC FOR THIS OUTBREAK APPEARS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTHEASTOF THE OHIO RIVER...WHERE THE WARM SECTOR SHOULD BECOME MOSTESTABLISHED WITH 2000 TO 3000 J/KG CAPES AND SFC BASED LIFTEDINDICES FROM -5 TO -10 DEVELOPING BY EARLY AFTERNOON. IF THIS TYPEOF AIR MASS BECOMES ESTABLISHED...VERY STRONG/LONG TRACK TORNADOESWOULD BE POSSIBLE...ESP IN WRN KY ON WED. STAY TUNED.