CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 00z gfs for NNE at 114 00z gfs for SNE I'll give it a chance to move south because confluence might help and the shortwave trough might dig, but I'm not holding out hope yet. Definitely not as torchy as 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I'll give it a chance to move south because confluence might help and the shortwave trough might dig, but I'm not holding out hope yet. Definitely not as torchy as 12z. Yeah, I was comparing 00z @ 108 to 12z @ 120 and I actually thought 00z would be a better solution (colder) for sne. It was, but it didn't help much in the snow department. Like you said, this still has a chance to move south though, the euro is a little further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Yeah, I was comparing 00z @ 108 to 12z @ 120 and I actually thought 00z would be a better solution (colder) for sne. It was, but it didn't help much in the snow department. Like you said, this still has a chance to move south though, the euro is a little further south. I'm totally spent right now. If it happens..great, but I just don't hold out hope until it gets close. If next winter is somehow snowy, I'll probably be divorced because I became involved with snow instead of my wife. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 That's a pretty good ice signal anyway for the interior even with the warm mid-levels...any time you have a high there, its gotta be watched. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I'm totally spent right now. If it happens..great, but I just don't hold out hope until it gets close. If next winter is somehow snowy, I'll probably be divorced because I became involved with snow instead of my wife. LOL. I have spent way too much time on here. At least I'm learning the more I post here, but man I've used up so much of my winter on here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 LOL. I have spent way too much time on here. At least I'm learning the more I post here, but man I've used up so much of my winter on here. You are definitely learning. You can always tell if someone has a clue or not when they post. Even if you are unsure, you're always willing to learn the basics. It's amazing to think what some people know now at the age of 18, as compared to what I knew when I was 18. Internet FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 You are definitely learning. You can always tell if someone has a clue or not when they post. Even if you are unsure, you're always willing to learn the basics. It's amazing to think what some people know now at the age of 18, as compared to what I knew when I was 18. Internet FTW. I appreciate all your posts on here. And agreed, internet FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I'm totally spent right now. If it happens..great, but I just don't hold out hope until it gets close. If next winter is somehow snowy, I'll probably be divorced because I became involved with snow instead of my wife. Someone has had a rough day/week/month. Just take a step back and appreciate the good things in life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I appreciate all your posts on here. And agreed, internet FTW. You are young and it shows at times. Not a negative. I'll be honest, I'm not educated in the weather sciences but time/patience and a willing to learn and be accepting of criticism has helped. Keep your emotions and ego in check and be willing to accept criticism and it goes a long way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 LOL. I have spent way too much time on here. At least I'm learning the more I post here, but man I've used up so much of my winter on here. Heavy heavy throwing away your youth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Someone has had a rough day/week/month. Just take a step back and appreciate the good things in life. Well obviously I'm just adding some humor, but these winters are a nice slap of reality and make you appreciate the good winters. I love winter. I love tracking storms, seeing how they evolve, and enjoying the eventual outcome. I welcome the 50mph gusts after a 2-4" clipper bombing to the east and heralding in 5F temps. I just enjoy active weather. Winter is the season I look forward to, so to have a crappy winter is disappointing, but boy it makes you cherish the good ones. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well obviously I'm just adding some humor, but these winters are a nice slap of reality and make you appreciate the good winters. I love winter. I love tracking storms, seeing how they evolve, and enjoying the eventual outcome. I welcome the 50mph gusts after a 2-4" clipper bombing to the east and heralding in 5F temps. I just enjoy active weather. Winter is the season I look forward to, so to have a crappy winter is disappointing, but boy it makes you cherish the good ones. This has got to be THE worst tropical\winter couplet of my life. Dreadful, dreadful year. I miss the 1995 tropical-winter orgy....and how about the '04 tropical season-'04-'05 winter-'05 record tropical season...not to mention the Pats 2 consecutive SB (3 in 4 years) and the Sox 1st title in 86 years. That 2004-2005 stretch will never be repeated from a sports\weather continuum perspective.......hopefully neither will this year's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Well obviously I'm just adding some humor, but these winters are a nice slap of reality and make you appreciate the good winters. I love winter. I love tracking storms, seeing how they evolve, and enjoying the eventual outcome. I welcome the 50mph gusts after a 2-4" clipper bombing to the east and heralding in 5F temps. I just enjoy active weather. Winter is the season I look forward to, so to have a crappy winter is disappointing, but boy it makes you cherish the good ones. Your post was fitting. I always love a great winter season. As someone who is not educated in this, I've learned to enjoy tracking systems that have no bearing on me. My emotions typically never get in the way of most things in my life, including weather. I appreciate weather for all the good and bad that it brings since it is so unpredictable, which is part of the allure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I'm totally spent right now. If it happens..great, but I just don't hold out hope until it gets close. If next winter is somehow snowy, I'll probably be divorced because I became involved with snow instead of my wife. First time in your three years on here...says something. The upside of this is about 2-5" imo....we aren't pulling a Dec 16, 2007 this season. Hopefully it ends up being a "who cares" icer in the farms of n ORH co because I'm all set with 3-4" of glop, followed by drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Crapy winter isn't the word for this in ne MA........it's like referring to the blizzard of '78 as a noreaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Crapy winter isn't the word for this in ne MA........it's like referring to the blizzard of '78 as a noreaster. Hopefully this is as bad as it can get around here. I never thought I'd potentially get shutout two out of three met winter months. I'd gladly take '01-02 over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Hopefully this is as bad as it can get around here. I never thought I'd potentially get shutout two out of three met winter months. Make no mistake about it....I hope I never experience another winter like this again in my life, nor am I glad that I am experiencing it right now.....BUT, since I am and it does blow this badly, may as well see a little history made at the expense of a couple of entirely unremarkable slush jobs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 14" and holding at KALB. This year could be the #2 most snowless for them. #1 was like 13" so an all time futility record was never gonna happen. It could be the most snowless "met winter" period. That would require some investigation. Someone will have to show me how to donate my $20 to the board....in all likelihood. LOL Hopefully this is as bad as it can get around here. I never thought I'd potentially get shutout two out of three met winter months. I'd gladly take '01-02 over this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 14" and holding at KALB. This year could be the #2 most snowless for them. #1 was like 13" so an all time futility record was never gonna happen. It could be the most snowless "met winter" period. That would require some investigation. Someone will have to show me how to donate my $20 to the board....in all likelihood. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I can't believe that Albany's record is that low....wow...or that they now have an inch less than I do. Valley ftl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Lol...Euro has a long duration event that nets about 12-15" for most of SNE save the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Lol...Euro has a long duration event that nets about 12-15" for most of SNE save the south coast. Yes, please. Fu** futility is we were to have a bonafide event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It looks like the previous Euro runs that gave us 3-6 on the front end except its a bit colder, so we never flip and then it takes the remaning energy and redevelops a coastal much like the GFS and GGEM did on their 00z runs tonight...which prolongs the precip. Its like a 36 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Except far enough south so ALB to BOS gets a snowstorm. Why do I think this will either slip north into that VT/NH/ME area or conversely end up so suppressed that it hits the MA. LOL It looks like the previous Euro runs that gave us 3-6 on the front end except its a bit colder, so we never flip and then it takes the remaning energy and redevelops a coastal much like the GFS and GGEM did on their 00z runs tonight...which prolongs the precip. Its like a 36 hour event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It has a paste bomb at D10 too...but you might as well throw darts at a dartboard even at D5 this year, nevermind D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 At least its 114-132 and other models somewhat agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 At least its 114-132 and other models somewhat agree. The general agreement is there, but the Euro has a notable difference in the confluence being stronger north of NNE which forces the low in the lakes to string out and give us a pretty decent snow event and then allow the leftover enrgy to produce a 2nd round of good snow (though the other warmer models do this as well after the torchier SWFE solution). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Ensembles are very similar to the OP...the OP has a smidge more confluence, but the difference is irrelevant at this stage when talking about an ensemble mean and given its a 120 hour prog...the ensemble mean would still be a lot of snow...maybe a touch more sleet into SNE in round 1 of the front ender if you wanted to get verbatim. If we could get this still on board by Sunday night, then we might have something on our hands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ski MRG Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Ensembles are very similar to the OP...the OP has a smidge more confluence, but the difference is irrelevant at this stage when talking about an ensemble mean and given its a 120 hour prog...the ensemble mean would still be a lot of snow...maybe a touch more sleet into SNE in round 1 of the front ender if you wanted to get verbatim. If we could get this still on board by Sunday night, then we might have something on our hands. You called a more active pattern. Now we have it. Time to cash in. I'm happy as long as it snows here or MRG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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