toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 If the models don't go back to trying to ram this thing to Duluth, I think we should have plenty of low level cold air to work with. It's 3000ft+ off the surface that's concerning. Right now, even with the trends, it looks like more of an ice storm potential rather than snow storm. But I'd take it. Yes especially after this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like another snow event for ottawa. They're really going to start building their snowpack! Steady flurries currently falling here in NE Toronto. Must be lake effect. Toronto must be one of the rare places where your location in the city makesa big difference in the winter. I saw a lot more winter precip yesterday north of the 401 than downtown did for example. You were better off living in Ottawa this winter and every winter foir that matter. Their winters are 10x more better than our crappy winters here in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 If the models don't go back to trying to ram this thing to Duluth, I think we should have plenty of low level cold air to work with. It's 3000ft+ off the surface that's concerning. Right now, even with the trends, it looks like more of an ice storm potential rather than snow storm. But I'd take it. That is my concern especially looking at the Euro. DTX made light of the potential of mix, as did GRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 You were better off living in Ottawa this winter and every winter foir that matter. Their winters are 10x more better than our crappy winters here in Toronto. I'll believe it when I see it. If anything, winters in Toronto are better than most cities across Canada in terms of snow. Besides the LES regions, EONT and the Maritimes we fair better. Just the past 3 winters including this one have been a crap shot. Last year wasn't bad, we got above average snowfall but no decent storm (>8"). but f*ck this winter is so sh!t...it makes 2009-10 look good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like another snow event for ottawa. They're really going to start building their snowpack! Steady flurries currently falling here in NE Toronto. Must be lake effect. Toronto must be one of the rare places where your location in the city makesa big difference in the winter. I saw a lot more winter precip yesterday north of the 401 than downtown did for example. Increasing latitude + lack of proximity to warm lake + lack of heat island effect + closer to snowbelt = it's definitely better to live in the northern suburbs than down by the lake. But I don't think this phenomenon is isolated to Toronto. Look at the difference between what Boston gets per year and what its western suburbs in the higher elevations get. I saw a SNE snowfall map. It was like a 20" gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 I'll believe it when I see it. If anything, winters in Toronto are better than most cities across Canada in terms of snow. Besides the LES regions, EONT and the Maritimes we fair better. Just the past 3 winters including this one have been a crap shot. Last year wasn't bad, we got above average snowfall but no decent storm (>8"). but f*ck this winter is so sh!t...it makes 2009-10 look good. It's basically an W-E snowfall cline across Canada. Controlling for elevation and LES, the least snowiest region is the Pacific coast, the most snowiest is Labrador, with gradation in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's basically an W-E snowfall cline across Canada. Controlling for elevation and LES, the least snowiest region is the Pacific coast, the most snowiest is Labrador, with gradation in between. Yeah I agree with this. Moncton averages around 120"+ every year LOL. Much of the avgs across the Prairies range from 20-40" at the highest. In B.C., elevation usually plays a role. Also I think your sig. is a bit misleading, make it a bit more descriptive or give it a range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Also I think your sig. is a bit misleading, make it a bit more descriptive or give it a range. huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 huh? We'll we've seen storms since 08-09. We saw storms last Winter too. Make it like this. "Toronto, Winter storm free since Dec 2008 (>8")? Jan 2009 had storms around 6-7". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 We'll we've seen storms since 08-09. We saw storms last Winter too. Make it like this. "Toronto, Winter storm free since Dec 2008 (>8")? Jan 2009 had storms around 6-7". Neither Pearson nor Downtown recorded a 6"+ snowstorm in Jan 2009. North York had about 11" on Jan 16-17, 2009 but that was a clipper system heavily influenced by localized LES. Feel free to add your own sig based on your own criteria though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Neither Pearson nor Downtown recorded a 6"+ snowstorm in Jan 2009. North York had about 11" on Jan 16-17, 2009 but that was a clipper system heavily influenced by localized LES. Feel free to add your own sig based on your own criteria though. Hey it still counts haha. But either way I agree with your sig. The last decent storm we had was Dec 19, 08 where I got 8-10" . 2012-13, maybe. This storm how ever maybe a icing event or plain rain. I dont see the consistency just yet for plain snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Increasing latitude + lack of proximity to warm lake + lack of heat island effect + closer to snowbelt = it's definitely better to live in the northern suburbs than down by the lake. But I don't think this phenomenon is isolated to Toronto. Look at the difference between what Boston gets per year and what its western suburbs in the higher elevations get. I saw a SNE snowfall map. It was like a 20" gradient. It's interesting how latitude makes such a difference in Ontario compared to many places. For example, it doesn't make much of a difference at all in the UK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's interesting how latitude makes such a difference in Ontario compared to many places. For example, it doesn't make much of a difference at all in the UK. Same thing happens where I live. I seen it raining in downtown Houghton and only go a mile or two up the hill and it is snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 Looks like SPC is highlighting a risk area for Tuesday into Wednesday they also mention further North The GFS and NAM bring some modest elevated instability farther north into the mid/upper MS Valley, but it's not much. We have seen how the surface temp progs are usually underdone in these setups but only increasing the surface temps probably wouldn't make much difference. If the moisture is also underdone then that could be a game changer. Overall, not much has changed in that the best threat is likely to be focused farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro continues to be on the southern end of solutions. Nice hit just north of MKE. Edit: Maybe even into Milwaukee? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro continues to be on the southern end of solutions. Nice hit just north of MKE. Edit: Maybe even into Milwaukee? So far the Euro, Canadian, and even the NAM have atleast southern Wisconsin and my area of Michigan getting at least SOME wintry weather from the storm. The GFS seems to be off on its own way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
XcNick Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro continues to be on the southern end of solutions. Nice hit just north of MKE. Edit: Maybe even into Milwaukee? Interesting to see if other models start trending South. All that I can say is someone is going to get nailed with snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpsycho Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro continues to be on the southern end of solutions. Nice hit just north of MKE. Edit: Maybe even into Milwaukee? Just need that one solution that hits SE MI so we can have some more fireworks Considering the MJO state it seems to make sense this is not driving as far north (i.e. SLP on thru Duluth) as the model had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro continues to be on the southern end of solutions. Nice hit just north of MKE. Edit: Maybe even into Milwaukee? How about YYZ? 12z EURO looked like it kept the 850mb temps below 0 on the e-wall 24 hour maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 How about YYZ? 12z EURO looked like it kept the 850mb temps below 0 on the e-wall 24 hour maps It's quite borderline around Toronto. Perhaps just cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 It's quite borderline around Toronto. Perhaps just cold enough. Hmm that's surprising looked liked it stayed below freezing but as you said it's borderline. Ice might be the biggest concern for me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 How about YYZ? 12z EURO looked like it kept the 850mb temps below 0 on the e-wall 24 hour maps YYZ: WED 06Z 29-FEB -1.5 -3.9 1025 80 95 0.01 554 534 WED 12Z 29-FEB -2.1 -3.7 1020 81 96 0.00 553 538 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.4 -3.9 1013 83 100 0.12 551 540 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.1 -6.1 1012 87 53 0.18 545 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR -1.3 -3.4 1009 89 62 0.03 542 535 THU 12Z 01-MAR -2.5 -3.6 1008 88 62 0.08 540 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR -0.1 -4.3 1008 92 89 0.10 540 534 FRI 00Z 02-MAR 0.3 -4.2 1011 97 92 0.13 543 534 FRI 06Z 02-MAR 0.4 -4.6 1014 94 73 0.02 545 534 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z Euro continues to be on the southern end of solutions. Nice hit just north of MKE. Edit: Maybe even into Milwaukee? MKE: WED 00Z 29-FEB 0.5 -1.2 1021 79 94 0.02 557 540 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.8 0.4 1013 80 88 0.07 555 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.0 -1.3 1005 94 94 0.40 546 542 WED 18Z 29-FEB 0.9 1.2 1000 93 94 0.13 539 539 THU 00Z 01-MAR 1.1 -4.8 1001 96 100 0.12 536 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR 0.1 -6.4 1002 98 98 0.05 535 533 THU 12Z 01-MAR -0.8 -5.8 1007 92 85 0.04 539 534 THU 18Z 01-MAR 0.9 -7.0 1012 75 58 0.01 544 535 FRI 00Z 02-MAR -0.3 -7.4 1013 88 58 0.01 546 536 FRI 06Z 02-MAR -2.0 -5.6 1013 89 66 0.00 543 533 FRI 12Z 02-MAR -5.0 -4.4 1010 89 9 0.01 538 530 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 YYZ: WED 06Z 29-FEB -1.5 -3.9 1025 80 95 0.01 554 534 WED 12Z 29-FEB -2.1 -3.7 1020 81 96 0.00 553 538 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.4 -3.9 1013 83 100 0.12 551 540 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.1 -6.1 1012 87 53 0.18 545 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR -1.3 -3.4 1009 89 62 0.03 542 535 THU 12Z 01-MAR -2.5 -3.6 1008 88 62 0.08 540 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR -0.1 -4.3 1008 92 89 0.10 540 534 FRI 00Z 02-MAR 0.3 -4.2 1011 97 92 0.13 543 534 FRI 06Z 02-MAR 0.4 -4.6 1014 94 73 0.02 545 534 Thanks Chi storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 25, 2012 Author Share Posted February 25, 2012 YYZ: WED 06Z 29-FEB -1.5 -3.9 1025 80 95 0.01 554 534 WED 12Z 29-FEB -2.1 -3.7 1020 81 96 0.00 553 538 WED 18Z 29-FEB -1.4 -3.9 1013 83 100 0.12 551 540 THU 00Z 01-MAR -2.1 -6.1 1012 87 53 0.18 545 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR -1.3 -3.4 1009 89 62 0.03 542 535 THU 12Z 01-MAR -2.5 -3.6 1008 88 62 0.08 540 533 THU 18Z 01-MAR -0.1 -4.3 1008 92 89 0.10 540 534 FRI 00Z 02-MAR 0.3 -4.2 1011 97 92 0.13 543 534 FRI 06Z 02-MAR 0.4 -4.6 1014 94 73 0.02 545 534 Is YYZ on the north side of town? It didn't seem that cold just eyeballing the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Is YYZ on the north side of town? It didn't seem that cold just eyeballing the maps. It's actually in between Mississauga and Toronto Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Whats Euro showing for LSE? 12z GFS looks like a little snow and then mostly rain.... Doesn't look too impressive... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 MKE: WED 00Z 29-FEB 0.5 -1.2 1021 79 94 0.02 557 540 WED 06Z 29-FEB 0.8 0.4 1013 80 88 0.07 555 544 WED 12Z 29-FEB 0.0 -1.3 1005 94 94 0.40 546 542 WED 18Z 29-FEB 0.9 1.2 1000 93 94 0.13 539 539 THU 00Z 01-MAR 1.1 -4.8 1001 96 100 0.12 536 535 THU 06Z 01-MAR 0.1 -6.4 1002 98 98 0.05 535 533 THU 12Z 01-MAR -0.8 -5.8 1007 92 85 0.04 539 534 THU 18Z 01-MAR 0.9 -7.0 1012 75 58 0.01 544 535 FRI 00Z 02-MAR -0.3 -7.4 1013 88 58 0.01 546 536 FRI 06Z 02-MAR -2.0 -5.6 1013 89 66 0.00 543 533 FRI 12Z 02-MAR -5.0 -4.4 1010 89 9 0.01 538 530 :wub: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 12z NAM shows 6 to 8 for La Crosse... At least through 84hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted February 25, 2012 Share Posted February 25, 2012 Whats Euro showing for LSE? 12z GFS looks like a little snow and then mostly rain.... Doesn't look too impressive... You get absolutely drilled! I'm thinking there is going to be a pretty legit ice threat with this one too with that High off to the NE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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