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Feb 22nd-24th Severe Thread


andyhb

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Would not be entirely shocked to see a TOR for this storm as it moves

between Nicholson and Athens. FFC has now stated that the storm

has very noticeable rotation, more so than earlier.

Would not surprise me either. FFC has issuing warnings about a county ahead of the storm now.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1209 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PEACHTREE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

CLARKE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

OGLETHORPE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST GEORGIA

* UNTIL 1245 AM EST

* AT 1206 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZED HAIL...AND

DAMAGING WINDS UP TO 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR

NICHOLSON...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

ATHENS...ILA...HULL...WINTERVILLE...DANIELSVILLE...COLBERT...

ARNOLDSVILLE...COMER...CRAWFORD...LEXINGTON AND CARLTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DOPPLER RADAR HAS INDICATED ROTATION WITHIN THIS STORM. ALTHOUGH

CURRENT DATA DOES NOT INDICATE THE EXISTENCE OF A TORNADO...A TORNADO

MAY STILL DEVELOP. IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO

A PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR

SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

post-2167-0-72164600-1329974024.png

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Radar showing strong inflow into a circulation is what concerns me usually.

At 1210 EST, the radar showed somewhat of an inflow shape on reflectivity,

while also showing the storms hail intensity had lessened a little. I have

studied storms that I have followed over the past year or so, and about

5 or 6 of these type of storms went on to produce either a tornado or

destructive straight-line winds.

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New day 1:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1154 PM CST WED FEB 22 2012

VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE OH/TN VALLEYS

AND DEEP SOUTH...

...SYNOPSIS...

INTENSE MID-LEVEL JET FROM THE PACIFIC NW TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES WILL

PROGRESS EWD ON THU...AIDING IN AMPLIFICATION OF A SHORT WAVE

IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS FEATURE SHOULD

REACH THE LOWER/MID-MO VALLEY BY EVENING AND REMAIN

POSITIVELY-TILTED AS IT EJECTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST TOWARDS THE LOWER

GREAT LAKES THROUGH FRI MORNING. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED

TO BE INVOF IL/IND BORDER BY 00Z...WITH A W/E-ORIENTED WARM FRONT

SHIFTING NWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. THIS LOW SHOULD TRACK TOWARDS LK

ERIE...WHILE AN ATTENDANT COLD FRONT SWEEPS E/SEWD ACROSS THE MS/TN

VALLEYS AND WRN GULF COAST IN THE EVENING...BEFORE REACHING THE

CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS AND CNTRL GULF COAST BY 12Z/FRI.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

IN THE WAKE OF THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CURRENTLY OVER THE CNTRL/SRN

APPALACHIANS...STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL WLYS HAVE ENVELOPED THE RESIDUAL

WARM SECTOR FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE CNTRL GULF COAST. ALTHOUGH

MODEST BACKING TO SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE N-CNTRL

CONUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AMPLIFIES...THIS TYPE OF REGIME SHOULD SERVE

TO LIMIT THE VERTICAL EXTENT OF RICHER GULF MOISTURE BENEATH AN

EXPANDING EML.

EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE VARY MARKEDLY WITH THEIR HANDLING OF THE

MOISTURE RETURN TOWARDS THE LOWER OH VALLEY. THE NAM AND

WRF-NMM/ETA-BASED MEMBERS OF THE SREF ARE MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN THE

GFS/ECMWF AND WRF-ARW/RSM MEMBERS OF THE SREF...WHICH RESULTS IN

SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES IN BUOYANCY PROFILES.

NEVERTHELESS...VIGOROUS LARGE-SCALE ASCENT COUPLED WITH DAYTIME

HEATING SHOULD YIELD TSTM INITIATION INVOF SURFACE CYCLONE NEAR THE

LOWER OH VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. HERE...VERY STRONG DEEP-LAYER

SHEAR AND AT LEAST MEAGER INSTABILITY WOULD PROMOTE A RISK FOR

ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS AND EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS. BUT GIVEN THE

UNCERTAINTY IN THE QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE...WILL

REFRAIN FROM INTRODUCING HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES ATTM.

WITH SRN EXTENT...CONFIDENCE LESSENS ON TSTM INITIATION AS STRONGER

LARGE-SCALE ASCENT LARGELY REMAINS N OF THE OH VALLEY. BUT

CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD FRONT ALONG WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT

FALLS MAY RESULT IN TSTMS FORMING SWD ACROSS THE TN VALLEY INTO THE

DEEP SOUTH DURING THE EVENING. EVEN WITH ONLY WEAK

INSTABILITY...DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED

SUPERCELLS WITH ALL SEVERE THREATS POSSIBLE.

TOWARDS THE CNTRL GULF COAST...GUIDANCE IS LARGELY CONSISTENT IN

MAINTAINING AN EML THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. SOME POTENTIAL FOR

TSTM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD EXIST OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BUT

MODEST INSTABILITY AND VEERING/WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD

RESULT IN A MORE MARGINAL SEVERE RISK RELATIVE TO FARTHER N.

..GRAMS/LEITMAN.. 02/23/2012

Wouldn't be surprised if the risks were expanded westward if a more NAM-like solution comes into fruition.

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FFC says they will send a survey crew to investigate the damage in Floyd county

to see if there was a tornado that occurred. The radar did not show a whole lot

in the area of question, but this is the same area where both an EF-2 and EF-3

happened in December without a TOR as well. Must be something to do with the

mountains and how the radar beam interacts with them. It is a long way from

where Rome is located.

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Honestly I like the warm front play in S. IN. The 0z NAM was kind of bullish on CAPE IMO, but did show some fairly decent instability near Evansville. The 4 KM WRF 0z breaks out a cluster of storms in the area. Maybe a couple of mini-sups? If I had to chase tomorrow I would be around Seymour, IN. I like that area a hell of a lot better than any other area tomorrow. Give me a nice warm front play any day. Marginal setup but if I were local I would be watching sfc obs and mesoanalysis like a hawk

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FFC says the NAM has missed the boat... drying us out too much...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA

1025 AM EST THU FEB 23 2012

.UPDATE...

CURRENT SATELLITE ANALYSIS SHOWS SCATTERED CLOUDS IN NORTH AND

CENTRAL GEORGIA AND A MORE BROKEN TO OVERCAST CLOUD DECK IN

COLUMBUS...EAST INTO MACON. ADJUSTED THE SKY GRIDS TO REPRESENT

THIS. CURRENT SURFACE DEWPOINTS WERE HIGHER THAN FORECAST. AS

SUCH...POPULATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT 12Z RUC DEWPOINTS THAT

WERE MORE REPRESENTATIVE OF CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS. THIS

MEANT THAT SOME AREAS SAW AN INCREASE OF 5 DEGREES OR MORE IN

DEWPOINT TEMPS. THE NAM SEEMS TO BE UNREALISTICALLY DRYING US OUT

THIS AFTERNOON...AS SUCH BELIEVE THAT THE 06Z NAM MIGHT BE UNDER

REPRESENTING THE CHANCE OF THUNDER. WILL WAIT FOR 12Z GUIDANCE TO

BETTER PIN DOWN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EVENING AND INTO

THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ALSO ADJUSTED THE TEMPS TO BETTER REPRESENT

CURRENT WARMING TRENDS.

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I am inclined to believe the NAM with its dry forecast this afternoon/evening, not really seeing a trigger for convection except the front later tonight/tomorrow AM. The RUC and HRRR keep trying to break out precip but it is rather spotty and light looking. So if we get severe it will probably be of the morning variety.

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FFC says they will send a survey crew to investigate the damage in Floyd county

to see if there was a tornado that occurred. The radar did not show a whole lot

in the area of question, but this is the same area where both an EF-2 and EF-3

happened in December without a TOR as well. Must be something to do with the

mountains and how the radar beam interacts with them. It is a long way from

where Rome is located.

As suspected, a tornado was confirmed:

EF-1 from eastern city of Rome to 5 miles east of Rome.

3.25 miles path length and max 95 mph winds.

Worst structure damage was the store and a mobile

home, both lost their roof. Indirect fatality was a 75 year

old female who suffered a heart attack after the storm

passed the area,

FFC did not have much on their rafar (or Huntsville's for

that matter) indicating a tornado in either velocity or

reflectivity. I tracked the cluster from Gadsden to Athens,

and it showed signs of rotating frequently, but rarely to

a point justifying a TOR. However, the one thing that

they could have done better was the SVR for Floyd Co

could have had the "severe thunderstorms can produce

tornadoes with no advanced warning" statement because

of its rotating history in Northeastern Alabama.

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From the 33/40 blog

With dynamic forcing approaches from the west, the cap should break sometime between 8:00 and 10:00 p.m… and showers and storms will form. Ultimately a line of storms will form late tonight and move through the state; the primary threat will come from hail and strong, gusty winds with this line, but one or two isolated tornadoes can’t be ruled out completely.

Seems like now our main window for strong to severe storms will come from about 9:00 p.m. until 3:00 a.m., with the highest chance of seeing a severe storm along and north of I-20.

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This was the day 2 outlook to go with that image:

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1129 AM CST THU FEB 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FRIDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE

EASTERN GULF STATES THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC

COAST REGION...

...SYNOPSIS...

MODELS SUGGEST THAT UPPER FLOW WILL BECOME MORE PROGRESSIVE ACROSS

THE EASTERN PACIFIC INTO WESTERN NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS FORECAST

PERIOD. THE AMPLIFIED EASTERN PACIFIC RIDGE APPEARS LIKELY TO

BREAKDOWN AS A SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH...NOW BEGINNING TO LIFT

AROUND ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY...DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL

PACIFIC COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS ...AN AMPLIFYING

DOWNSTREAM TROUGH...WITH EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES...IS

EXPECTED TO SHIFT EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AND THE LINGERING

CLOSED LOW OVER MEXICO PROBABLY WILL BEGIN TO ACCELERATE MORE

RAPIDLY TOWARD THE WESTERN GULF BASIN.

A DEEP SURFACE CYCLONE ACCOMPANYING THE EASTERN TROUGH LIKELY WILL

MIGRATE FROM THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY/LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH

THE NORTHEAST...WITH SECONDARY SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS TAKING PLACE

ACROSS THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION. THE TRAILING COLD

FRONT MAY BE IN THE PROCESS OF ADVANCING OFFSHORE ACROSS

WESTERN/CENTRAL GULF COAST AREAS AT 12Z FRIDAY...BUT IT IS NOT

EXPECTED TO ADVANCE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND ACROSS THE ATLANTIC

SEABOARD UNTIL THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

MOISTENING IN THE PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE

EASTERN GULF COAST STATES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN AND MID ATLANTIC

COAST STATES...COUPLED WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF VERY STRONG

SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW FIELDS...SHOULD SUPPORT

INCREASING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THIS WILL INCLUDE THE RISK FOR

SEVERE STORMS.

...EASTERN GULF STATES THRU SRN/MID ATLANTIC COAST...

LINGERING SPREAD AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING THE DETAILS OF THE

EVOLVING PATTERN...AND CONCERN ABOUT THE DEGREE OF THE POTENTIALLY

DRYING DOWNSLOPE LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPONENT...ARE CONTRIBUTING TO

CONTINUING UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM

POTENTIAL FOR FRIDAY. HOWEVER...SOME GUIDANCE... PARTICULARLY THE

NAM...IS SUGGESTIVE OF CONSIDERABLY GREATER POTENTIAL THAN DEPICTED

BY THE CURRENT OUTLOOK...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS

INTO SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA.

THE NAM/SREF INDICATE A GOOD LIKELIHOOD THAT SUFFICIENT MOISTENING

WILL OCCUR AND BE MAINTAINED ACROSS THE PIEDMONT INTO THE COASTAL

PLAINS FOR AFTERNOON MIXED LAYER CAPE REACHING 500 J/KG. IF THIS

BECOMES THE CASE...GIVEN FAVORABLE LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR UPWARD

VERTICAL MOTION...ONE OR MORE BROKEN LINES OF STORMS SEEM

PROBABLE...IN REGIME WHERE MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY

STRONG AND SHEARED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND FIELDS OF 50-60+ KT.

POTENTIAL COULD DEVELOP FOR...AT LEAST... FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND

POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED DAMAGING WIND

GUSTS. A FEW TORNADOES MAY ALSO NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION.

POTENTIAL INSTABILITY TRENDS WILL HAVE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED IN

SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD.

..KERR.. 02/23/2012

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6fcg9d.png

Looks like mostly showers everywhere and a few thunderstorms in Alabama.

NWS Jacksonville

COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING THE AREA AT 12Z

FRIDAY. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A STRONG SW FLOW WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL

SHEAR. THIS WILL RESULT IN STRONG/DAMAGING WINDS BEING POSSIBLE OVER

MAINLY SE GA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. MID LEVEL FORCING WILL BE

STRONGEST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA THUS LIMITING POTENTIAL FOR

ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER OVER NE FL AS THE FRONT PUSHES S BY LATE

AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT SHOULD CLEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY NIGHT WITH RAIN

CHANCES ENDING.

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We certainly are not out of the woods with this one yet:

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK

1153 PM CST THU FEB 23 2012

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC TO THE

SOUTHEAST TODAY THROUGH EARLY EVENING...

...SYNOPSIS...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE IA/IL/MO BORDER WILL UNDERGO

SUBSTANTIAL AMPLIFICATION AS IT TRACKS E/NEWD AND REACHES THE LOWER

GREAT LAKES BY 00Z. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL JET STREAK CENTERED OVER THE

SRN PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU WILL STRENGTHEN WITH A BELT OF INTENSE

SWLYS AOA 120 KT ARCING FROM THE TN VALLEY TO THE MID-ATLANTIC AT

00Z. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL SHIFT NEWD FROM THE LOWER OH

VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...WHILE SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS

OCCURS IN THE CHESAPEAKE REGION IN THE AFTERNOON. A COLD FRONT WILL

MARCH E/SEWD AND WILL STRETCH SWWD FROM THE CHESAPEAKE LOW INTO THE

SOUTHEAST...EXITING THE ERN SEABOARD /OUTSIDE OF THE FL PENINSULA/

DURING THE EVENING.

...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST...

THE COMBINATION OF INTENSE KINEMATIC FIELDS OVERSPREADING A MODEST

BUT SUFFICIENTLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR SHOULD YIELD AN ENHANCED

POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW

DAYS. EVENING MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT THAT AT LEAST

ISOLATED TSTMS SHOULD FORM BY 12Z THIS MORNING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF

COAST STATES...AS A SHARP COLD FRONT IMPINGES UPON A PLUME OF RICHER

GULF MOISTURE /CHARACTERIZED BY OBSERVED GPS AND 00Z TLH RAOB PW

VALUES NEAR 1.5 IN/. ACTIVITY SHOULD GROW UPSCALE DURING THE MORNING

HOURS AS DIURNAL HEATING OCCURS DOWNSTREAM WITHIN A BROADENING WARM

SECTOR CHARACTERIZED BY LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. WITH

EFFECTIVE SHEAR INITIALLY AROUND 60 KT...A RISK FOR ISOLATED

DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES WILL EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DEEP

SOUTH.

WITH TIME...KINEMATIC FIELDS ARE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN

/PARTICULARLY FROM 700 MB AND HIGHER ALOFT/...PROMOTING RATHER FAST

STORM MOTION AND LIKELY AIDING IN THE ORGANIZATION OF ONE OF MORE

BROKEN LINES OF STORMS RACING TOWARDS THE CAROLINAS BY EARLY

AFTERNOON. A BROAD ZONE OF 60-90 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR AMIDST

CONTINUING DESTABILIZATION MAY YIELD FAIRLY WIDESPREAD...AND

POTENTIALLY QUITE STRONG...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALTHOUGH THE MOST

INTENSE SPEED SHEAR SHOULD PRIMARILY BE CONCENTRATED ABOVE THE

BOUNDARY LAYER...850 MB WINDS STRENGTHENING TO AOA 50 KT WILL BE

FAVORABLE FOR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A FEW

TORNADOES.

STILL...THE EXPECTATION OF MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES LIMITING

INSTABILITY AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE DEGREE OF SURFACE HEATING

WILL PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK ATTM.

..GRAMS/MOSIER/LEITMAN.. 02/24/2012

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Tomorrow could get nasty for us in the Carolina's tomorrow. Of course, I would of thought that the Ohio Valley would of gotten some pretty decent storms today, but they really didn't get much in the way of anything. Is tomorrow just more conducive for severe weather then it was today?

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Tomorrow could get nasty for us in the Carolina's tomorrow. Of course, I would of thought that the Ohio Valley would of gotten some pretty decent storms today, but they really didn't get much in the way of anything. Is tomorrow just more conducive for severe weather then it was today?

Moisture return problems helped limit the svr threat in the OV today.

Wind profiles will be more favorable today and capping further south will be less of a problem.

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Moisture return problems helped limit the svr threat in the OV today.

Wind profiles will be more favorable today and capping further south will be less of a problem.

That makes sense, thanks! The upside to this outbreak is that it will be during the day and not at night when people are sleeping.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN

433 AM EST FRI FEB 24 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MORRISTOWN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

WISE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

CITY OF NORTON IN SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA...

* UNTIL 500 AM EST

* AT 426 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR BENHAM.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS TORNADO MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE...

NORTON...WISE...PARDEE...POUND...COEBURN AND ST. PAUL.

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NWS JACKSONVILLE

WINDY AND WARM TODAY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SEVERE

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY...THE AREA WILL BE FIRMLY ENTRENCHED WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR

AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST. A

STRONG LLJ OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS...AS LOW AS 2500 FEET ABOVE GROUND

LEVEL...WILL BE OVER THE AREA TODAY. DECENT MIXING PROFILES (FOR

FEBRUARY) WILL ALLOW STRONG WIND GUSTS TO MIX DOWN TO THE

SURFACE. A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE MORNING TO LATE

AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL FREQUENTLY GUST TO 35 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL

GUSTS AS HIGH AS 45 MPH AND ISOLATED GUSTS AS HIGH AS 50 MPH.

ISOLATED DAMAGE IS POSSIBLE WITH WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED

THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A FAST MOVING

SQUALL LINE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL BE

HIGHEST ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND THE SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY OF

NORTHEAST FLORIDA WHERE LIFTED INDICES ARE PROGGED TO BE AS HIGH

AS -5. ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM WORDING HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE

FORECAST. THE LINE WILL WEAKEN AS IT RACES SOUTHEAST ACROSS

NORTHEAST FLORIDA EARLY THIS EVENING BUT STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL

MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE EVEN IN SHOWER ACTIVITY.

NEAR RECORD HEAT WILL ALSO BE A STORY TODAY AS TEMPS SOAR INTO THE

80S ACROSS THE AREA. TEMPS WILL MAX OUT IN THE UPPER 80S ALONG THE

I-95 CORRIDOR. WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S...CAPE VALUES WILL CLIMB

AS HIGH AS 1000 TO 2000 J/KG.

Wow we are already going to see winds up to possibly 50mph without the storms!

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