mattinpa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Lock it up....matt and ant staying up for the euro all week I stay up late anyway, so it's easy. But really, is there anything to keep this storm from going south or west? The pattern still seems thread the needle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Storm is OTS on the GFS. The flow is zonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The short, medium, and long range on the gfs is awful if you are looking for snow. +NAO, -PNA, and we are heading into march. It's over, now let's torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The short, medium, and long range on the gfs is awful if you are looking for snow. +NAO, -PNA, and we are heading into march. It's over, now let's torch One run? Wouldn't let that be the determining factor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Storm is OTS on the GFS. The flow is zonal. The ensembles are quite different then the OP and still have the high pressure north and the storm along the coast http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12192.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/00zgfsensemblep12216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The short, medium, and long range on the gfs is awful if you are looking for snow. +NAO, -PNA, and we are heading into march. It's over, now let's torch I'm ready for the beach. If you had told me back in October that we would literally have 4.5 straight months of 40s and 50s with absolutely no departure from that absent a day here or there, I would have told you about a particular bridge I had to sell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 One run? Wouldn't let that be the determining factor. Dude. Have you been asleep since Nov 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 Dude. Have you been asleep since Nov 1? There is always the chance even in a terrible pattern that you can get the right set up for a couple of days or weeks to have snowstorms - still have over a month and a half left for that to potentially happen. Back in March of 1956 they were probably saying the same -"winter is over " BUT in NYC they had less then 10 inches of snow for the season through Feb . then after March 1 they ended up with 25.3 additional inches of snow - the same thing has happened in other years also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 There is always the chance even in a terrible pattern that you can get the right set up for a couple of days or weeks to have snowstorms - still have over a month and a half left for that to potentially happen. Back in March of 1956 they were probably saying the same -"winter is over " BUT in NYC they had less then 10 inches of snow for the season through Feb . then after March 1 they ended up with 25.3 additional inches of snow - the same thing has happened in other years also How many times in a terrible pattern in ultra late Feb/March did people say it was over, and it actually was over? How many years do you think that happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 0z Euro has low pressure along the coast cold high pressure to the north - March does not look like it is going to come in like a lamb this year http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS168.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Dude. Have you been asleep since Nov 1? No. I could see the winter being a reason to be pessimistic about a storm, but that run was different than the past few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The ensembles are quite different then the OP and still have the high pressure north and the storm along the coast http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12192.gif http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12216.gif Do you know how many snowstorms the GFS ensembles and long range GFS have given me? Then what the reality of the season actually is? About 19 inches below normal.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Would be great if we could pull a 1991-92 like comeback in March, not crossing my fingers but given the increase in the active storm track we look like we'll have it sure gives us a chance if we can get the timing down right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 But we've been saying that all winter long now... Anyway, the 06z GFS looks nice, probably too warm along the coast though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 I would be absolutely shocked if this storm came to fruition. This winter has not delivered at all, save for the rogue storm back in january. One thing that the gfs and euro have been showing with that storm for days now that cold high pressure to the north that may filter down some cold air and the consistency as well..... For now. Anyway back to earth, we have until 48 hours to really see whats going on so lets not get too excited we've got burned this year already plenty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 But we've been saying that all winter long now... Anyway, the 06z GFS looks nice, probably too warm along the coast though... last week we were worrying about that at first BUT I wouldn't worry about the track yet according to the 6Z GFS yes its too warm when precip begins BUT as the storm hits the coast the cold air wraps in and we get several inches of snow http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif I think the important thing here is that there has been a storm during this time period on both the Euro and GFS for a few days now and there is cold enough air involved at some point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 The GFS and Euro have been have been wavering back and forth somewhere between a warm solution or cold and dry solution here. I can see it being easily either way, with the unfavorable telleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 The GFS and Euro have been have been wavering back and forth somewhere between a warm solution or cold and dry solution here. I can see it being easily either way, with the unfavorable telleconnections. this isn't warm or cold and dry its rain changing to snow and cold-BUT always have to keep it on the table - http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 March looks like it will be coming in like a lion, even if this storm is rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Looks like a vortex redevelops over the Gulf of Alaska toward the end of last night's Euro run. If true=game over. Can't emphasize enough how it's almost impossible for winter weather here with that feature in place. The whole continent gets demolished with Pacific air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 this isn't warm or cold and dry its rain changing to snow and cold-BUT always have to keep it on the table - http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif It's warm. Take a look at 2m temps. That's not accumulating snow, verbatim. Also 850mb temps don't crash, until much that qpf has fallen, anway. A warm solution to me is anything that shows mostly rain or non-accumulating snow for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's warm. Take a look at 2m temps. That's not accumulating snow, verbatim. Also 850mb temps don't crash, until much that qpf has fallen, anway. A warm solution to me is anything that shows mostly rain or non-accumulating snow for us. Agreed. That solution is warm for the coast. Interestingly enough, the 0z euro ensembles still have the same storm for March 1st. Very wet with close to .75" of precip and a low off the coast. Pretty impressive for a day 8 ensemble product. The ensembles have pointed to this period for 7-8 runs in a row; Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 March looks like it will be coming in like a lion, even if this storm is rain. i`m happy when a rainstorm gets you excited. , shows growth . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 22, 2012 Author Share Posted February 22, 2012 It's warm. Take a look at 2m temps. That's not accumulating snow, verbatim. Also 850mb temps don't crash, until much that qpf has fallen, anway. A warm solution to me is anything that shows mostly rain or non-accumulating snow for us. not with a 988 low a few miles east of us off the coast its heavy precip ---the precip has not ended before the changeover - its rain changing to wet snow and a few inches on this run from central NJ north 2M temps are in the mid 30's and falling http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif also the NAO is about to go negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 not with a 988 low a few miles east of us off the coast its heavy precip ---the precip has not ended before the changeover - its rain changing to wet snow and a few inches on this run from central NJ north 2M temps are in the mid 30's and falling http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif also the NAO is about to go negative Probs not... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 not with a 988 low a few miles east of us off the coast its heavy precip ---the precip has not ended before the changeover - its rain changing to wet snow and a few inches on this run from central NJ north 2M temps are in the mid 30's and falling http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif also the NAO is about to go negative LOL-the NAO has been severely positive for the whole winter-aint going to change now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yep. That sub 500 thickness of a low sitting over the Davis straights has killed us all winter(when the Alaskan PV wasn't around) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 As per the theme of this winter, a snowstorm will be threading a needle within a needle. If we couldn't get a significant event since mid Jan when the AO was negative, why should we get one now when basically everything is against us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 As per the theme of this winter, a snowstorm will be threading a needle within a needle. If we couldn't get a significant event since mid Jan when the AO was negative, why should we get one now when basically everything is against us? I guess the only thing is if mother nature has a sense of humor... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 GFS says enjoy the cutter. 988 Low over Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.