NEG NAO Posted February 20, 2012 Author Share Posted February 20, 2012 18Z GFS still has the storm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12228.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I wouldn't call it a storm per se; rather, it would be a moderate overrunning event. 18Z GFS still has the storm http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12228.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toople Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18Z GFS still has the storm http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12228.gif Who knows what the storm will do. It could be rain, snow, or nothing. I would only be surprised if we get alot of snow from this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z DGEX looks interesting Day 8 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z DGEX looks interesting Day 8 http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex850mbTSLPp06192.gif Did you link the right image? Because I see nothing exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 I really don't think these nao ao pna arguments hold any water - example Oct 29 - if we can have a snowstorm Oct 29 we can surely have one Feb - 28 - March 1 - plus don't you see all the cold air available before and during that time frame ? there hasnt been cold air all winter, as a matter of fact there hasnt been a day all winter that you needed anything other than a coat, ...now as we enter March all this cold air is going to become available??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 There's no support for a snow event in this pattern, in fact, things couldn't look much worse for the next couple weeks on the East Coast. I'll be back in summer clothes the end of this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 there hasnt been cold air all winter, as a matter of fact there hasnt been a day all winter that you needed anything other than a coat, ...now as we enter March all this cold air is going to become available??? Canada will become quite cold over the coming weeks but it'll be more of a tease than anything, as our pattern doesn't really change due to unfavorable teleconnectors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18z DGEX looks interesting Day 8 http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp06192.gif here is the corresponding h5 map...http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/dgex/18zdgex500mbHGHTNA192.gif about as interesting as watching flies mate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ace0927 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Canada will become quite cold over the coming weeks but it'll be more of a tease than anything, as our pattern doesn't really change due to unfavorable teleconnectors. no offense, but I have noticed the models make canada appear cold in the short and mid term all winter and it has never come to fruition...im banking on us not seeing another stretch of highs even in the 30's...maybe a day here or there...but this baby was DOA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 There's no support for a snow event in this pattern, in fact, things couldn't look much worse for the next couple weeks on the East Coast. I'll be back in summer clothes the end of this week. What do think of the NAM at 48 a threw 57h, looks like .25 with marginal 850's at night? Plus current GFS looks interesting at day 4? Probibly both out to lunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 What do think of the NAM at 48 a threw 57h, looks like .25 with marginal 850's at night? Plus current GFS looks interesting at day 4? Probibly both out to lunch. Light mix at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 What do think of the NAM at 48 a threw 57h, looks like .25 with marginal 850's at night? Plus current GFS looks interesting at day 4? Probibly both out to lunch. Light mix at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 What do think of the NAM at 48 a threw 57h, looks like .25 with marginal 850's at night? Plus current GFS looks interesting at day 4? Probibly both out to lunch. For hours 48-57, terrible boundary layer, nothing close to cold at the surface with the sounding posted below. An easy rain call IMO. The 0z GFS tries to develop moderate precipitation off the coast on Friday night with its trend away from the big storm originally shown for the late week, surface temps are far from favorable for that one too. Maybe if we're lucky we could see a little bit of snow through early-mid March, but I'm really not optimistic about snow chances for the rest of this non-winter with the unfavorable pattern coming up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 0Z Euro colder http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS216.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/00zeuro850mbTSLPUS240.gif Storm threat still there on 6z GFS http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 12z GFS still has the cold and storm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12192.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/12zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 This event has a chance if and only if it stays weak, the high pressure would serve to create some overruning but we'd have to avoid any sort of mammoth cyclogenesis getting going in the southern Plains or TN Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 12Z Euro has cold and a Low http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/euro/12zeuro850mbTSLPUS192.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser25973 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Reminds me of the March 2002 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 21, 2012 Author Share Posted February 21, 2012 18Z GFS still showing the storm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12216.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Euro ensembles also have this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 18Z GFS still showing the storm http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/18zgfs850mbTSLPp12216.gif BL is marginal, but a least we aren't seeing only rainy or OTS solutions. Potential is there, but still way too far out to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Euro ensembles also have this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Assuming the high is there it at least has the chance to be a 3-5 inches of snow over to rain type event, the only way though to keep it all snow in the setup with the high in that position but no -NAO and no western ridge would be to keep the low weak like 2/11/94 or PDII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Euro at 192 looks like last week....storm coming into west...crappy ridge position....storm gets kick ots. Not interesting at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Euro at 192 looks like last week....storm coming into west...crappy ridge position....storm gets kick ots. Not interesting at all Yep, enough said. The GFS has been showing a storm for the past 8 runs already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 21, 2012 Share Posted February 21, 2012 Euro at 192 looks like last week....storm coming into west...crappy ridge position....storm gets kick ots. Not interesting at all The Op run does, the ensembles look more like the GFS and the GEM with the high over southern Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Yep, enough said. The GFS has been showing a storm for the past 8 runs already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 22, 2012 Share Posted February 22, 2012 Lock it up....matt and ant staying up for the euro all week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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