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2/29 - 3/1


NEG NAO

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The short, medium, and long range on the gfs is awful if you are looking for snow. +NAO, -PNA, and we are heading into march. It's over, now let's torch

I'm ready for the beach. If you had told me back in October that we would literally have 4.5 straight months of 40s and 50s with absolutely no departure from that absent a day here or there, I would have told you about a particular bridge I had to sell you.

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Dude. Have you been asleep since Nov 1?

There is always the chance even in a terrible pattern that you can get the right set up for a couple of days or weeks to have snowstorms - still have over a month and a half left for that to potentially happen. Back in March of 1956 they were probably saying the same -"winter is over " BUT in NYC they had less then 10 inches of snow for the season through Feb . then after March 1 they ended up with 25.3 additional inches of snow - the same thing has happened in other years also

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There is always the chance even in a terrible pattern that you can get the right set up for a couple of days or weeks to have snowstorms - still have over a month and a half left for that to potentially happen. Back in March of 1956 they were probably saying the same -"winter is over " BUT in NYC they had less then 10 inches of snow for the season through Feb . then after March 1 they ended up with 25.3 additional inches of snow - the same thing has happened in other years also

How many times in a terrible pattern in ultra late Feb/March did people say it was over, and it actually was over? How many years do you think that happened?

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The ensembles are quite different then the OP and still have the high pressure north and the storm along the coast

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12192.gif

http://raleighwx.ame...emblep12216.gif

Do you know how many snowstorms the GFS ensembles and long range GFS have given me? Then what the reality of the season actually is? About 19 inches below normal..

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I would be absolutely shocked if this storm came to fruition. This winter has not delivered at all, save for the rogue storm back in january. One thing that the gfs and euro have been showing with that storm for days now that cold high pressure to the north that may filter down some cold air and the consistency as well..... For now. Anyway back to earth, we have until 48 hours to really see whats going on so lets not get too excited we've got burned this year already plenty

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But we've been saying that all winter long now... :(

Anyway, the 06z GFS looks nice, probably too warm along the coast though...

last week we were worrying about that at first BUT

I wouldn't worry about the track yet according to the 6Z GFS yes its too warm when precip begins BUT as the storm hits the coast the cold air wraps in and we get several inches of snow

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif

I think the important thing here is that there has been a storm during this time period on both the Euro and GFS for a few days now and there is cold enough air involved at some point

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The GFS and Euro have been have been wavering back and forth somewhere between a warm solution or cold and dry solution here. I can see it being easily either way, with the unfavorable telleconnections.

this isn't warm or cold and dry

its rain changing to snow and cold-BUT always have to keep it on the table -

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs/06zgfs850mbTSLPp12204.gif

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this isn't warm or cold and dry

its rain changing to snow and cold-BUT always have to keep it on the table -

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif

It's warm. Take a look at 2m temps. That's not accumulating snow, verbatim. Also 850mb temps don't crash, until much that qpf has fallen, anway.

A warm solution to me is anything that shows mostly rain or non-accumulating snow for us.

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It's warm. Take a look at 2m temps. That's not accumulating snow, verbatim. Also 850mb temps don't crash, until much that qpf has fallen, anway.

A warm solution to me is anything that shows mostly rain or non-accumulating snow for us.

Agreed. That solution is warm for the coast.

Interestingly enough, the 0z euro ensembles still have the same storm for March 1st. Very wet with close to .75" of precip and a low off the coast. Pretty impressive for a day 8 ensemble product. The ensembles have pointed to this period for 7-8 runs in a row;

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It's warm. Take a look at 2m temps. That's not accumulating snow, verbatim. Also 850mb temps don't crash, until much that qpf has fallen, anway.

A warm solution to me is anything that shows mostly rain or non-accumulating snow for us.

not with a 988 low a few miles east of us off the coast its heavy precip ---the precip has not ended before the changeover - its rain changing to wet snow and a few inches on this run from central NJ north 2M temps are in the mid 30's and falling

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif

also the NAO is about to go negative

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not with a 988 low a few miles east of us off the coast its heavy precip ---the precip has not ended before the changeover - its rain changing to wet snow and a few inches on this run from central NJ north 2M temps are in the mid 30's and falling

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif

also the NAO is about to go negative

Probs not...

nao.sprd2.gif

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not with a 988 low a few miles east of us off the coast its heavy precip ---the precip has not ended before the changeover - its rain changing to wet snow and a few inches on this run from central NJ north 2M temps are in the mid 30's and falling

http://raleighwx.ame...bTSLPp12204.gif

also the NAO is about to go negative

LOL-the NAO has been severely positive for the whole winter-aint going to change now

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As per the theme of this winter, a snowstorm will be threading a needle within a needle. If we couldn't get a significant event since mid Jan when the AO was negative, why should we get one now when basically everything is against us?

I guess the only thing is if mother nature has a sense of humor...

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