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Weekend "Storm" Discussion Part III, 2/18-2/19


stormtracker

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I almost hope the Euro goes even farther south. Not necessarily to screw Richmond, but if it goes farther south there will be absolutely no reason for me to check a weather model tomorrow, when I should be outside enjoying what looks to be a near 60 degree day.

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Euro's going north...it sure aint going south and it'll line up with the gfs. Dt will get rain.

DT just locked all his followers in Richmond area into expecting at least 6 inches of snow, cause storm would be arriving at sunset. Hard for me to say if he's right or wrong. I lived there for awhile, and that place is even harder to forecast then here. The elevation of Richmond is like 166 feet, about half of what it is at the National Cathedral in DC, not to mention farther south not far from multiple tidal (warmer) bodies of water. They cashed in though well in 2010 when we did, so it's possible.

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DT just locked all his followers in Richmond area into expecting at least 6 inches of snow, cause storm would be arriving at sunset. Hard for me to say if he's right or wrong. I lived there for awhile, and that place is even harder to forecast then here. The elevation of Richmond is like 166 feet, about half of what it is at the National Cathedral in DC, not to mention farther south not far from multiple tidal (warmer) bodies of water. They cashed in though well in 2010 when we did, so it's possible.

He hasn't really locked anyone into 6"+ of snow...his most recent guess map had a general swath of 2-4" in the RIC area. You are correct about forecasting for this area...it is tough due to the lower elevation of the airport (~150') compared to my elevation 25-30 miles away (~300'). I don't see why, at least N & W of town, we can't overcome slightly warm 2m temps with the precip rates shown on the models. Our usually conservative NWSFO has me progged for 4"+ as of right now and ~3" for RIC proper. Historically, the r/s line generally sets up in the same spot with systems like this so we know what to expect. Large bust potential for sure.

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Although this storm will not affect my area, I have made snow map on my blog for folks that are interested here in the Mid-Atlantic thread.

I was thinking about making one too. However, there are so many problems with this storm now. Is it going north or south? How are the boundary layer issues on the east coast?

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I was thinking about making one too. However, there are so many problems with this storm now. Is it going north or south? How are the boundary layer issues on the east coast?

Indeed this is a big concern. Despite the south trends... For the area that it looks to affect the Most at this time... you have to consider the low level warmth now. Need precip rates to be pretty hard. Plus ratios will not be high at all. 10 to 1 at best.. maybe lower... plus initial moisture question? How much is lost there in the form of liquid if any now? : p

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You will henceforth be my only source of "what model x will do" predictions.

not a bad move on the euro.. comes in late up here. we need back into the .25" range tho prob for much to measure in grass. we might be able to get there.

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Would you mind giving a quick QPF breakdown? DCA/BWI/CHO/RIC?

my increments are .05, 1, .25, .5, 1 and im not 100% sure i have CHO or RIC eyeballed correct so they're more general..

BWI = .08?

DCA = .15?

CHO = .5+

RIC = .5+

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