earthlight Posted February 16, 2012 Author Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ensemble MSLP spaghetti's are out...the OP is on the very far south side of the spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Definitely a pretty good amount of northward spread on the SREFS: Good to again see the spread centered just off the Delmarva. Lots of north-leaning members. Hopefully the Euro ensembles continue being north of the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ensemble MSLP spaghetti's are out...the OP is on the very far south side of the spread. But the mean MSLP is very close to the op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 HPC has low confidence with their forecast for the weekend http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
riverrat Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 While it certainly appears that though there may be some sort of "trend" developing, there are actually numerous depictions of the 500mb level which are producing differentiating outcomes that seem to be the same. The northern stream is the killer(or hero) in this case, and with it being absolutely loaded with pieces of energy it would be hard to accept any given modeled solution at this point until that stream can be better sampled once some features start getting on land and closer in timespace. http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M http://mag.ncep.noaa...el=&imageSize=M The first glance at these maps may not look vastly different, however there are discernable differences between the GFS/NAM at 54 hours in regards to 500mb pattern. First on the GFS... It is sharper with a piece of energy spinning along the base of the polar vortex, this piece of energy may be what is forcing the first piece diving into Michigan to dive in further and essentially force the phase earlier(or at least partially). Also, the energy in the PAC NW is alot stronger at 54 then on the NAM, allowing it to pump up the ridge in the west ever so slightly more then on the NAM (however, on the GFS, the piece around the PV in addition to the PAC NW make for the ridge axis to be backed west by a couple hundred miles). On the NAM, the feature in the PAC NW is weaker, and the ridge axis is further east, since the ridge isnt as "pumped up" it appears as though the s/w coming into Michigan is not forced to dive as far south as on the GFS. These are miniscule differences in the 500mb pattern as we are talking about placements of features merely 50-200 miles at most apart on the models, however, the surface depictions downstream result in MUCH variance in possible outcomes. At this point, it is not wise to go against the trend of the entire winter which is to move that shortwave coming into Michigan along quicker, this in turn leads to a more NAM like solution. What is interesting about this though, is that the NAM(as well as others) are actually "trending" towards a stronger southern stream solution. This MAY indeed work out better for our area, as the confluence diminishes across the northeast with the passing of the energy, as well as raises the heights along the coast thus creating a more north track. As is right now on the models, the timing appears as if the northern stream is too fast for a phase, but slow enough that it sticks around to suppress the storm south. However, instead of monitoring surface depiction trends right now, I'd much more closely be watching the evolution of the northern stream, as well as the eventual strength of the southern stream. Excellent first post. Welcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 But the mean MSLP is very close to the op. Init errors would propagate to ensembles as well correct? Not saying the differences wouldn't be negligible..just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Euro ensemble MSLP spaghetti's are out...the OP is on the very far south side of the spread. That's what we need to hear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 That's what we need to hear. While there are many members north of operational, the actual mean is very close to the operational and no precip makes it to us. And on the spaghettis, there is a tight cluster barely north of the operational but they are stronger by a good amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 While there are many members north of operational, the actual mean is very close to the operational and no precip makes it to us. And on the spaghettis, there is a tight cluster barely north of the operational but they are stronger by a good amount. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Init errors would propagate to ensembles as well correct? Not saying the differences wouldn't be negligible..just curious The set of conditions I think would not effect the ensembles that much. I still don't know what GSP is referring to. I wonder what they think is whacky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't understand how there can be so many members north of the operational, and the OP is on the very south side of the spread, yet the mean is very close to the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I don't understand how there can be so many members north of the operational, and the OP is on the very south side of the spread, yet the mean is very close to the OP. On the spaghettis, there is a very tight cluster very close to where the op is. They are stronger generally then the op. There are a bunch of members north but the tightest cluster is close to op. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 On the spaghettis, there is a very tight cluster very close to where the op is. They are stronger generally then the op. There are a bunch of members north but the tightest cluster is close to op. Oh okay, that makes more sense. Thanks. Still a positive development I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The set of conditions I think would not effect the ensembles that much. I still don't know what GSP is referring to. I wonder what they think is whacky. I just saw this over at HPC: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdhmd THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE LOW'S TRACK POSSIBLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION AND INTERACTIONS OF 3 SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TO ITS NORTH. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MID-LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS FIELDS FROM THE GFS ALIGNING BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF...WHICH APPEAR WORST. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE CANADIAN PRODUCES AN OUTLIER SOLUTION CROSSING THE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting find bluewave. I guess this supports what GSP was saying. I just saw this over at HPC: http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE LOW'S TRACK POSSIBLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION AND INTERACTIONS OF 3 SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TO ITS NORTH. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MID-LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS FIELDS FROM THE GFS ALIGNING BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF...WHICH APPEAR WORST. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE CANADIAN PRODUCES AN OUTLIER SOLUTION CROSSING THE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 interesting find bluewave. I guess this supports what GSP was saying. Maybe that's why there is some spread in the Euro ensembles. I would think that tonight's Euro initialization should be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Sounds like its the northern stream energy so until its properly sampled it could be after that point. Im not sure why there are people so worried why the euro ens mean is close to the op. Its a mean. There is spread and looks like its spread more north than south. Some of the solutions are weaker and broader to the south adding to the mean solution. Maybe that's why there is some spread in the Euro ensembles. I would think that tonight's Euro initialization should be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bass28 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thus nam run us taking forever.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Joe4alb Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Thus nam run us taking forever.... A watched model never updates anyway.... southern stream seems a bit slower through 36 but other than that on par with 12z from what I can see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 A watched model never updates anyway.... southern stream seems a bit slower through 36 but other than that on par with 12z from what I can see Southern stream is a tick slower, but the main difference that I'm seeing is that the northern stream energy is slower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Northern stream continues to run slower on the 18z NAM at hour 39 than the 12z NAM at hour 45 at 500 mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 It might appear more amplified, but that's most likely because the northern stream is a bit slower. Blah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just remember the Nam is awful outside 36 hours and in these off runs it performs even worse. The gfs is a good tool right now based on HPC's statement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Just remember the Nam is awful outside 36 hours and in these off runs it performs even worse. The gfs is a good tool right now based on HPC's statement. Off-hour runs are not worse anymore (I know this is for the GFS but I'm sure the NAM is the same). And awful outside 36h? A little harsh... Any data to back that up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 The 18z NAM is even less impressive with the storm at hour 51 than the 12z NAM was at 57.The 18z NAM has an open 1008 mb low while the 12z NAM had a closed 1004 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Off-hour runs are not worse anymore (I know this is for the GFS but I'm sure the NAM is the same). http://www.americanw...ost__p__1315231 And awful outside 36h? A little harsh... Any data to back that up? Any Met would tell you it is, maybe 48 hours out at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SBUWX23 Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I see a 1005 mb low at 54 hr. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/nam/18znam500mbHGHTNA054.gif The 18z NAM is even less impressive with the storm at hour 51 than the 12z NAM was at 57.The 18z NAM has an open 1008 mb low while the 12z NAM had a closed 1004 mb low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 I just saw this over at HPC: http://www.hpc.ncep....php?disc=pmdhmd THE SOLUTION SPREAD IS QUITE SUBSTANTIAL FROM SATURDAY ONWARD...WITH THE LOW'S TRACK POSSIBLY DEPENDENT UPON THE EVOLUTION AND INTERACTIONS OF 3 SEPARATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING TO ITS NORTH. MODEL INITIALIZATION OF THESE SYSTEMS IS A CONCERN...PARTICULARLY THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ENTERING BRITISH COLUMBIA...WITH MID-LEVEL DIAGNOSTICS FIELDS FROM THE GFS ALIGNING BEST WITH THE STRUCTURE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO THE NAM AND ECMWF...WHICH APPEAR WORST. AMONG THE REMAINING SOLUTIONS...THE CANADIAN PRODUCES AN OUTLIER SOLUTION CROSSING THE yea.. that was exactly what I was mentioning a bit earlier. I had counted 3 separate shortwaves that essentially move through our area leading up to this event. Last year, in cases where we had energy driving down southeastward from Canada, I recall the strength of these systems being underestimated by the models often times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 if it's any consilation.. that third shortwave before the event is pretty vigurous per the NAM.. If we miss the big event, we might have some random flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted February 16, 2012 Share Posted February 16, 2012 Tons of confluence up north. This is going OTS on the 18z NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.