hooralph Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 So they are backpedaling a bit? Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Denver Colorado 1243 PM MST Wednesday Feb 1 2012 Update...model trends have a bit more elongation to the upper low resulting in less focus to the upcoming winter storm...at least across the back side of the low over our area. This results in less snow and perhaps less wind. More model fluctuations yet to come...current plan is to not change much and hang on to our Winter Storm Watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
prinsburg_wx Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTH PLATTE NE 318 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012 ...WINTER STORM POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY... .A STRONG STORM SYSTEM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...THE STORM TRACK WOULD INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN EXCESS OF 6 INCHES FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. IN ADDITION...WINDY CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT COULD CAUSE REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT STORM TRACK...WHICH COULD LEAD TO CHANGES IN THE FORECAST SNOWFALL. IN ADDITION...WARM AIR AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM COULD CAUSE SOME OF THE PRECIPITATION TO FALL AS RAIN RATHER THAN SNOW...WHICH WOULD ALSO IMPACT TOTAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. CURRENTLY THE HEAVIEST SNOW LOOKS TO FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM CHAPPELL TO BARTLETT. NEZ027>029-037-038-056>059-069>071-021000- /O.NEW.KLBF.WS.A.0001.120203T0600Z-120204T1800Z/ LOUP-GARFIELD-WHEELER-LOGAN-CUSTER-DEUEL-KEITH-PERKINS-LINCOLN- CHASE-HAYES-FRONTIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...TAYLOR...BURWELL...BARTLETT... STAPLETON...BROKEN BOW...CHAPPELL...BIG SPRINGS...OGALLALA... GRANT...NORTH PLATTE...IMPERIAL...HAYES CENTER...CURTIS...EUSTIS 318 PM CST WED FEB 1 2012 /218 PM MST WED FEB 1 2012/ ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTH PLATTE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN FALLING ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO THE DAY SATURDAY. THE PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN FALLING AS RAIN THEN SWITCH OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...LOCATIONS THAT ARE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR GREATER WILL BE FROM SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA. THE LOCATION OF THE HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS MAY CHANGE IF THE STORM TRACK DIFFERS FROM THE CURRENT PROJECTIONS. * WIND...NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD CAUSE VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM...INCLUDING ICY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 1, 2012 Share Posted February 1, 2012 Well, just for laughs, from the HPC (latest): This goes along with a 60-70% chance of a foot for Denver metro. I know 1823Z is a little old though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Hm? Not having easy access to models or time to look at them today. Any agreement or are we still reaching for the Tums? Still all over. Models having sensitivity issues regarding the strength of the lead upper anomaly and just how quickly the mid level lows closes off. Also throw in issues with convective activity across TX/OK as this beast gets going...that can have a major influence on the development of low level PV anomalies and LHR bulls-eyes...in other words it can have a major effect on synoptic development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I really wanted to see a 12" storm this weekend. But I'd also like to be home for the Super Bowl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So they are backpedaling a bit? Area forecast discussion National Weather Service Denver Colorado 1243 PM MST Wednesday Feb 1 2012 Update...model trends have a bit more elongation to the upper low resulting in less focus to the upcoming winter storm...at least across the back side of the low over our area. This results in less snow and perhaps less wind. More model fluctuations yet to come...current plan is to not change much and hang on to our Winter Storm Watch. I think there will still be winter storm conditions by the end of this event. May not be the apocalyptic 30+" the CMC had earlier, but favored regions will see some high totals possibly in excess of 1-2 feet near the Palmer Divide. I can say one thing...with the way the mid level flow varies as this storm develops, there are going to be some crazy topographically enhanced snow variations across the Front Range. Incredibly difficult area to forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I think there will still be winter storm conditions by the end of this event. May not be the apocalyptic 30+" the CMC had earlier, but favored regions will see some high totals possibly in excess of 1-2 feet near the Palmer Divide. I can say one thing...with the way the mid level flow varies as this storm develops, there are going to be some crazy topographically enhanced snow variations across the Front Range. Incredibly difficult area to forecast. Snowstorm climatology out here is utterly foreign to me. I'm lost reading the AFD's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Snowstorm climatology out here is utterly foreign to me. I'm lost reading the AFD's. It is so hard because the Front Range needs some sort of component of flow from either the N with arctic fronts or the east with cutoff lows. This has the potential to be a big daddy, but it all hinges on the speed of which the low closes off in the mid levels since that will influence the easterly flow. Higher level deformation banding will also play a role. Cold air damming here is not impressive, but there is still good easterly trajectories even in the weakest guidance. Should have a nice snowstorm out there. Where exactly are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I really wanted to see a 12" storm this weekend. But I'd also like to be home for the Super Bowl. There are Pats fans around here if you look. The Post had an article about a pub in LoDo that is the place to be, if you are down there. Can't think of the name offhand. I can't talk football around here these days without getting into trouble.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 oZ NAM went ballistic. If that occurred the Palmer Divide would see 35" and we would see 15+. Models are just having massive issues with that lead anomaly and how quickly it deepens. NAM completely bombs it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
runupthescore Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 1) Driving to/from DIA. Driving Pena Blvd during a snowstorm can be scary, esp if there's any wind. Your flight may be unaffected, but you'll find it difficult or impossible to actually get to the airport to catch your flight. 2) Flight operations are open, but extremely delayed. During the 12/22 snowstorm, we sat on the tarmac waiting to be de-iced/takeoff for 2.5 hours. This means if you have connections (like I did) you might miss them. As long as we're here, what about getting into Denver? My wife is flying out from PA (through Charlotte, annoying enough) on Friday night. She's supposed to arrive around 8pm MT, then drive with her friend out to Fairplay. I understand they're supposed to get less snow out that way, but it also includes going into the mountains south and west of Denver. Seems like a bad, bad idea to me, and I have a feeling she's going to be stranded in Charlotte. We used to live out there, and survived the December '06 blizzard (here's some ). That one ruined our plans to come back here for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Yeeehaw? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 oZ NAM went ballistic. If that occurred the Palmer Divide would see 35" and we would see 15+. Models are just having massive issues with that lead anomaly and how quickly it deepens. NAM completely bombs it out. i just looked at that myself after cantore tweeted about the latest NAM run. momma nature must be trying to take Francine's place as the "queen of extreme" into NE Colorado and the nebraska panhandle. even North Platte, Broken Bow, and eventually Omaha, Grand Island, and Des Moines may have a nasty situation out of this. time to wait for the gfs and the canadian regional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 B_I and Cory about to get annihilated!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 So, looks like GFS holds serve with about 0.6" QPF around metro Denver while the NAM is upwards of 1.5". Think they will agree by the time the storm is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 0z RGEM at 48...slower than the NAM That 500 plot is hot. I did notice the RGEM blows up significant DMC which alters the development of the defo band as well as the surface low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 B_I and Cory about to get annihilated!!! I hope so. This winter has been a joke. Cory doesn't sound as excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 so it appears the HPC forecast that denver gets about 20 inches or so and surrounding areas are probably good for 24-30 lollies beyond SE WY and ext NW kansas and SW and S Central nebraska getting a solid warning event ...seems there is still a good deal to be decided in the next 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonbo Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Blizzard Watches and Warnings I see are up now. Winter Storm Watches extending to Des Moines. Though it seems like we're on the fringe of getting hit harder. Though I'm still not complaining about potentially 4-7 inches at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 As long as we're here, what about getting into Denver? My wife is flying out from PA (through Charlotte, annoying enough) on Friday night. She's supposed to arrive around 8pm MT, then drive with her friend out to Fairplay. I understand they're supposed to get less snow out that way, but it also includes going into the mountains south and west of Denver. Seems like a bad, bad idea to me, and I have a feeling she's going to be stranded in Charlotte. We used to live out there, and survived the December '06 blizzard (here's some ). That one ruined our plans to come back here for Christmas. Tough prospect. Friday PM might have slightly better weather but there will be a lot on the ground already. The last part of her drive (after Kenosha Pass) will be easier, if she can get that far! Been stuck in Charlotte before... good possibility. At least people are nice there and hotel rooms are fairly cheap. Good luck to your wife! OTOH, the airlines have a travel waiver in place for Denver so if there is a spare seat Sat/Sun she might do better there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hooralph Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 I gotta get the hell out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 EURO is like 1.30" QPF.....(from what I could count) So, looks like GFS holds serve with about 0.6" QPF around metro Denver while the NAM is upwards of 1.5". Think they will agree by the time the storm is over? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ucbedge Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 The mountains west of Denver are supposed to get alot less than the plains/foothills. So I imagine the worst part of the drive will be Pena Blvd and then up 285. Hopefully the worst is over by Friday night. But if it's not, I'd definitely have a back-up plan (i.e. hotel plans). My neighborhood is under a Blizzard Warning. It's not about as much about the snow as it is about the wind. Last time we were under a Blizzard Warning, I couldnt make it out of the neighborhood because the visibility was so poor. They also dont hesitate to shut down the freeways if it gets bad. They shut down I25 quite regularly near my home during storms like this. If you have a back-up plan, you'll be fine. Or perhaps have her flight moved to Saturday? Good luck! As long as we're here, what about getting into Denver? My wife is flying out from PA (through Charlotte, annoying enough) on Friday night. She's supposed to arrive around 8pm MT, then drive with her friend out to Fairplay. I understand they're supposed to get less snow out that way, but it also includes going into the mountains south and west of Denver. Seems like a bad, bad idea to me, and I have a feeling she's going to be stranded in Charlotte. We used to live out there, and survived the December '06 blizzard (here's some ). That one ruined our plans to come back here for Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 NWS Denver Discussion. I like how they end it. SHORT TERM...INGREDIENTS FOR THE HEAVIEST SNOW STORM OF THIS SNOW SEASON WILL CONTINUE COMING TOGETHER TODAY WITH SNOW DEVELOPING ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING. THE VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH THAT HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE WESTERN U.S. FOR THE LAST DAY AND A HALF IS NOW APPROACHING THE FOUR CORNERS AND THE POTENTIAL VORTICITY CHARTS ARE NOW SHOWING THE HOOK SIGNATURE THAT PORTENDS THE FORMATION OF A CLOSED UPPER CIRCULATION. THE UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE MOVING OVER THE NORTHERN NEW MEXICO BORDER TODAY WITH ALL MODELS PRETTY CONSISTENT IN PLACING THE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO BY 18Z FRIDAY. LOTS OF SYNOPTIC SCALE VERTICAL FORCING WILL ACCOMPANY THIS UPPER LOW ALONG WITH HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE. RADARS OVER WESTERN COLORADO AND NEW MEXICO ARE SHOWING AREAS OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM. EASTERN COLORADO SHOULD CONTINUE SEEING INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH TODAY AS THE SYSTEM INTENSIFIES. MSAS SURFACE PRESSURE CHARTS ARE SHOWING A SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE WHICH WILL CONTINUE DEEPENING THROUGH TODAY. THIS WILL INDUCE NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO BY THIS AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD ONTO THE EASTERN COLORADO PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME OF THIS MAY BEGIN AS RAIN...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...BASED ON MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS. BY TONIGHT...THE STORM SHOULD BE REACHING ITS MATURE STAGE WITH STRONG Q-G FORCING CENTERED OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND THE DEEPENING SURFACE LOW TIGHTENING THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. DEEP NORTHEASTERLY WINDS...UP TO 500 MB WITH SPEEDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS...WILL COVER THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. WE MAY SEE THE FORMATION OF A BARRIER JET ALONG THE FOOTHILLS LATER TONIGHT AS WELL AS SOME ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIPITATION FROM A TROWAL ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW. MODEL QPF FIELDS HAVE BEEN GENERATING VERY HEALTHY AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL...WITH STORM TOTAL SNOWS IN EXCESS OF 10 INCHES CERTAINLY POSSIBLE. THE HEAVY SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND I-25 CORRIDOR WARRANTS THE ISSUANCE OF A WINTER STORM WARNING... WHILE THE COMBINATION OF HEAVY SNOW AND INCREASING WINDS AFTER 06Z ON THE EASTERN PLAINS JUSTIFIES A BLIZZARD WARNING. SNOWFALL OVER THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD NOT BE AS HEAVY AS OVER THE PLAINS...BUT WILL STILL BE ENOUGH FOR A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. TRAVEL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA MAY WELL BE VERY DIFFICULT ON FRIDAY BECAUSE OF THE EXPECTED SNOW AMOUNTS. HAPPY GROUNDHOGS DAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 Wooo hooooooooo! Looks like snow should be heavy, at least for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 the euro did cave to gfs with the 5H for sunday thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 12z ECMWF DEN: THU 18Z 02-FEB 3.4 2.9 1017 45 59 0.01 556 542 FRI 00Z 03-FEB 2.7 3.6 1015 61 98 0.02 554 542 FRI 06Z 03-FEB -0.4 0.7 1019 99 100 0.40 554 539 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -3.0 -2.4 1026 88 99 0.36 555 534 FRI 18Z 03-FEB -3.6 -3.2 1030 88 100 0.21 556 532 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -3.1 -2.5 1030 86 100 0.15 556 532 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -3.5 -3.0 1033 91 100 0.14 557 531 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -4.1 -3.7 1035 94 99 0.13 558 531 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -4.0 -4.3 1038 91 96 0.04 561 531 GLD: FRI 06Z 03-FEB 0.8 1.0 1019 90 94 0.11 556 541 FRI 12Z 03-FEB -0.1 -1.7 1021 98 97 0.23 556 539 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 0.3 -2.8 1023 94 87 0.07 556 537 SAT 00Z 04-FEB -0.2 -3.1 1024 95 95 0.05 555 536 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -0.9 -3.8 1028 96 98 0.10 557 534 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -1.6 -4.7 1031 92 98 0.09 558 533 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -1.5 -4.9 1035 81 96 0.02 560 532 LBF: FRI 12Z 03-FEB 0.2 -1.1 1024 94 100 0.07 557 538 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 0.1 -2.3 1026 96 100 0.40 556 536 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 0.0 -2.5 1026 96 99 0.19 557 536 SAT 06Z 04-FEB -0.8 -3.4 1029 89 98 0.10 557 534 SAT 12Z 04-FEB -2.3 -3.4 1032 89 82 0.05 558 533 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -2.1 -3.3 1035 89 69 0.02 560 532 HSI: FRI 06Z 03-FEB 2.8 1.6 1022 84 80 0.07 561 542 FRI 12Z 03-FEB 2.9 0.2 1022 94 100 0.31 561 543 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 3.3 -0.9 1022 95 86 0.12 560 542 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 3.3 -2.5 1022 93 83 0.09 558 541 SAT 06Z 04-FEB 1.3 -2.7 1023 99 100 0.36 556 537 SAT 12Z 04-FEB 0.2 -3.2 1026 95 100 0.45 555 534 SAT 18Z 04-FEB -0.6 -3.9 1031 90 98 0.18 558 533 SUN 00Z 05-FEB -0.2 -3.7 1032 79 98 0.01 560 534 OMA: FRI 12Z 03-FEB 4.7 2.3 1024 83 93 0.01 562 543 FRI 18Z 03-FEB 6.6 0.1 1025 82 98 0.05 564 544 SAT 00Z 04-FEB 5.8 -0.8 1024 84 94 0.04 562 542 SAT 06Z 04-FEB 4.2 -1.6 1023 92 100 0.19 560 542 SAT 12Z 04-FEB 1.2 -2.4 1025 96 100 0.33 556 537 SAT 18Z 04-FEB 2.0 -3.7 1029 80 100 0.15 557 534 SUN 00Z 05-FEB 3.9 -2.8 1029 54 61 0.01 559 536 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18Z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mayjawintastawm Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 18Z NAM Dang! Shovel, rinse, repeat every 3 hours starting around 10 PM tonight... till my arms fall off... I'll take it since it's on a Friday and I already converted all my meetings to conference calls.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted February 2, 2012 Share Posted February 2, 2012 This storm is crazy hard to forecast. I will say latest trends suggest the upper PV may eject as one piece of energy and tank out across SE CO and the high plains. This could have significant implications. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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