Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Problem is we're warm here. Saving sleepless nights for later in the week...be working until 1amish tonight....next weekend going to get nothing done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Lol...co-located mu-cape of like 280/tt of 63/LI 0/SI 0 I don't get that in July. MCV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Boston-winter08 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 LOL i was going to post this earlier, but thought better of it later....what a fookin joke, absolutely unbelievable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Phil do you think this comes together down here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I posted more of this in the other thread, but he mentions tonight, so here goes. From Tim Kelly on NECN.com " But the fact that this chill exists in Alaska, we have to be on guard for an Extreme Arctic Attack here in New England right through the Spring Equinox. Even a little release of this arctic chills sets up potential wintry weather blasts at least once a week for us. A Little upper level spin is producing thunder snow in the Northeast tonight, this 'minor' event is a tiny example of what can happen." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Snowfall wise I'd rather be on the northern axis of the t-bone for this event. It should be some nice fluff for N VT/NH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Snowfall wise I'd rather be on the northern axis of the t-bone for this event. It should be some nice fluff for N VT/NH. Intensity wise I would rather be in Phil's hood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Just woke up from a nap...I know Sam Already posted this but this is certainly worth posting again...you just don't see lapse rates like this here very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wiz, how was it last Feb 18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Wiz, how was it last Feb 18? Probably 7-7.5 C/KM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Some nice WAA occurring at 850mb which could help to add some some elevated instability along with some increase in moisture as dewpoints are increasing slowly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 squall went to crap oh well at least ill get sleep tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 squall went to crap oh well at least ill get sleep tonight It was supposed to, then it's supposed to advect moisture off the Atlantic as it progresses eastward. Probably not worth staying up for given the uncertainty with these events. But it's the type of event you'd kick yourself if things did come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I know it was supposed to but i still had hope lol I think the cape has a good chance but anywhere else i just dont see it . It was supposed to, then it's supposed to advect moisture off the Atlantic as it progresses eastward. Probably not worth staying up for given the uncertainty with these events. But it's the type of event you'd kick yourself if things did come together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Check out this inverted-V sounding with EML over IAD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I know it was supposed to but i still had hope lol I think the cape has a good chance but anywhere else i just dont see it . I used to hope too, seen to many a squal line dry up as soon as it hits the HV in New York. If not there then on the east side of the Green Mountain spine. Yeah capecodweather and messenger have better shots than us, but things are very unstable which leads to uncertainty. I'll be happy if I wake up to a quarter or half inch but not expecting more than a few snowflakes on the roof of the car that partially evaporate and end up looking like frost in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I used to hope too, seen to many a squal line dry up as soon as it hits the HV in New York. If not there then on the east side of the Green Mountain spine. Yeah capecodweather and messenger have better shots than us, but things are very unstable which leads to uncertainty. I'll be happy if I wake up to a quarter or half inch but not expecting more than a few snowflakes on the roof of the car that partially evaporate and end up looking like frost in the morning. I'm not expecting much of anything down here, hope it comes together for Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hoping to eek out some comma head action here on the maine coast before this thing exits stage right. We'll have to see how fast she wants to go to town. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 I still think we should see some intensification or redevelopment of the squall line as it nears eastern MA. NAM continues to indicate the development of some weak surfaced-based instability out bear the Cape as low-level moisture/WAA increases. Convergence does increase as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 I'm not expecting much of anything down here, hope it comes together for Phil. I didn't necessarily mean I expected you to get much, just thought you two have a better chance than most. His chances being a bit better than yours. One of the rare times he has an advantage being on the cape. Good luck anyways, hopefully when all is said and done we'll have forgotten this event due to a nice couple week period that saved winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Some very weak sfc frontogenesis and llvl frontogenesis beginning to setup across parts of the region...it's nothing too impressive but it really doesn't have to be, especially with the expected increase in llvl moisture over the course of the next several hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Per mesoanalysis there is a pocket of 100 J/KG of SBcape just south of Long Island along with 100 J/KG of MUcape and LI values down to about +1C to +2C...seems spot on and if models are correct this area will expand into portions of southern New England over the next few hours. Line of snow squalls continues to work towards the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Low level lapse rates still between 7.5-8.5 C/KM...pretty impressive for this time of night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Batch of precip just fired south of CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Gray updated recently im now in the hwo for 1-3 inches. They said they upped amounts considerably. Didn't expect to see that kind of a change. Went from 50% chance of snsh to 1-3 inches. Well see, im sure im closer to the 1 inch being in the southern part of their forecast area though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Pretty impressive burst of WAA at 925mb across eastern CT/RI and into SE MA...really helping to keep those steep llvl lapse rates in place as well as leading to some weak sfc instability. Not really a shocker to see that line develop where it did. Still with a sw flow here in the low levels across this area so this should enhance moisture a bit as well as create some added convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Batch of precip just fired south of CT Yep...the spc wrf and hrrr have been handling this pretty well. convection firing near MTP. Look for lightning toward the cape and islands in the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow Bow Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Pretty impressive burst of WAA at 925mb across eastern CT/RI and into SE MA...really helping to keep those steep llvl lapse rates in place as well as leading to some weak sfc instability. Not really a shocker to see that line develop where it did. Still with a sw flow here in the low levels across this area so this should enhance moisture a bit as well as create some added convergence. Hope you see something down there, have a few flurries falling that just started but looks like it wont get heavy for a while if it does at all up here. The precipitation was expanding over sne last time I checked so that's always a good sign as the opposite is usually the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Yep...the spc wrf and hrrr have been handling this pretty well. convection firing near MTP. Look for lightning toward the cape and islands in the next few hours. Pretty sweet when the models work out With probably anywhere from 100-300 J/KG of Cape along with LI values down slightly below zero there should be a period of fun somewhere in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 30, 2012 Author Share Posted January 30, 2012 Hope you see something down there, have a few flurries falling that just started but looks like it wont get heavy for a while if it does at all up here. The precipitation was expanding over snh last time I checked so that's always a good sign as the opposite us usually the case. It would be pretty sweet to see something here although I may be just a tad too west...do have to watch the main batch those to the northwest. Everything may really explode more to my east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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