CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The mets aren't posting which is never a good sign...neither is Zac. I want to know what happened to the big EURO storm which was forecast for about 8 days from now? Is anything like it still there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The mets aren't posting which is never a good sign...neither is Zac. I want to know what happened to the big EURO storm which was forecast for about 8 days from now? Is anything like it still there? The same thing that has happened to every storm that has been forecast on the models 5+ days out. Nothing because it doesn't exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yeah, but light snow into 37* 2m temps is not even a storm really. I think we'll get at least a strong advisory snow before the month is over. right....I don't think anyone was expecting anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The mets aren't posting which is never a good sign...neither is Zac. I want to know what happened to the big EURO storm which was forecast for about 8 days from now? Is anything like it still there? The same thing that has happened to every storm that has been forecast on the models 5+ days out. Nothing because it doesn't exist. I think that was from something called the "control run" of the Euro....which is the Desperation Tool Du Jour of the freaking out weenie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Agreed....I guess I was off base with 2m temps. I thought he was talking like light snowfall as in an inch or two. Not light snowfall as in wet ground with a light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Agreed....I guess I was off base with 2m temps. I thought he was talking like light snowfall as in an inch or two. Not light snowfall as in wet ground with a light snow. yeah....not much at all. I don't know why I look at models every run....this year they've swung wildly and this upcoming pattern is so active so they will keep changing. I guess entertainment of some sort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 The mets aren't posting which is never a good sign...neither is Zac. I want to know what happened to the big EURO storm which was forecast for about 8 days from now? Is anything like it still there? Got a concussion yesterday. Will be off for a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Eastern...come rescue us from the dark lol. Edit: I see you had a concussion...hope you have a speedy recovery Zac! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Got a concussion yesterday. Will be off for a few days. 1st- i hope you're ok 2nd- there has got to be a good story behind this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 1st- i hope you're ok 2nd- there has got to be a good story behind this? Hockey injury. Got elbowed in the head, which smashed into the glass. Sorry not real interesting. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hockey injury. Got elbowed in the head, which smashed into the glass. Sorry not real interesting. lol No helmet? Ice or Street Hockey? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 No helmet? Ice or Street Hockey? Ice hockey. And yes, helmet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ice hockey. And yes, helmet. hard hit then. Be well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 hard hit then. Be well! Yup. I am the next Crosby.. well I hope not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yup. I am the next Crosby.. well I hope not. Hope you get well soon, Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Got a concussion yesterday. Will be off for a few days. Zak...Yikes! You cannot seem to catch a break when it comes to your health. Now you must be extra extra careful regarding the potential of a future concussion. I'll tell you more about why later when we get together. Take care!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Dang man, had my fair share playing indoor roller hockey..had to get out. Concussions are not fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Ya it sucks. Thanks all. Will be chatting again soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Agreed....I guess I was off base with 2m temps. I thought he was talking like light snowfall as in an inch or two. Not light snowfall as in wet ground with a light snow. CTP's still calling for an inch or two over the mountains, and up to an inch in the LSV, although they do mention much of it will melt. Don't see why we should completely write this off-there could be something on the ground for some of us, even if it's gone in 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 One last thing. As I mentioned before end of Feb was my shot at a big storm and models starting to grand that way. Maybe just maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yup. I am the next Crosby.. well I hope not. So you have a vagina, too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 So you have a vagina, too? :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Storm is there on the 12z Euro. Downstream setup blows dick, so it escapes OTS after laying some deep South snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hey...18z nam trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat for thursday for us now with a secondary low forming. Not sure what that means for snow potential but it beats the primary-only through the lakes scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Yup. I am the next Crosby.. well I hope not. :lmao: :lmao: :lmao: So you have a vagina, too? You see, when I read that I thought, how silly, Zack....... You don't dominate the Flyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hey...18z nam trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat for thursday for us now with a secondary low forming. Not sure what that means for snow potential but it beats the primary-only through the lakes scenario. GFS does the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 13, 2012 Author Share Posted February 13, 2012 Hey...18z nam trying to pull a rabbit out of a hat for thursday for us now with a secondary low forming. Not sure what that means for snow potential but it beats the primary-only through the lakes scenario. It does kinda pop a very weak low offshore..but it'd be too late to make much of a difference. Main influence would still be the primary going nw of the area. One thing i did notice was the NAM was a bit chillier, making for a possible wet snowfall for the north-central/northeast. Those finer details will likely get more honed in the next couple days, but barring a major track shift (say somehow forcing the low under PA instead of to Erie)... it's a pretty unfavorable setup without some decent cold in place. To answer your earlier question about the Euro showing a big storm near the D8 range.. that showed up a couple days ago on the Euro control run, which is from what I can gather...an operational run somehow based off of the Euro ensembles (but not an ensemble mean). Not sure of it's track record or really how it incorporates ensemble data, I did see Will (orh_wxman) comment it on being a worse euro op fwiw. But to cut to the chase, that run ran a gulf bomb inside thru eastern NC to sub 980 on top of Ocean City, MD before fading SE of the benchmark. It was a run that smacked all of PA but particularly the SE 1/4 of PA especially good. So yea... thats why the control run has become all the rage in the last day or so. Of course it disappeared the next run and I don't believe it has fully showed back up. HOWEVER, that's not to dispel the potential around that timeframe (Feb 19ish). What is evident is that models do have a gulf wave.. The GFS of course keeps it squashed while the Canadian fades a better but still fairly weak low off the SC/NC coast. The Euro was the most wound up and closest call today getting a 996 low to just off the coast of Nags Head. Snuck some light precip into some of PA but ultimately wasn't enough. For anyone interested the Euro control was very similar to the normal Euro op. We're going to need a good phase to make a storm out of this, which is certainly achieveable in the pattern going forward..but phasing a good storm hasn't been this winters forte. But given the timeframe and typical trends, I don't mind seeing a gulf storm too far southeast right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You see, when I read that I thought, how silly, Zack....... You don't dominate the Flyers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 You see, when I read that I thought, how silly, Zack....... You don't dominate the Flyers. You always get motivated to play the really good teams... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSTWX Posted February 13, 2012 Share Posted February 13, 2012 It does kinda pop a very weak low offshore..but it'd be too late to make much of a difference. Main influence would still be the primary going nw of the area. One thing i did notice was the NAM was a bit chillier, making for a possible wet snowfall for the north-central/northeast. Those finer details will likely get more honed in the next couple days, but barring a major track shift (say somehow forcing the low under PA instead of to Erie)... it's a pretty unfavorable setup without some decent cold in place. To answer your earlier question about the Euro showing a big storm near the D8 range.. that showed up a couple days ago on the Euro control run, which is from what I can gather...an operational run somehow based off of the Euro ensembles (but not an ensemble mean). Not sure of it's track record or really how it incorporates ensemble data, I did see Will (orh_wxman) comment it on being a worse euro op fwiw. But to cut to the chase, that run ran a gulf bomb inside thru eastern NC to sub 980 on top of Ocean City, MD before fading SE of the benchmark. It was a run that smacked all of PA but particularly the SE 1/4 of PA especially good. So yea... thats why the control run has become all the rage in the last day or so. Of course it disappeared the next run and I don't believe it has fully showed back up. HOWEVER, that's not to dispel the potential around that timeframe (Feb 19ish). What is evident is that models do have a gulf wave.. The GFS of course keeps it squashed while the Canadian fades a better but still fairly weak low off the SC/NC coast. The Euro was the most wound up and closest call today getting a 996 low to just off the coast of Nags Head. Snuck some light precip into some of PA but ultimately wasn't enough. For anyone interested the Euro control was very similar to the normal Euro op. We're going to need a good phase to make a storm out of this, which is certainly achieveable in the pattern going forward..but phasing a good storm hasn't been this winters forte. But given the timeframe and typical trends, I don't mind seeing a gulf storm too far southeast right now. Indeed. A gulf storm moving off the carolina coast 6 days out is not a bad thing to have at this point. The NAO is not in a phase that would completely squash this thing, so fellow weenies out there need to chill and watch things unfold over the next 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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