MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Starting a new thread. Storm threat lurking late week with the mid range 12z Euro true to form showing a big snowstorm, 12z GFS was meh and 18z is rain. And go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 This winter I'd go with either the meh or the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Anduril Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Continuing on about the meet comments from the last thread I'd love to come but Lewistown is about an hour away from here and getting a day or two off at work on weekends is rather difficult in retail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm ready for spring, to be honest. I haven't cared much about winter this year at all. I guess I'm kinda preparing for a move back to Texas, which probably happens in he next 3-5 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Me too...this winter has been horrendous. My as well be sunny and 65..instead of rain every other day and 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 This is the main problem with La Nina winters. The northern stream is so dominant and usually no interesting storms happen unless the southern jet is active, which it is not this year. You constantly get these s/w diving out of canada that either dig to far to the west due to the SE ridge or the occasional clipper that brings dusting events and unless you live near the lakes you will be miserable. Add insult to injury is when you do get the occasional ridge out west, with no -NAO to help with blocking, the trough that does form in the east is flat or positve tilted and can't phase in time to make for a somewhat interesting threat. Plus with the PV raging over Alaska, the Pacific air floods into the CONUS and with no Atlantic help travels all the way across the nation. Give me a El Nino anytime, at least you have an active southern jet to make thinks interesting when you do get the occasional phase with the northern jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 At least the Euro still shows a nice hit at 144-168hr on the 12Z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Continuing on about the meet comments from the last thread I'd love to come but Lewistown is about an hour away from here and getting a day or two off at work on weekends is rather difficult in retail just about 2hrs away from me according to google maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 This is the main problem with La Nina winters. The northern stream is so dominant and usually no interesting storms happen unless the southern jet is active, which it is not this year. You constantly get these s/w diving out of canada that either dig to far to the west due to the SE ridge or the occasional clipper that brings dusting events and unless you live near the lakes you will be miserable. Add insult to injury is when you do get the occasional ridge out west, with no -NAO to help with blocking, the trough that does form in the east is flat or positve tilted and can't phase in time to make for a somewhat interesting threat. Plus with the PV raging over Alaska, the Pacific air floods into the CONUS and with no Atlantic help travels all the way across the nation. Give me a El Nino anytime, at least you have an active southern jet to make thinks interesting when you do get the occasional phase with the northern jet. There's starting to look like a period coming up near mid Feb that may give the best opportunity of seeing a big storm or two with the MJO showing signs in the forecasts of at least making an attempt at a 7-8-1 run, or at least getting into phase 7 and 8. This would reintroduce a stronger southern stream and likely provide more active weather if not some shots at snowstorms. With the PNA looking to stay positive for now the key is going to be the NAO, which has failed all season to get negative. I've said before that in our region we don't necessarily need an established stronger -NAO to make storms happen, in fact northern Penn has been missed by storms the previous two winters because the blocking was too strong. A near neutral one would be ok especially with a +PNA, but I didn't like Fridays NAO forecast which sent it back into higher positive territory. We'll get a better picture eventually, but in the meantime this storm near the end of next week that was advertised as a nice snowstorm on the Euro has went from a weak wave of light snow in southern Penn at 12z, to a wave of rain at 18z, to nothing at all at 0z on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 There's starting to look like a period coming up near mid Feb that may give the best opportunity of seeing a big storm or two with the MJO showing signs in the forecasts of at least making an attempt at a 7-8-1 run, or at least getting into phase 7 and 8. This would reintroduce a stronger southern stream and likely provide more active weather if not some shots at snowstorms. With the PNA looking to stay positive for now the key is going to be the NAO, which has failed all season to get negative. I've said before that in our region we don't necessarily need an established stronger -NAO to make storms happen, in fact northern Penn has been missed by storms the previous two winters because the blocking was too strong. A near neutral one would be ok especially with a +PNA, but I didn't like Fridays NAO forecast which sent it back into higher positive territory. We'll get a better picture eventually, but in the meantime this storm near the end of next week that was advertised as a nice snowstorm on the Euro has went from a weak wave of light snow in southern Penn at 12z, to a wave of rain at 18z, to nothing at all at 0z on the GFS. Hopefully it goes through 8-1, as long as it doesn't go back through the circle of death and loop back through 4-5-6 I will be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I guess I'm kinda preparing for a move back to Texas, which probably happens in he next 3-5 years. Lucky you if you get to do it. I enjoyed my time in Texas, despite being chained to the truck at the T/A in both Baytown and New Braunfels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Grew up there mostly, family's all there, so it'll happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Grew up there mostly, family's all there, so it'll happen. what and leave Harrisburg? J/K well looks like a nice day on tap.I already split and stacked a cord of wood this morning...now heading to Lancaster to do a lil shopping with the family..enjoy the spring like day all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 NAO continues to look DOA. PNA going against climo on the OP's as they suggest huge +PNA the past few runs. That would be good for some cold/weak precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 NAO continues to look DOA. PNA going against climo on the OP's as they suggest huge +PNA the past few runs. That would be good for some cold/weak precip. There's this also: According to the Euro Weeklies we get a 7-10 day window prior to another torch. Roughly the Feb 5-15 period. Browse around the medium range forecast discussion on the main weather forum or the medium range threads on the Philly/Mid Atlantic subforums. There's a lot of enthusiasm for that period. -EPO and MJO FINALLY getting past 7 is good stuff also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 Also, this is an indication that while we may have some late snow chances (here and in NC PA you cannot count out 4+ snow events until mid-April): but also an indication we may have a lousy spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 28, 2012 Share Posted January 28, 2012 I love rain. :raining: :axe: :axe: Or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 28, 2012 Author Share Posted January 28, 2012 I'm going through a bit of an MJO phase haha. Today's GFS ensemble forecast really has a strong MJO pulse getting into phase 7 heading towards 8, some of the members go off the scale. Cautiously optimistic that some interesting times are coming later in February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 On that newest map MAG, it looks like the energy remains in octet 7, and looks to curl back down towards the circle of death. I really hope I'm wrong and continues towards 8, our winter depends on it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 0z starting to sniff out the potential late week event for us tonight with perhaps the best 2 weeks of winter wx we might hope to see this season, especially if you believe LC whose newsletter alluded to that scenario playing out during February. He especially likes the Feb 11 to 13 timeframe for a significant east coast event. At least it's something to be keeping a hopeful eye on in the near future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Is it spring yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 Is it spring yet? close. MSUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING HOURS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPS TO REBOUND WELL INTO THE 30S AND 40S. MODEL FCST MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE PUSHED TO MORE THAN 8C/KM WHILE T-TOTALS ARE MADE TO SURGE INTO THE MID 60S! THIS UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL ALLOW LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW SQUALLS TO DEVELOP IN ASSOC WITH APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND ALSO ALLOW STRONG SW WINDS TO MIX TO THE SFC WITH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS SUPPORTING 25-35KT GUSTS BY AFTN. 4KM NAM SUGGESTS A SQUALL LINE OF SORTS SWEEPING ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY. IMPLICATIONS ARE THAT WE COULD SEE SOME THUNDERY SQUALLS THAT COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED BRIEF WHITE-OUT CONDITIONS AND VERY POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE POTENTIAL OF A FLASH FREEZE IS THERE SUN AFTN/EVENING...WITH WET/SLUSHY ROAD SURFACES POSSIBLY ICING UP...AS TEMPS FALL BLW FREEZING OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WESTERN/CENTRAL MTNS. THE GREATEST THREAT WILL BE OVR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE W MTNS...WHERE A QUICK INCH OF SNOW APPEARS LIKELY. That should be pretty fun if it materializes later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 close. That should be pretty fun if it materializes later today NWS and AccuWeather believe it. I like these cold frontal squalls, they can put on quite a show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 NWS and AccuWeather believe it. I like these cold frontal squalls, they can put on quite a show. Yea it should happen, mid level lapses of 8ºC/km is insane. Would be a good show to hold us through throwing away the better part of another week before we try to make something out of this end of the week storm and then the potential winter rebound later in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Yea it should happen, mid level lapses of 8ºC/km is insane. Would be a good show to hold us through throwing away the better part of another week before we try to make something out of this end of the week storm and then the potential winter rebound later in Feb. Yeah, these events are fun. If we get it, hopefully people aren't spending too much time fretting over winter that they miss it (this actually has happened on WWBB/Easternuswx, people posting about winter sucking and missed a frontal squall, lol). It's good to see such widespread agreement on the Feb 5-15 period having potential. Lots of you red-taggers are on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 Looks like we could see a significant impact snow event (despite sub-advisory/relatively low snow amounts). We're going to destabilize fairly quickly in the next few hours and into the afternoon. LI looks to go negative with total totals around 65! Lapse rates are really impressive. The NAM and Hi-Res models develop a nice looking squall line! With as much instability that is progged, could see some thundersnow coupled with some gusty winds. No doubt if this pans out as modeled we're going to see quite a bit of accidents from drivers being caught off guard with pretty low visibility/slick roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 gotta love bow echoes and snow. Zac/easternuswx must not have seen this yet, this is right up his alley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2012 Author Share Posted January 29, 2012 We couldn't buy that impressive of a squall line to roll through central PA in the summertime. I said a few days ago this winter needs to go hard or go home in Feb/Mar, it needs to start by delivering the first line of snow squalls ever to warrant a severe thunderstorm warning haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 We couldn't buy that impressive of a squall line to roll through central PA in the summertime. I said a few days ago this winter needs to go hard or go home in Feb/Mar, it needs to start by delivering the first line of snow squalls ever to warrant a severe thunderstorm warning haha. Haha. Although some type of warning is needed for situations like this. Not a typical special weather statement (which currently handles situations like this), but something that brings immediate attention like a severe thunderstorm warning, setting off crawls on TVs and alarms on NWRs. There have been too many situations like this where there are major, deadly accidents on roadways with people getting caught off-guard (like 1/6/04 and 2/10/08 to name a couple). And this looks like a classic set up. Temperatures this afternoon rising into the upper 30s/low 40s warming the roadways. Snow initially melts, but at the height of the snow squall, freezes as temperatures fall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 29, 2012 Share Posted January 29, 2012 So, a person on Twitter who has lived here for 15 years said to me "winter's pretty much over as usual right? We don't have much snow in Feb around here". I responded no, actually Feb/Mar are climo more likely to give us major snowstorms, then mentioned the 13-15 inches we got in early Feb 2010. I got several Tweets asking what I was talking about, don't remember anything like that. One person said I don't remember us getting anything over 6 inches for years. I mentioned our surprise snowstorm in March last year when we got 10 inches, no one remembered it. Human memory is very unreliable but it seems especially bad with weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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