NeffsvilleWx Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Bring on the late spring t-storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Billabong Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 By the way, WeatherWorld (airs at 5:30pm and 5:45pm on WPSU) started their 2012 Trivia Contest.... get 10 out of 20 correct for a chance at one of three prizes ($250 Accuweather Pro for a Year, Oregon Scientific Wx Station, or "Category 5" by Paul Tag). http://weatherworld.psu.edu/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2012 Share Posted January 30, 2012 Mid 50s the next few days? Oh hell yes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So, um, might want to hold off on the winter cancel talk. Take a gander in the Philly subforum February thread....the often reliable Euro Weeklies, which have been correctly torching us all winter, did a complete 180. Posts: As mentioned, this could be a hiccup or the ultimate final troll by the Euro. But it's definitely raising eyebrows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So, um, might want to hold off on the winter cancel talk. Take a gander in the Philly subforum February thread....the often reliable Euro Weeklies, which have been correctly torching us all winter, did a complete 180. Posts: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1328757 http://www.americanw...ost__p__1328648 As mentioned, this could be a hiccup or the ultimate final troll by the Euro. But it's definitely raising eyebrows. I don't care what that thing says. This winter is trash. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Didn't JB cut a video on Saturday where he actually laid out some reasonable points as to why a reversal is possible for February? Wouldn't that be what the EURO weeklies are indicating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 I don't care what that thing says. This winter is trash. lol So you're saying less likely to verify than you getting your five bucks from wmsptwx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 He never gave me his address!! It'll be in the mail lol. BTW...this winter is a dud, moving to Philly in April..hopefully we get at least another advisory event before then!!! lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 So you're saying less likely to verify than you getting your five bucks from wmsptwx? Ya where is my 5 bucks!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Didn't JB cut a video on Saturday where he actually laid out some reasonable points as to why a reversal is possible for February? Wouldn't that be what the EURO weeklies are indicating? I'm not subscribed to JB at the new company he works, but there's def reasonable evidence to show that some kind of a pattern change for the better is going to present itself later in the month. I do know from his twitter he's been talking up major European cold to develop. As i've said my thinking's around mid-month when we could see our potential opportunities for some semblence of a winter comeback. Unlike earlier in the winter, we have a markedly changed AO regime.. which is residing at about -3 or so currently. It certainly hadn't been really forecasted to get that strongly negative..but it's quietly gotten there. Quite a change, you can note it in the arctic ice extent..which had been making decent increases and was heading in the direction of getting closer to the 1979-2000 mean than it has in the last couple years. Dominant +AO locks up the arctic air near the poles, thus promotes ice building. You'll note that extent actually FELL around mid-late Jan as the AO was dropping to neutral and negative. All in all, it went from its peak around +4 SD in late Dec to the -3SD it's currently sitting at. A net of -7 standard deviations... thats a major change. The Pac pattern is starting to look pretty good with the major ridge forecast to build into Alaska (-EPO) as well as positive PNA and the forecasted MJO pulse heading thru 7 towards 8. The Euro ensembles have the MJO moving through at least 7 and 8. Most of the other major guidance/ensembles look fairly good as well. You can flip thru the different models going to that link below. http://www.cpc.ncep....clivar_wh.shtml It would def be nice to get the NAO in on the party by going negative or at the least staying around neutral. GFS ensemble members kept it a lil more positive today. These forecasted changes in the Pac if they hold are def gonna make things chillier after this week or perhaps early next week depending on what ends up happening with the evolution of the couple systems near the end of the week. I wouldn't completely turn a blind eye to the end of the week/weekend speaking of which, as the run to run model continuity vs each other as well as themselves have been quite the @#$%show. Any rate right now I think there's gonna be a 7-10 day period where we see our chances to get the big storm and a decent overall established winter weather pattern. If we actually pull off the full MJO phase 7-8-1 run and curl back, we might be talking about a more extended period of fun. Right now though let's see if this potential recipe for fun on the table comes to fruition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yawn... Thu-Fri Weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Yawn... Thu-Fri Weekend Works for me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Today's awesome. I'm pumped for spring, bring on baseball. Winter can stay away, I'll take today every day of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Same, I'm glad..I'll take this over rain or low end advisory crap. Bring on spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS is a pretty ugly run for snow lovers. Any expected pattern change could easily not produce a sizable storm given several uncorporative factors. Outside the second week period, I think a return to warmth is possible with Pacific air flooding the nation. Generally I am not overly enthusiastic for the snow prospects through the rest of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Guys, I just have that feeling winter never really arrived this year. Let's pack it up and hope for a better 12-13 winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 GFS is a pretty ugly run for snow lovers. Any expected pattern change could easily not produce a sizable storm given several uncorporative factors. Outside the second week period, I think a return to warmth is possible with Pacific air flooding the nation. Generally I am not overly enthusiastic for the snow prospects through the rest of winter. One thing that Joe Lundberg brings up that reared it's ugly head in 2001-2002 - perfect pattern, no arctic air: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/lundberg/beyond-the-tast/60959 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Guys, I just have that feeling winter never really arrived this year. Let's pack it up and hope for a better 12-13 winter. Hope for a Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 51.9° this afternoon...what winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Today's awesome. I'm pumped for spring, bring on baseball. Winter can stay away, I'll take today every day of the year. Shut up! Shut up! YOU SHUT UP! This is me and you after this post... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wanna meet on an island and fight it out? Or have a beer or 8 at Duke's ... Ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Interesting explanation why the models are flipping around: Nice discussion between mgorse and ampsu..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 lol 58ºF outside. That last week of January heat wave came after all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 lol 58ºF outside. That last week of January heat wave came after all. When you are sweating in January, something is wrong I despise heat at anytime, ugghghghghghg. 2011-2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 When you are sweating in January, something is wrong I despise heat at anytime, ugghghghghghg. 2011-2012 We'll nail the forecast the next time a X1-X2 winter rolls around, See: 91-92, 01-02, and 11-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 65 degrees. Gonna grill some burgers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Swiped this off of BGM's Facebook page. Caption was: "On this unseasonably warm afternoon...even Mother Nature is puzzled by the lack of winter weather." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 31, 2012 Author Share Posted January 31, 2012 Both the 12z and 18z GFS have been keeping the second system progressive moving the low and what's left of the precip south of PA late Sunday instead of cutting the storm off in the central plains for what seemed like 9234623842346 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted January 31, 2012 Share Posted January 31, 2012 Wanna meet on an island and fight it out? Or have a beer or 8 at Duke's ... Ha Mmmmmm.... Duke's crab dip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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