Central PA Winter 11-12 cont'd

[MAG5035]

Huge local diffs in temp this eve. In Bellwood and Tyrone it was all the way down to 36ºF in places, while here at the house which is maybe 100-200 ft higher it is still a whopping 48ºF

[Atomixwx]

Huge local diffs in temp this eve. In Bellwood and Tyrone it was all the way down to 36ºF in places, while here at the house which is maybe 100-200 ft higher it is still a whopping 48ºF

Well listen, if you were warm air, would you really want to be in Bellwood or Tyrone? Be honest here.

[JamieOber]

Well listen, if you were warm air, would you really want to be in Bellwood or Tyrone? Be honest here.

Bellwood. Tyrone's a tough town.

[Atomixwx]

Bellwood. Tyrone's a tough town.

I'll give you 'tough'. My grandparents lived down the road from Tyrone in Water Street and as a precocious little 7-year-old I used to get hopped up on Thunderbird and PCP and walk up the pike into Tyrone where every Friday night the locals were waiting for me with weapons and large crowds in hopes that this week would be the week they would prevail, but they never did. Every Friday I gave it

. Tyrone just took it and asked for me.

The legend lives on. Ask Denzel. When he was in town shooting a stupid train movie, he was told the tale and it turned him white. It also made him a ****ty actor.

[MAG5035]

I'll give you 'tough'. My grandparents lived down the road from Tyrone in Water Street and as a precocious little 7-year-old I used to get hopped up on Thunderbird and PCP and walk up the pike into Tyrone where every Friday night the locals were waiting for me with weapons and large crowds in hopes that this week would be the week they would prevail, but they never did. Every Friday I gave it

. Tyrone just took it and asked for me.

The legend lives on. Ask Denzel. When he was in town shooting a stupid train movie, he was told the tale and it turned him white. It also made him a ****ty actor.

LOL. I didn't know you were familiar with the area.

[Wmsptwx]

This winter sucks. Its the last day in January and all there is to talk about it Western PA towns.

[Atomixwx]

This winter sucks. Its the last day in January and all there is to talk about it Central PA towns.

FIFY

[MAG5035]

This winter sucks. Its the last day in January and all there is to talk about it Western PA towns.

Well there was tonights DGEX which dropped a snow bomb on south central PA by having a combination of not squashing the storms precip too much while tracking it under C-PA and having barely enough cold air for a wet snowfall. Since its at 102 hours, its only in the DGEX's LOL range not its LMFAO range. 0z GFS continues to keep this thing moving steadily but squashes everything south and with very little QPF once it's passing under PA.

[EasternUSWX]

Got compix graphic maker. Some serious maps to be made now!

[EasternUSWX]

Ohh yaaa baby!

[JamieOber]

I'll give you 'tough'. My grandparents lived down the road from Tyrone in Water Street and as a precocious little 7-year-old I used to get hopped up on Thunderbird and PCP and walk up the pike into Tyrone where every Friday night the locals were waiting for me with weapons and large crowds in hopes that this week would be the week they would prevail, but they never did. Every Friday I gave it

. Tyrone just took it and asked for me.

The legend lives on. Ask Denzel. When he was in town shooting a stupid train movie, he was told the tale and it turned him white. It also made him a ****ty actor.

When I first moved here, I was told never to go to Tyrone because there's an "element."

Having lived in both York and Pittsburgh, I lol'd.

[kerplunk]

York is unique. Grew up in Camp Hill boro and we'd go south to York for adventure - even though Hbg was much closer and had its own "interesting" neighborhoods. Samuel Clemens had some nefarious and humorous quote about York, but I can't seem to locate it now.

[Jmister]

Ohh yaaa baby!

Impressive graphics, sir!

The only good coming from this unseasonably-boring weather is that I can actually concentrate on courses and research…if that's a good thing.

[Atomixwx]

When I first moved here, I was told never to go to Tyrone because there's an "element."

Sounds like what people are told about Mount Union.

[EasternUSWX]

Impressive graphics, sir!

The only good coming from this unseasonably-boring weather is that I can actually concentrate on courses and research…if that's a good thing.

Thank you. A lot more and better ones to come.

Hopefully some with snow.

[EasternUSWX]

I'll take it! lol

[canderson]

I wish I could bottle up and sell today.

[JamieOber]

I wish I could bottle up and sell today.

It's a bit nippy up here, upper 40s with a gusty breeze. That said it feels much more like a post-cold front day in April than early Feb.

[JamieOber]

The 12Z GFS is doing the equivalent of lighting up in front of someone trying to stop smoking.

[EasternUSWX]

The 12Z GFS is doing the equivalent of lighting up in front of someone trying to stop smoking.

NAM/GFS similar.. other models meh.

[EasternUSWX]

Another wonderful graphic for tomorrow.

[PottercountyWXobserver]

Whoever said the AO always is tied in with the NAO was wrong. The -AO is tanking and the NAO still remains raging positive. If the MJO wave 8-1-2 coming up can't force the NAO to go negative, nothing will this winter. Until we get that NAO to go negative we won't see any prolonged cold spell but transient in nature instead. Still could be stormy though with a +PNA, -AO and favorable MJO. EPO looks decent as well.

[JamieOber]

Whoever said the AO always is tied in with the NAO was wrong. The -AO is tanking and the NAO still remains raging positive. If the MJO wave 8-1-2 coming up can't force the NAO to go negative, nothing will this winter. Until we get that NAO to go negative we won't see any prolonged cold spell but transient in nature instead. Still could be stormy though with a +PNA, -AO and favorable MJO. EPO looks decent as well.

This was really interesting about the AO - it's not that low right now:

Two notes on the AO:

1. The daily values for January 29 and 30 have been recalculated. The initially reported values were -4.441 and -4.464 respectively. The recalculated figures are -2.981 and -2.500.

2. Today's reported AO is -2.151. It should be noted that the GFS ensembles tank the AO toward mid-month. That kind of outcome would be consistent with the 2/8-15 period turning out cold in the East, if it verifies.

As you can see, it's actually RISING. As usedtobe noted, that's a significant difference.

[MAG5035]

This was really interesting about the AO - it's not that low right now: http://www.americanw...ost__p__1329704

As you can see, it's actually RISING. As usedtobe noted, that's a significant difference.

I was wondering where those really low AO values came from, since the lowest I had saw on the chart was around -3. Still though, thats a pretty sufficiently established -AO and forecast to generally remain that way. You know i'm not going to be the one that says any storms are doomed for us if the NAO hits +0.01 but if it continues to trend as positive as the last few forecasts have been, thats going to be an issue. The GEFS MJO forecasts have been really resisting the pulse getting to phase 8, todays forecast generally gets it to the 7/8 line before trending back toward the circle at the end of 15 days. So the tropical forcings not getting there by the end of 15 days to try to help force the neg nao, hence why you see the CPC chart continue to crank positive values. Models like the Euro and the GFS operational have been getting into phase 8 more easily. Just alot of model meyhem in general, I wouldn't give up on the mid month period..I mean we're still nowhere near knowing what the hecks gonna happen with the system at the end of the weekend/early next week. Also, remember the end of the month heat wave cancel back in Mid Jan? That heat wave certainly snuck back into the forecast.

We might as well just go to Punxy for a beer or 12 and await the biggest forecast run of our lives to come out of his hole at 7am.

[Atomixwx]

We might as well just go to Punxsy for a beer or 12 and await the biggest forecast run of our lives to come out of his hole at 7am.

If that *********** sees his shadow and calls for '6 more weeks of winter' in a non-existent winter that has seen like 50 days of above average temperatures, he should be shot on sight and the tradition of Groundhog Day should be terminated.

[JSTWX]

I was wondering where those really low AO values came from, since the lowest I had saw on the chart was around -3. Still though, thats a pretty sufficiently established -AO and forecast to generally remain that way. You know i'm not going to be the one that says any storms are doomed for us if the NAO hits +0.01 but if it continues to trend as positive as the last few forecasts have been, thats going to be an issue. The GEFS MJO forecasts have been really resisting the pulse getting to phase 8, todays forecast generally gets it to the 7/8 line before trending back toward the circle at the end of 15 days. So the tropical forcings not getting there by the end of 15 days to try to help force the neg nao, hence why you see the CPC chart continue to crank positive values. Models like the Euro and the GFS operational have been getting into phase 8 more easily. Just alot of model meyhem in general, I wouldn't give up on the mid month period..I mean we're still nowhere near knowing what the hecks gonna happen with the system at the end of the weekend/early next week. Also, remember the end of the month heat wave cancel back in Mid Jan? That heat wave certainly snuck back into the forecast.

We might as well just go to Punxy for a beer or 12 and await the biggest forecast run of our lives to come out of his hole at 7am.

It's been quite a while now (60 days?) since it's gotten out of its stable zone and crept out and away.

It will be interesting to see if it continues to stay in 8 for a while, before returning to neutral, or even trying to stay near 8-1-2 for a while like it did in 5 and 6. A negative EPO with an octant 8 MJO should help us to get something going mid-month. If not, hasta la vista winter!

[JamieOber]

York is unique. Grew up in Camp Hill boro and we'd go south to York for adventure - even though Hbg was much closer and had its own "interesting" neighborhoods. Samuel Clemens had some nefarious and humorous quote about York, but I can't seem to locate it now.

I love my hometown, warts and all. I grew up on the north end near Kiwanis Lake/Farquhar Park and the Parkway Projects. Yeah, my grandma lived in a neighborhood that is as bad as any in Philly, and my old neighborhood has gone from just looking like the hood but low crime to being the hood. But I still love York, there are some cool areas and the surrounding countryside is very nice in spots.

My best friend growing up's one nephew is in a rap group that's trying to break through the music scene. They shot a video that's mostly in my old neighborhood:

That pond in the background (aforementioned Kiwanis Lake) is where my dad taught me to fish and the basketball court is where I used to play hoops. It's just weird to see it in a rap video. He's got nice flow, btw.

I've seen some memorable weather there - Blizzard of 78, PD1, Blizzard of 83, and various other snow events. Our house had a pretty clear view of the west/northwest, plus an electric company substation, which made for dramatic views of t-storms approaching. Sweltered through the hot summers of 77 and 88. Brutal arctic blasts in 78, Christmas arctic blasts in 80, 83 and 89. Good stuff.

[NeffsvilleWx]

I love my hometown, warts and all. I grew up on the north end near Kiwanis Lake/Farquhar Park and the Parkway Projects. Yeah, my grandma lived in a neighborhood that is as bad as any in Philly, and my old neighborhood has gone from just looking like the hood but low crime to being the hood. But I still love York, there are some cool areas and the surrounding countryside is very nice in spots.

My best friend growing up's one nephew is in a rap group that's trying to break through the music scene. They shot a video that's mostly in my old neighborhood:

That pond in the background (aforementioned Kiwanis Lake) is where my dad taught me to fish and the basketball court is where I used to play hoops. It's just weird to see it in a rap video. He's got nice flow, btw.

I've seen some memorable weather there - Blizzard of 78, PD1, Blizzard of 83, and various other snow events. Our house had a pretty clear view of the west/northwest, plus an electric company substation, which made for dramatic views of t-storms approaching. Sweltered through the hot summers of 77 and 88. Brutal arctic blasts in 78, Christmas arctic blasts in 80, 83 and 89. Good stuff.

York dork!

Sorry, couldn't resist. The war of the roses rages on. There's an ongoing argument between a coworker and I over which city/county is better: Lancaster or York. It's been 3 years since the argument started and we are nowhere near the end.

[JamieOber]

York dork!

Sorry, couldn't resist. The war of the roses rages on. There's an ongoing argument between a coworker and I over which city/county is better: Lancaster or York. It's been 3 years since the argument started and we are nowhere near the end.

LOL!

I played football for York High and played in the War of the Roses against McCaskey.

I actually like them both. Lancaster is great.

[Wmsptwx]

You guys probably have heard about Willpo's warts lol. Gun violence has been a major issue here. It's an okay place to live, but still not what it used to be.