Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nah...just looked GFS is MUCH MUCH warmer. Doubt we see any freezing/frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Nah...just looked GFS is MUCH MUCH warmer. Doubt we see any freezing/frozen precip. Read this from NWS: http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off And CMC is showing a mix. http://collaboration...pe_gem_reg.html Agree should be mostly rain. Also found this interesting http://forecast.weat...1&highlight=off .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...THIS PERIOD SHOULD START OFF FAIR AND DRY AS PA WILL BE WITHINHIGH PRES ZONE UNDER CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER BY SUNDAYTHINGS START TO LOOK POTENTIALLY INTERESTING AS THE MAJORITY OFTHE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW A SIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE LIFTINGNEWD OUT OF THE GOMEX. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD WITH THIS SYSTEM ANDTHEREFORE FORECASTER CONFIDENCE IS LOW AND UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH.THE LARGE MODEL SPREAD IS LIKELY DUE AT LEAST IN PART TO THEEVOLVING SPLIT-FLOW PATTERN PROGRESSING FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSSTHE CONUS. THE LONG TERM GRIDS WERE CONSTRUCTED USING A MANUALBLEND WHICH ALLOWED FOR MENTION OF PCPN OVR THE SRN ZONES ON DAY6/SUN GIVING A NOD TO THE ECMWF/NOGAPS DESPITE THE MAJORITY OFTHE GUIDANCE SHOWING A LOW TRACK TO FAR TO THE SOUTH TO IMPACTTHE CWA. THIS SYSTEM DEFINITELY BEARS WATCHING WITH THE POTENTIALFOR SIGNIFICANT WINTRY PCPN NW OF THE LOW TRACK. IT SHOULD ALSO BENOTED THAT THE GFS AND ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN HAVE AT TIMES SHOWN AN ERNBIAS WITH RESPECT TO DEVELOPING EAST COAST STORMS AT LONGERRANGES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 what the **** is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I have no fookin clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 what the **** is that? I have no fookin clue. He could be our mascot and keeper of our CPA purple Squirel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 He could be our mascot and keeper of our CPA purple Squirel? Somebody with photoshop skills, make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Snow Y U NO like Central PA??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Somebody with photoshop skills, make it happen. we could be the 1st on the board to have our own sub-forum mascot (s) and maybe shirts made..hahah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Waiting for a phone call to start and I'm bored. My first call for 3/1-3/2 storm: IPT: 10-14 Potter County: 14-18 Hazleton: 12-16 UNV: 10-14 MDT: 8-12 w/sleet Clearfield: 8-12 easternuswx's backyard: 10-14 PHL/DCA/IAD/BWI/NYC/BOS: HAHAHAHAHA suck on your rain, bitches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Waiting for a phone call to start and I'm bored. My first call for 3/1-3/2 storm: IPT: 10-14 Potter County: 14-18 Hazleton: 12-16 UNV: 10-14 MDT: 8-12 w/sleet Clearfield: 8-12 easternuswx's backyard: 10-14 PHL/DCA/IAD/BWI/NYC/BOS: HAHAHAHAHA suck on your rain, bitches. yeah and eat our purple squirrels $hit fixed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 HAHAHAHAHAHAHA this is great. I don't know whats funnier, the I 95 predictions or the fact you have IPT at 10-14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey, its snowing out...finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Just read this. On or about Tuesday, February 14, 2012, beginning with the 1200 Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) run, the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) will be updated. http://www.nws.noaa....ncrease_aab.htm Good for U Mag! Has to be heading our way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hey, its snowing out...finally. Was mostly rain for a bit, now mostly snow and coming down at a good clip. Maybe a coating once it gets dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Ratio of snow to rain seems to vary according to intensity, as you'd expect with temps in the upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 :lmao: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Was mostly rain for a bit, now mostly snow and coming down at a good clip. Maybe a coating once it gets dark. Still almost all rain here in Bellefonte...weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 12z models are actually pretty decently on the same page today with the weekend storm, they're just all too far southeast. We need some more amplification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 I wouldn't look too far into it, but the 18z NAM is pretty wintry on Thursday for at least the Northern half of the state. State College print out: http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/cobb/cobb.php?model=namm&site=kunv 120216/1600Z 46 15011KT 32.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 88| 0| 12 120216/1700Z 47 15011KT 32.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 91| 0| 9 120216/1800Z 48 15013KT 32.2F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.161 10:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120216/1900Z 49 16014KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 12:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 120216/2000Z 50 16013KT 32.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 120216/2100Z 51 17011KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 0| 0|100 120216/2200Z 52 18010KT 33.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 0| 0|100 120216/2300Z 53 18008KT 33.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 0| 0|100 120217/0000Z 54 19007KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hell.. why not.. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Still almost all rain here in Bellefonte...weird. 1200' here. A few hundred feet could make that difference. Actually now there is a lot of rain mixed in...comes and goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hckyplayer8 Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Hell.. why not.. lol Looks like a PDII wannabe. Just missing the closed H5 low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 I wouldn't look too far into it, but the 18z NAM is pretty wintry on Thursday for at least the Northern half of the state. State College print out: http://www.meteor.ia...=namm&site=kunv 120216/1600Z 46 15011KT 32.5F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.043 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.04 88| 0| 12 120216/1700Z 47 15011KT 32.4F SNOW 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.083 10:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.13 91| 0| 9 120216/1800Z 48 15013KT 32.2F SNOW 11:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.161 10:1| 2.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.29 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120216/1900Z 49 16014KT 32.0F SNOW 15:1| 1.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.098 12:1| 4.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.39 100| 0| 0 120216/2000Z 50 16013KT 32.2F SNOW 6:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.047 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.43 100| 0| 0 120216/2100Z 51 17011KT 32.5F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.024 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.46 0| 0|100 120216/2200Z 52 18010KT 33.1F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.47 0| 0|100 120216/2300Z 53 18008KT 33.4F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.48 0| 0|100 120217/0000Z 54 19007KT 33.8F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 11:1| 4.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.49 0| 0|100 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- Yea the NAM has pretty consistently been the coldest with this system since its gotten in it's range. Def not out of the question that the central counties could get a thump of snow as the region can have a knack for pulling off a snowfall in a really marginal situation. Seems to have a nice slug of heavier precip too, so could be enough to collapse the column. NAM obviously has a finer resolution to see thermals at a much more local level, but the mid-late range NAM is also an accomplished troller. So we shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Looks like a PDII wannabe. Just missing the closed H5 low. All bets are off. Will be hugging this run till I die or a better one comes along. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Aleeett Aleeett. Looks like 18Z GFS about to shift north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 Much closer. 0Z hmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted February 14, 2012 Author Share Posted February 14, 2012 I guess I should note that the only major model of the 12z suite that did something differently was the normally really suppressed NOGAPs which took this weekend low from TX to the central lakes. I mean I take the Nogaps mid range handling of this complicated split flow regime about as seriously as someone that told me it was gonna rain purple squirrels..but it didn't bury this system to Bermuda like you'd think it would. And last nights run had about the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted February 14, 2012 Share Posted February 14, 2012 1200' here. A few hundred feet could make that difference. Actually now there is a lot of rain mixed in...comes and goes. Yeah I'm at about 800' here. It's transitioning here now...white rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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