usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/february-outlook-another-warm-month-with-less-snow-than-normal-thats-my-guess/2012/01/26/gIQAhnwcTQ_blog.html#pagebreak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 it's weird just last night i said you would cancel feb soon in a comment on pm update. i know -- not cancelling.. wes junker v bb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It's a well written article even though I pretty much don't like anything it says. Hard to argue with the call. Maybe we pull off a 3-6 with a well timed vort and spike in the pna followed by 2 days of cold to keep it on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 it's weird just last night i said you would cancel feb soon in a comment on pm update. i know -- not cancelling.. wes junker v bb I didn't cancel it as I don't have enough confidence to do that. I really waffled between near normal snow and below normal. The same holds for temps. I had a hard time deciding between normal and warmer than normal and then after seeing the GFS and GFS ens mean decided that the pattern still didn't look very good for snow. I could easily be wrong but think 30" is about as likely as the skins winning their division next season. Possible but an very low probably of occurrance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I didn't cancel it as I don't have enough confidence to do that. I really waffled between near normal snow and below normal. The same holds for temps. I had a hard time deciding between normal and warmer than normal and then after seeing the GFS and GFS ens mean decided that the pattern still didn't look very good for snow. I could easily be wrong but think 30" is about as likely as the skins winning their division next season. Possible but an very low probably of occurrance. Euro Ens seem to be indicating a pretty good period from the 5th on, this has a nice look to it, probably the best look all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I didn't cancel it as I don't have enough confidence to do that. I really waffled between near normal snow and below normal. The same holds for temps. I had a hard time deciding between normal and warmer than normal and then after seeing the GFS and GFS ens mean decided that the pattern still didn't look very good for snow. I could easily be wrong but think 30" is about as likely as the skins winning their division next season. Possible but an very low probably of occurrance. just wait til Peyton gets here. Nice article, Wes. I sure wish it was you making a 30" call for Feb but normal Feb snow is still decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Euro Ens seem to be indicating a pretty good period from the 5th on, this has a nice look to it, probably the best look all winter. I commented on that to Matt. It is the best look so far. My article was written before it came out. Such is life. If I had seen it I probably would have gone with normal temps and near normal snowfall here more like the negative AO composite though for DCA, even with a negative AO, snow is hard to come by. For you guys, it's a different story. Still even if it is correct, that doesn't mean the pattern holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I commented on that to Matt. It is the best look so far. My article was written before it came out. Such is life. If I had seen it I probably would have gone with normal temps and near normal snowfall here more like the negative AO composite though for DCA, even with a negative AO, snow is hard to come by. For you guys, it's a different story. Still even if it is correct, that doesn't mean the pattern holds. Can not post it but the extended looks pretty good too. I would say it appears that we at least have a 15 day window to get all of us in the action. You are so much more adept at this than I ever thought of being but I am encouraged by the consistency of the Euro Ens for the aforementioned period. Best of luck and tips up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why do we think a good look on extended models won't vanish like every other time this winter? Yeah many looks weren't great but I distinctly remember ORH and others saying "this looks different" about 7-10 days ago and then it disappeared. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Can not post it but the extended looks pretty good too. I would say it appears that we at least have a 15 day window to get all of us in the action. You are so much more adept at this than I ever thought of being but I am encouraged by the consistency of the Euro Ens for the aforementioned period. Best of luck and tips up. That's good. The cfs2 weeklies had a nice pattern but later in the month so we probably will see a a better pattern than it's been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why do we think a good look on extended models won't vanish like every other time this winter? Yeah many looks weren't great but I distinctly remember ORH and others saying "this looks different" about 7-10 days ago and then it disappeared. That's true but it could also be right. My guess is that the next run will be different but we will see at least one decent period this month. hope I bust early rather than late. Of the 3 months this winter, this was the one I found toughest to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Latest Euro weeklies just released reaffirm the warm pattern... a brief weakness in the pattern 2/6-12 before the warmth reemerges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Latest Euro weeklies just released reaffirm the warm pattern... a brief weakness in the pattern 2/6-12 before the warmth reemerges. Thanks, my buddy Ginx had shaken me to the core. Now I stand strong like a CWG member should because we are powerful. well at least Jason is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why do we think a good look on extended models won't vanish like every other time this winter? Yeah many looks weren't great but I distinctly remember ORH and others saying "this looks different" about 7-10 days ago and then it disappeared. I agree that there are going to be battles between temperature air masses through the first half of February with the lack of -NAO and retrograding Alaskan Vortex (PNA response). But things now are definitely different than they were in December (see my recent post in the main forum about the global state). If the MJO can make it beyond phase 6-7, winter would definitely get some revenge. In 2005-06 in late January, we got a nice stratospheric-MJO response (feedback on each other) which ultimately lead to the February KU storm and cool period within a very warm winter. It is going to be tough though for the Mid Atlantic, as always the case in La Niña (even when you get a 2010-like block). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Thanks for another great read, Wes. I learn something new every time. I think that February may hold some pleasant surprises for us at this latitude. I am just hoping for enough cold to consistently burn my new wood stove. Must be the same curse that blocks snow and cold as purchasing a new snowblower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why do we think a good look on extended models won't vanish like every other time this winter? Yeah many looks weren't great but I distinctly remember ORH and others saying "this looks different" about 7-10 days ago and then it disappeared. Latest Euro weeklies just released reaffirm the warm pattern... a brief weakness in the pattern 2/6-12 before the warmth reemerges. Thanks, my buddy Ginx had shaken me to the core. Now I stand strong like a CWG member should because we are powerful. well at least Jason is. Ian we are in a different regime, the MJO is encouraging, weeklies look better to me with the PNA ridge and a semblance of blocking. Oops saw HM responded, good luck Ian and Wes hope you get a storm or two to track and enjoy in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Why do we think a good look on extended models won't vanish like every other time this winter? Yeah many looks weren't great but I distinctly remember ORH and others saying "this looks different" about 7-10 days ago and then it disappeared. The NAO has been pretty shaky and the models tend to do worse with that part of the longwave pattern than the large pacific amplifications...the Pacific is what looks the best right now...the NAO looks weakly negative or maybe neutral, but that can change. I don't have confidence in the NAO....the Pacific shift looks fairly real and has some other support for it other than just the ensembles saying it will happen. I think the ensembles were showing the big PNA spike a week ago too but it was rushing it a bit...or maybe not rushing it, but failing to see the first temporary back down of it...because we are getting a PNA spike here in the shorter term before the northern Pacific changes (AK vortex getting flushed). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I agree that there are going to be battles between temperature air masses through the first half of February with the lack of -NAO and retrograding Alaskan Vortex (PNA response). But things now are definitely different than they were in December (see my recent post in the main forum about the global state). If the MJO can make it beyond phase 6-7, winter would definitely get some revenge. In 2005-06 in late January, we got a nice stratospheric-MJO response (feedback on each other) which ultimately lead to the February KU storm and cool period within a very warm winter. It is going to be tough though for the Mid Atlantic, as always the case in La Niña (even when you get a 2010-like block). I think this is the toughest month to call of the winter as the polar vortex is different which could allow blocking to develop where we need it or we could be unlucky. For DD, decent snowstorms in La Nina years are so much tougher than in neutral or nino years that we have to get lucky to get to normal in any month but a negative AO and positive PNA pattern sure would help. It looks like we could see that sometime in Feb. I doubt we can hold it long but I have never claimed skill at long range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I think this is the toughest month to call of the winter as the polar vortex is different which could allow blocking to develop where we need it or we could be unlucky. For DD, decent snowstorms in La Nina years are so much tougher than in neutral or nino years that we have to get lucky to get to normal in any month but a negative AO and positive PNA pattern sure would help. It looks like we could see that sometime in Feb. I doubt we can hold it long but I have never claimed skill at long range forecasting. I agree 100% with you and yes yes I know you don't claim skill so allow me to do it for you..."you've got skill man!" If I had my own long range company, I wouldn't even interview you if you wanted to work for me (although I know about your golfing habits!). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 I agree 100% with you and yes yes I know you don't claim skill so allow me to do it for you..."you've got skill man!" If I had my own long range company, I wouldn't even interview you if you wanted to work for me (although I know about your golfing habits!). he is the most humble man I know, now that would be a company I would invest in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 I agree 100% with you and yes yes I know you don't claim skill so allow me to do it for you..."you've got skill man!" If I had my own long range company, I wouldn't even interview you if you wanted to work for me (although I know about your golfing habits!). My fishing habits are more capricious than my golfing ones. As for long range forecasting, it's hard to disagree with D. Sutherland but you, adam and a number of others here do great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Week 3 weeklies are warmer but by no means a complete reversal back to the current pattern, we will have to see how this all evolves but suffice to say that we at least have a chance in Feb for some action . Lets hope the MJO has some MOJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 he is the most humble man I know, now that would be a company I would invest in. Now days investing in any start up is a prescription for losing money, but thanks for the vote of confidence. I'm not humble, ask my wife, I consider myself a really good snow and QPF guy but long range stuff is a reach. I'm not that good. I just want one decent storm this year so I hope the euro look is semi-right. I'd happily see my forecast bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Now days investing in any start up is a prescription for losing money, but thanks for the vote of confidence. I'm not humble, ask my wife, I consider myself a really good snow and QPF guy but long range stuff is a reach. I'm not that good. I just want one decent storm this year so I hope the euro look is semi-right. I'd happily see my forecast bust. Good luck buddy! well I mean I hope you bust buddy, lol. Depends on what you invest in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 Now days investing in any start up is a prescription for losing money, but thanks for the vote of confidence. I'm not humble, ask my wife, I consider myself a really good snow and QPF guy but long range stuff is a reach. I'm not that good. I just want one decent storm this year so I hope the euro look is semi-right. I'd happily see my forecast bust. Now that is a true, humble, snow weenie! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Good luck buddy! well I mean I hope you bust buddy, lol. Depends on what you invest in. It does and investing is not a strong point. We've lsot oney since the market tanked and never completely recovered. I do think Jan 5-11 is a window where we have a chance for a snowstorm as the PNA spikes. I suspect there will be a another spike later in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It does and investing is not a strong point. We've lsot oney since the market tanked and never completely recovered. I do think Jan 5-11 is a window where we have a chance for a snowstorm as the PNA spikes. I suspect there will be a another spike later in the month. Oh know, we have to wait until then. By the way Wes, the 18z GFS is a weenies dream. We should save the images because in less then 6 hours they will be gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 It does and investing is not a strong point. We've lsot oney since the market tanked and never completely recovered. I do think Jan 5-11 is a window where we have a chance for a snowstorm as the PNA spikes. I suspect there will be a another spike later in the month. freudian slip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted January 26, 2012 Author Share Posted January 26, 2012 Oh know, we have to wait until then. lol, oops, Feb 5-11. You know age is the great leveler. Just ask Bob Chill and his feb 4, 2009 post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted January 26, 2012 Share Posted January 26, 2012 he is the most humble man. Weather will do that to a person! You arrogance level basically declines proportionally with age in long range forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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