gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Didn't we have this discussion before? It's mid January. The amount of snow loss due to insolation, especially when temps are going to be as cold as they are, is minimal. Plus if ratios reach potential this is gonna be one you want too see fall and accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Didn't we have this discussion before? It's mid January. The amount of snow loss due to insolation, especially when temps are going to be as cold as they are, is minimal. It is mid January, however don't forget that it has been fairly mild thus far. I've seen a few bursts of heavier snow move through, and dump about 1-2"overnight, once daylight hits, it melts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is mid January, however don't forget that it has been fairly mild thus far. I've seen a few bursts of heavier snow move through, and dump about 1-2"overnight, once daylight hits, it melts. facepalm city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It is mid January, however don't forget that it has been fairly mild thus far. I've seen a few bursts of heavier snow move through, and dump about 1-2"overnight, once daylight hits, it melts. This snow is coming after a cold blast and during a cold blast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Let's hope so! Although I do think that the euro will continue to increase its QPF output for us as it will start to trend more north. Good news is that the torch looks semi-muted next week but probably still will get a couple of warm days. It could go either way. Lack of initial/decreasing amplitude with the s/w makes me think this thing could only go so far north. But for us, it would only take a noise level shift to get into the northern periphery of the better snows. I'd say the LES potential is one to watch. Sort of reminds me of December 8, 2000. Conditions only looked semi-favourable then but at the end of the day, Oakville walked away with 2 feet of snow. Obviously I'm not calling for the same this time, but these things can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toronto blizzard Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 It could go either way. Lack of initial/decreasing amplitude with the s/w makes me think this thing could only go so far north. But for us, it would only take a noise level shift to get into the northern periphery of the better snows. I'd say the LES potential is one to watch. Sort of reminds me of December 8, 2000. Conditions only looked semi-favourable then but at the end of the day, Oakville walked away with 2 feet of snow. Obviously I'm not calling for the same this time, but these things can surprise. Hmm was too young to remember that but a more recent storm was Jan 2009 when the system tracked more north than expected and gave lake effect snow which added to 3-7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 12z ECMWF LSE: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -14.2 -13.5 1022 49 100 0.01 543 526 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.8 -12.1 1021 75 97 0.22 543 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -13.2 -12.1 1021 83 83 0.14 544 529 MSN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -12.8 -11.0 1022 76 100 0.16 546 529 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -10.2 -9.2 1019 87 100 0.24 546 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.4 -10.1 1019 88 56 0.05 546 532 MKE: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.8 -12.8 1021 76 98 0.09 546 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.1 -9.4 1018 87 98 0.31 547 533 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.0 -9.0 1017 84 84 0.11 547 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.4 -8.1 1018 80 14 0.01 548 534 SBM: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -9.9 -14.5 1022 70 100 0.05 543 526 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.1 -12.5 1019 84 98 0.22 544 529 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.6 -11.7 1019 82 64 0.05 544 530 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.9 -10.5 1019 82 18 0.00 546 532 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.2 -8.3 1021 69 21 0.01 551 534 CID: FRI 12Z 20-JAN -11.8 -7.3 1020 56 99 0.01 551 536 FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.4 -5.0 1017 59 85 0.03 551 538 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.7 -5.7 1016 77 76 0.01 550 538 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -9.8 -6.6 1018 82 52 0.01 550 536 DVN: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.5 -4.7 1017 47 79 0.03 551 538 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -5.6 -4.3 1016 67 79 0.02 551 539 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -6.1 -4.8 1016 79 69 0.01 550 537 PIA: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.2 -1.1 1014 60 73 0.01 553 542 RFD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -8.8 -8.0 1020 74 98 0.12 549 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.9 -6.4 1017 85 100 0.12 549 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -6.6 1016 90 81 0.04 549 536 ORD: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.7 -8.0 1020 71 100 0.09 550 534 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.8 -5.8 1017 83 99 0.11 550 537 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.1 -5.4 1015 86 90 0.06 549 537 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.2 -5.5 1016 82 25 0.01 550 537 MDW: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.2 -7.4 1020 65 99 0.07 550 535 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.4 -4.7 1017 72 94 0.08 551 538 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.7 -4.5 1015 80 88 0.05 550 538 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -5.1 1016 81 33 0.01 551 538 DEC: SAT 00Z 21-JAN 1.0 2.9 1012 62 75 0.01 557 548 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.3 2.6 1011 89 64 0.14 555 546 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 -0.2 1014 74 54 0.01 554 543 VPZ: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.0 -6.6 1020 54 100 0.04 551 536 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.8 -2.6 1017 62 87 0.04 552 539 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -4.5 -2.8 1015 78 96 0.05 551 540 LAF: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -1.9 2.3 1012 80 94 0.05 554 545 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.9 0.3 1013 81 63 0.03 553 543 IND: SAT 06Z 21-JAN 0.2 5.4 1010 93 96 0.13 557 549 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -1.7 2.9 1012 90 60 0.11 555 546 OKK: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -2.2 -0.4 1016 49 60 0.01 555 543 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -2.3 2.1 1012 81 100 0.06 554 544 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.2 0.2 1013 84 72 0.05 553 543 FWA: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.1 -1.7 1018 61 83 0.04 554 540 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.4 0.4 1014 79 98 0.06 553 542 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -3.4 -0.9 1014 87 77 0.09 552 542 DAY: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -1.2 0.6 1017 51 64 0.01 558 544 SAT 06Z 21-JAN 0.2 6.4 1011 85 93 0.04 557 548 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -0.7 4.5 1010 93 82 0.26 556 548 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 0.8 3.5 1014 85 55 0.01 557 546 CMH: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -1.4 -0.1 1018 49 77 0.01 557 543 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -0.3 5.4 1013 78 90 0.03 557 547 SAT 12Z 21-JAN 0.7 4.2 1009 93 83 0.15 556 549 SAT 18Z 21-JAN 3.2 4.1 1012 80 61 0.02 557 547 TDZ: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -4.7 -5.8 1020 72 100 0.09 552 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.2 -1.8 1016 82 98 0.09 552 539 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.4 -2.3 1014 91 95 0.18 551 540 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -2.2 -1.4 1017 80 8 0.01 554 541 CLE: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -3.8 -6.4 1021 64 100 0.03 552 536 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -3.4 -1.3 1016 81 98 0.09 552 540 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -2.7 -1.1 1013 92 99 0.28 552 542 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -0.5 -0.2 1015 85 34 0.06 554 542 MKG: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.2 -12.8 1022 67 100 0.02 544 527 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.3 -9.7 1020 83 99 0.23 546 530 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.0 -8.7 1019 85 93 0.14 546 532 GRR: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -7.2 -11.8 1022 53 100 0.01 545 528 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.1 -8.9 1020 82 100 0.20 547 531 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.5 -7.4 1018 87 97 0.18 547 533 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -11.7 -7.9 1018 87 23 0.02 548 534 BTL: FRI 18Z 20-JAN -6.6 -10.5 1022 48 100 0.01 547 530 SAT 00Z 21-JAN -7.4 -7.0 1020 78 99 0.20 549 534 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.1 -5.4 1017 87 99 0.18 549 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -8.6 -6.5 1017 87 53 0.03 549 536 ADG: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.4 -6.6 1021 76 100 0.13 551 535 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.7 -3.5 1017 87 99 0.15 551 538 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.8 -3.9 1015 89 82 0.09 550 538 DTW: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -6.7 -8.6 1022 76 99 0.10 549 532 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.5 -4.9 1017 89 99 0.22 549 536 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.0 -5.1 1016 89 84 0.10 549 537 PHN: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -9.8 -11.6 1023 80 100 0.05 546 528 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -7.8 -7.2 1019 88 100 0.21 547 532 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -7.6 -7.4 1017 88 76 0.07 547 534 YKF: SAT 00Z 21-JAN -8.3 -13.6 1024 66 100 0.01 544 525 SAT 06Z 21-JAN -8.1 -10.5 1021 85 100 0.12 545 528 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -6.2 -8.3 1017 91 87 0.08 545 532 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.8 -6.0 1018 76 14 0.01 548 534 YYZ: SAT 06Z 21-JAN -5.8 -12.4 1022 80 99 0.10 544 527 SAT 12Z 21-JAN -5.1 -9.6 1018 83 90 0.09 545 531 SAT 18Z 21-JAN -4.4 -7.2 1019 76 15 0.02 547 533 Holy **** .52 for MKE? Insane Ratios?? Double digit totals? Bowme Losing money? FTW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Hmm was too young to remember that but a more recent storm was Jan 2009 when the system tracked more north than expected and gave lake effect snow which added to 3-7" The one around mid month? Yeah, that one actually dropped in excess of a foot across the eastern burbs (Pickering east). Winds had more of a southerly component, but the same principle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is it considered addiction when I am going to click refresh about 2000 times during the a single run of the 18z NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 This snow is coming after a cold blast and during a cold blast. I know, I'm just saying..Ground temps are still warm...good setup tho, secondary cold arctic front to plow through.. I think that's what really is helping us with this event, if that front did not come through, we would have been talking another rain event..or mix.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I know, I'm just saying..Ground temps are still warm... Ya thats where are locations differ alot. The lack of snow here has actually turned the ground into a glacier and driven the frost quite deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I know, I'm just saying..Ground temps are still warm... Is it November the 18th by any chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ya thats where are locations differ alot. The lack of snow here has actually turned the ground into a glacier and driven the frost quite deep. I hope your water pipes hold up! Need some snow to insulate those utilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 I know, I'm just saying..Ground temps are still warm...good setup tho, secondary cold arctic front to plow through.. I think that's what really is helping us with this event, if that front did not come through, we would have been talking another rain event..or mix.. Just walked around at my lot... theres 2-3" of Frost after one night of temps in the mid teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Ya thats where are locations differ alot. The lack of snow here has actually turned the ground into a glacier and driven the frost quite deep. The grass around here is not even close to brown..and ground is soaked..not frozen..Last night I picked up about 1.5" of snowfall, and guess what it's all gone..but of course this system is a lot stronger, and rates will make the snow stick quickly and accumulate..the thing I'm trying to say is that we did not have a sustained cold pattern..we were in the 50s yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ajdos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Is it November the 18th by any chance? AM, yeah it's January 18th, and I had thunderstorms yesterday with a temp around 54..HM..and yeah I have not seen more then 3" of snowfall since early December, ever since it's been rain storm after rain storm! A couple of days in the teens, and that's about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Holy **** .52 for MKE? Insane Ratios?? Double digit totals? Bowme Losing money? FTW wouldn't get too excited and i'm not saying you're but, plenty of time for this to shift south enough to cut off a decent chunk of qpf. Could it stay the same sure but if i was a betting man lol - i would favor areas south and sw of mke to jackpot.. I'm prob wrong but it seems the euro and nam are slower than the GFS allowing it to plumper up that little extra. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 wouldn't get too excited and saying you're but, plenty of time for this to shift south enough to cut off a decent chunk of qpf. Could it stay the same sure but if i was a betting man lol - i would favor areas south and sw of mke to jackpot.. I'm prob wrong but it seems the euro and nam are slower than the GFS allowing it to beef that little extra. system still just offshore, we should narrow in pretty soon, either way whether it's .25 or .5 for MKE, the cold and 20:1+ ratios up there say one thing, money for Chicagowx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That must be the system moving onshore near Astoria, OR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 That must be the system moving onshore near Astoria, OR. that's not it. the wave is still well offshore...and it won't be onshore until tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 That must be the system moving onshore near Astoria, OR. I believe our wave is the one after that coming onshore tomorrow afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Will be interesting to see when watches are hoisted. Probably not until tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 that's not it. the wave is still well offshore...and it won't be onshore until tomorrow evening. Would lead one to believe there could still be some decent fluctuations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Would lead one to believe there could still be some decent fluctuations. That and it's a relatively benign ripple in the jet and at 500. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 always lose when i bet with my heart or gut. rather dumb bet no matter what but after a dicked over holiday season when i love snow the most and it was basically snowless I was pretty much fed up with winter and nothing looked like it was changing too fast.. Pissed, and a few beers in when I made the bets that night is normally a good thing for the sober one or vegas. lol i remember when i commented some time back the gfs was advertising a torch on my b-day tomorrow and how I couldn't ask for a much better day to in mid jan to go ice fishing.. Instead its the coldest day of the winter and we're tracking a decent snow event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Buying snow is the new thing it seems. I'll keep it in mind for next winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 18, 2012 Author Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM looks a tad south through 39hrs looking at the orientation and placement of the 850mb isotherms and area of precip in SD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Buying snow is the new thing it seems. I'll keep it in mind for next winter. It's a nice hedge, kind of like betting against your favorite team, win win. early guess is the 18z NAM is a hair south of 12z but who knows. (i see thundersnow is thinking the same thing) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 Has the good snow band almost up to Minneapolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted January 18, 2012 Share Posted January 18, 2012 18z NAM looks a tad south through 39hrs looking at the orientation and placement of the 850mb isotherms and area of precip in SD. and slower? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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