NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS short range trend - GFS gradually trended east in the medium range before showing a storm slightly closer to the coast 102 hours out. It then trended further east before suddenly showing the blizzard 54 hours out. CMC short range trend was probably the worst - it was still too far east even 30 hours out. Surprisingly it had the blizzard 138 hours out before going well offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 12/19/2010 156-hour 12z KMA run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 GFS short range trend - GFS gradually trended east in the medium range before showing a storm slightly closer to the coast 102 hours out. It then trended further east before suddenly showing the blizzard 54 hours out. CMC short range trend was probably the worst - it was still too far east even 30 hours out. Surprisingly it had the blizzard 138 hours out before going well offshore. Great comparison maps. Do you have any Canadian model run images from 12/19/2010 though? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Great comparison maps. Do you have any Canadian model run images from 12/19/2010 though? Are you asking for the images the Canadian had for the storm on the 19th, or from the 19th for the 26th storm? I got most of the models saved for almost all of December 2010, with the CMC starting from 138 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 at least no one started a 12/19 thread today, thank goodness What a good idea! <gets cracking> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Are you asking for the images the Canadian had for the storm on the 19th, or from the 19th for the 26th storm? I got most of the models saved for almost all of December 2010, with the CMC starting from 138 hours out. The images on the 19th for the 26th, since that was exactly a year ago. ;)If not, then no worries.It's very awesome to hear that you have all the models saved on your PC for the 12/26 storm last year; and you should post the CMC on 12/21 since you said that you have it from 138 hours out last year.I hate the fact that the model runs from archived threads are time-sensitive; thus, it makes re-posting them worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Mt. Holly's AFD on 12/19/2010 last year on the 12/26/2010 storm: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --ONE DAY CLOSER TO CHRISTMAS, AND THE THREAT OF MEASURABLE SNOW STILL EXISTS. MOST COMPUTER MODELS ARE STILL INDICATING THAT THERE COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT EAST COAST STORM FOR THE COMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND. AND THEY ARE KEEPING THE STORM TO OUR SOUTH, SO WE WOULD REMAIN ON THE COLD SIDE, MEANING THAT THE PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. TIMING OF THE EVENT IS STILL UP IN THE AIR. THE GFS BRINGS IT IN EARLY, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW OCCURRING FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. THE ECMWF IS SLOWER, WITH THE MAJORITY LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY SUNDAY. SO WE WILL SPEND THE NEXT FEW DAYS REFINING WHAT COULD BE A VERY INTERESTING EVENT. FOR NOW, WILL HAVE SNOW MENTIONED IN THE FORECAST FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. IN THE DAYS LEADING INTO THIS POSSIBLE STORM, THE WEATHER WILL BE QUITE TRANQUIL. HIGH PRESSURE, DROPPING DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST, WILL DOMINATE OUR WEATHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID AND UPPER TEENS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO THE UPPER 20S IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS. TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEEKEND WILL DEPEND ON THE DEVELOPMENT AND TIMING OF THE STORM. IF IT DOES DEVELOP INTO A FULL BLOWN EAST COAST STORM, TEMPERATURES WILL SETTLE INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S. IT SHOULD BE AN INTERESTING WEEK WATCHING THIS POSSIBLE WHITE CHRISTMAS DEVELOP. ENJOY!!-- End Changed Discussion -- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LocoAko Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 My favorite storm of all time. Here are some of my photos... some crazy drifts in here. 25". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 The images on the 19th for the 26th, since that was exactly a year ago. ;)If not, then no worries.It's very awesome to hear that you have all the models saved on your PC for the 12/26 storm last year; and you should post the CMC on 12/21 since you said that you have it from 138 hours out last year.I hate the fact that the model runs from archived threads are time-sensitive; thus, it makes re-posting them worthless. Luckily I decided to save the models only for last December, that was a pattern that can't be forgotten. With the 12/26 models saved though, I also have the models saved for the 12/19 near miss... I don't have the CMC from the 19th for the blizzard, but I do have the GFS from 12/19: And the ECM from 12/19: Also, here's the CMC from 138 hours out - amazing how that model nailed it that far out but was way off by the shorter range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 Thanks for all those nostalgic images, NYCSuburbs. I can not believe how widespread those -10*C and below 850 mb temps were, even down to the Southeast. It was a purely Arctic air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I have ppt, papers, studies and model runs and videos of this storm.... Here's NWS on the night of DEC 26. ..DANGEROUS WINTER STORM OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>070-074-271245- /O.CON.KOKX.BZ.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101227T2300Z/ WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-HUDSON-WESTERN BERGEN- EASTERN BERGEN-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION- EASTERN UNION-ORANGE-PUTNAM-ROCKLAND-NORTHERN WESTCHESTER- RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- 1138 PM EST SUN DEC 26 2010 ..BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY A BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST MONDAY. * HAZARDS...HEAVY SNOW AND STRONG WINDS...WITH CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY AT TIMES. * ACCUMULATIONS...18 TO 24 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS UP TO 30 INCHES POSSIBLE. A New Jersey Special all right, aside from Jan 1996 and Dec 2000... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 It was by far the most exciting storm I have ever been in, tracked and all that jazz. I'll never forget the sights I saw at night.... Incredible wind blown snow. 24 to 27" fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 12/20/2010 0z Euro run for 144-168 hours out. Before the run had the storm clobbering NYC with heavy snow, Earthlight was a bit in a panicked mood as the run depicted the phase occurring at a snail's pace and the SLP was diving down to the Gulf Coast earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hailstorm Posted December 20, 2011 Author Share Posted December 20, 2011 HPC Discussion early in the morning on 12/20/2010: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 ...WINTER STORM STILL INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATESCHRISTMAS WEEKEND...USED THE 00Z/20 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS GOODSUPPORT FROM THE LATEST UKMET WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DURING THEPERIOD. THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT ISWITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTICMODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS. THESUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE DICEY CHANCE THATSHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE AT JUST THE RIGHTTIME AND TRAVERSE MOST OF THE NATION AS SUCH. THE ECMWF HASREASONABLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE HANDLING OF THE FLOWCOMING INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL UNDER THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM.CISCO 06z NOGAPS on 12/20/2010: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I believe DT nailed it when he said the models sort of suffered the same fate they did in the 1/2000 event, where they mistakenly viewed that northern stream disturbance as a kicker. I believe that the 12/26/10 event would have possibly been missed by the models until the last minute had it occurred 10 or 15 years earlier, the pattern with the ridge so far to the east was hostile but the massive 50/50 low setup in NE Canada and -NAO really slowed the progression of everything just enough so that the storm still tracked up the coast, without the 50/50 low it becomes too much thread the needle and that Gulf Coast disturbance likely would have escaped east before the northern stream could catch it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 That block in the Davis Straights was MASSIVE!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 12/19/2009 and 12/27/2010 IMBY... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 Wrote this initial article on December 19th http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-newark/quiet-and-cold-this-week-threat-of-a-christmas-day-snowstorm-new-jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I believe DT nailed it when he said the models sort of suffered the same fate they did in the 1/2000 event, where they mistakenly viewed that northern stream disturbance as a kicker. I believe that the 12/26/10 event would have possibly been missed by the models until the last minute had it occurred 10 or 15 years earlier, the pattern with the ridge so far to the east was hostile but the massive 50/50 low setup in NE Canada and -NAO really slowed the progression of everything just enough so that the storm still tracked up the coast, without the 50/50 low it becomes too much thread the needle and that Gulf Coast disturbance likely would have escaped east before the northern stream could catch it. He then threw in the towel when all the models went east. That block in the Davis Straights was MASSIVE!! Beautiful picture. Wish we can have one now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 fast flow...several shortwaves (5?) made that storm very hard to predict. The mean ridge position in the west was actually located quite far east for a KU event. the shortwaves phased together perfectly and dug straight south just enough for the low turn the corner sharply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 HPC Discussion early in the morning on 12/20/2010: PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSIONNWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD400 AM EST MON DEC 20 2010 VALID 12Z FRI DEC 24 2010 - 12Z MON DEC 27 2010 ...WINTER STORM STILL INDICATED FOR THE EASTERN UNITED STATESCHRISTMAS WEEKEND...USED THE 00Z/20 ECMWF FOR THE PRELIMINARY FRONTS AND PRESSURES FORDAYS 3 THROUGH 7. THIS RUN OF THE DETERMINISTIC ECMWF HAS GOODSUPPORT FROM THE LATEST UKMET WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF THESIGNIFICANT SYNOPTIC WAVE CROSSING THE EASTERN STATES DURING THEPERIOD. THE TRACK IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...BUT ISWITHIN THE ENVELOPE OF REMARKABLY WELL CLUSTERED DETERMINISTICMODELS AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS FROM THE GEFS AND ECENS. THESUPPRESSED TRACK IS MORE LIKELY GIVEN THE DICEY CHANCE THATSHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE SPLIT FLOW WILL PHASE AT JUST THE RIGHTTIME AND TRAVERSE MOST OF THE NATION AS SUCH. THE ECMWF HASREASONABLE SUPPORT FROM ITS ENSEMBLES FOR THE HANDLING OF THE FLOWCOMING INTO THE WEST COAST AS WELL UNDER THE BLOCK DOWNSTREAM.CISCO 06z NOGAPS on 12/20/2010: I was like many others who thought that the storm was a lost cause from 12/20-24, when the complexity of the pattern and unfavorable ridge position would most likely mean an out to sea track. We really lucked out with the perfectly timed and placed phase over the MS River on the night of 12/25. I remember watching it happen and seeing the storm get going down over the Gulf, and knew that a monster was on its way. The next morning we already had good snows coming down with the initial WAA push, and went off to the races after that. But 100 miles further east with that phase, and it would have likely been a storm confined to eastern New England, or a complete fish. Overall, the storm was amazing for us in Nassau County. The best banding set up just to our west over the generally favored spots in NJ, but the duration and power of the winds was incredible. I believe Jones Beach or Jones Inlet recorded gusts to 60 mph, and visibility was just about at zero for hours. It was a true, howling blizzard. And 18 or 20" of snow is nothing to sneeze at for any storm. Amazingly, the dry slot really screwed over eastern Suffolk County. Montauk only had 5 or 6". The storm really went to town in the right spot to just demolish the immediate NYC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I believe there was a lunar eclipse either 12/20 or 12/21, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So was it the euro that first showed it...then all models lost it..and then the GFS finally sniffed it out again..correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So was it the euro that first showed it...then all models lost it..and then the GFS finally sniffed it out again..correct? IIRC the gfs showed it on an 18z run the Friday before the storm, about 180 hours out and held on to it for a long time the euro showed it a few runs later until it lost it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 So was it the euro that first showed it...then all models lost it..and then the GFS finally sniffed it out again..correct? Yeah, that's how I remembered it. The ridge being a little far east, was a problem for this to be a blizzard. But I didn't really believe the OTS solution, that the models were showing 3 days before either. Then the statement by HPC on initialization errors, made everyone doubt the NCEP guidance 2 days before. Then the foreign models finally picked up on it the following night and day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 IIRC the gfs showed it on an 18z run the Friday before the storm, about 180 hours out and held on to it for a long time the euro showed it a few runs later until it lost it too Yeah, that's how I remembered it. The ridge being a little far east, was a problem for this to be a blizzard. But I didn't really believe the OTS solution, that the models were showing 3 days before either. Then the statement by HPC on initialization errors, made everyone doubt the NCEP guidance 2 days before. Then the foreign models finally picked up on it the following night and day. I don't remember the evolution because we were tracking the storm that nailed Cape Cod on the 20-21st. I can't remember exactly how it went. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 I don't remember the evolution because we were tracking the storm that nailed Cape Cod on the 20-21st. I can't remember exactly how it went. Trust me, it was the 18z run of the gfs on 12/17/11 that had a 500 low go from california to just under NYC that got the weenies stiring. I remember it because I had to leave work early with a migraine and I could barely drive home. I crawled into bed and couldnt get the model run out of my mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 20, 2011 Share Posted December 20, 2011 compared to what we have now this is the complete opposite. I need a time capsule Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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