TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 put the bar graphs down and look at the actual maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS says what -NAO you talking bout WILLIS!? rather volitile pattern after the huge cutoff low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS says what -NAO you talking bout WILLIS!? rather volitile pattern after the huge cutoff low.. but it def. cools down and we see cold air get on the eastern side of canada finally. Gotta watch that close 500 low. Looks like a vort comes down the back side, could pop something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadojay Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 At hour 177 on the GFS, there is actually a 150 knot wind barb at 500 mb in northern NY state.. that is rediculous. I don't recall ever seeing remotely that fast a wind speed at that pressure level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS says what -NAO you talking bout WILLIS!? rather volitile pattern after the huge cutoff low.. philly folks brag in nyc forum....must of finally somehow won a game recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 12z GFS says what -NAO you talking bout WILLIS!? rather volitile pattern after the huge cutoff low.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 gefs look stormy. Something big could easily happen between 180-220 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 ?? Haha someone is bitter. Just adding to the convo. Not Sure how me saying the gfs says no -NAO is weenish... But my point was that even though the CPC was showing a somewhat neutral to slightly negative NAO, the gfs says no way. That's about as unbiased of a breakdown as I can give. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 cmc's take on the trough for the end of the month this has potential if we can get something to swing around the base. Look at the ridge out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The problem is, the CPC is Forecasting 1 thing, the MJO says another... The CPC graphs also show that the NCEP ensembles have been way off forecasting a -AO and -NAO, so far this month. Especially out to day 10 and 14. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The CPC graphs also show that the NCEP ensembles have been way off forecasting a -AO and -NAO, so far this month. Especially out to day 10 and 14. This. Severe bias towards being too negative. I'll sell on that -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbc Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This. Severe bias towards being too negative. I'll sell on that -NAO. Maybe so but how about the PNA? I can deal with a +PNA with the unfavorable NAO. Wasn't 08-09 basically exactly that? Anyone have the NAO breakdown for that winter by month? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 I'm willing to go with lower 60s in NYC and 63-65 degrees near Newark next weekend... strong ridge, 850mb temps above 10c, and SW winds all support well above average temps. Even the cold biased GFS has upper 50s, and the DGEX FWIW already has widespread lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The only cool day of the next 7 looks to be Thanksgiving and even that is just near normal. We'll finish the month +3 at least. I'm willing to go with lower 60s in NYC and 63-65 degrees near Newark next weekend... strong ridge, 850mb temps above 10c, and SW winds all support well above average temps. Even the cold biased GFS has upper 50s, and the DGEX FWIW already has widespread lower 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 The only cool day of the next 7 looks to be Thanksgiving and even that is just near normal. We'll finish the month +3 at least. This should be the third 4-5 day torch event of the month so far, after the two 70-degree warm spells earlier this month. At this rate, we're easily going to finish the month well above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 This should be the third 4-5 day torch event of the month so far, after the two 70-degree warm spells earlier this month. At this rate, we're easily going to finish the month well above normal. Same thing happened the last 2 novembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles have a nice look to it for the long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Henry's fb paging jumping off clip it's funny lol I can't wait for cold and even a dusting of snow just to shut these people of!! This October snow ruined people they will be calling bust nov 1st for years!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 where can i find monthly temps up this point against the avg? looking all around noaa but no good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 22, 2011 Author Share Posted November 22, 2011 GGEM ensembles and the Euro ensembles have a nice look to it for the long range. euro do not look good ggem and gfs do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 euro do not look good ggem and gfs do. They definitely aren't as good as the GFS/CMC are... At hour 168, they are somewhat better, but get worse again by hour 240. There's only a transient ridge near eastern Canada moving out, with a west trough and rising heights in the east. At least it's somewhat better than what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 Accu wx changing the forecast to warm for northeast this winter GET THE SHOVELS READY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 18z gfs looks cold and wintry for the fantasy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 As i said 2 weeks ago, when everyone was predicting post turkey day cool down, this will be a warm winter, with maybe a few mediocre storms. Now we are looking at late december cool down...we had an exciting weather year, one of the best ever. Maybe its time to realize that the weather has been so "good" past decade because we werent used to so much snow in the past. Absence makes the heart grow fonder. A few bad years and then one great year, thats my prediction. A poor 2011-2012 and 2012-2013, but a great 2013-2014... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 How is this anything to complain about for a ten day forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 22, 2011 Share Posted November 22, 2011 How is this anything to complain about for a ten day forecast? 70" of snow per winter or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 70" of snow per winter or bust. I have not seen anyone call for 70 inches of snow.... Furthermore I for one would not be expecting to see any snow in the month of November... Quite frankly i would not be expecting to see any snow until mid to latter December... Anything that manages to fall before that time frame counts as bonus... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 where can i find monthly temps up this point against the avg? looking all around noaa but no good so far. My station is running about 3 degrees above normal this month based on my 35 years of record. With the generally mild pattern for the rest of the month this will probobly wind up as one of the warmest novembers on record for me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 where can i find monthly temps up this point against the avg? looking all around noaa but no good so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I have not seen anyone call for 70 inches of snow.... Furthermore I for one would not be expecting to see any snow in the month of November... Quite frankly i would not be expecting to see any snow until mid to latter December... Anything that manages to fall before that time frame counts as bonus... Lol it was a joke, playing on the fact that people may expect last winter again. My call a few weeks back was for Dec 15 to be the date when things start to flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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