gkrangers Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Lol it was a joke, playing on the fact that people may expect last winter again. My call a few weeks back was for Dec 15 to be the date when things start to flip. If we don't get a repeat of last winter it is squarely on your shoulders. Squarely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 18z gfs looks cold and wintry for the fantasy range. gefs look even better with several very cold members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 thanks... but text outputs for specific cities? i should have been more specific.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 got a funny feeling about this 500mb cutoff projected to cross the country. Any kind of phase with a northern stream system could really create some crazy solutions. Dec 92 was a cut off 500mb low stuck under neath a block in canada. Not calling for anything like that, just something to kepe in the back of the mind as we wait out this terrible stretch of boring weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Here is the phase in Dec 92 that started the ball rolling Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 another example of closed of 500 lows traversing the country. NAO was positive for this storm with the PNA ridge doing the hard work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 *****crickets***** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 *****crickets***** Wolf? Everyone is looking at your storm you predicted for turkey day, which is here now...did a jeb walk from my car to the house and got soaked. Wake me up in may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 Oh well at least some of us have the balls to make a call instead of Trolling. And I clearly said I wasn't calling for anything just pointing out how closed off vorts need to be watched Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Had a nice miserable drive home to monmouth from Villanova today. Pouring rain, the worst traffic I've ever seen, a 2 hour 30 min drive that's usually 1 hour 30 min. Sure as heck living up to its reputation as the biggest travel week. Who do these people think they are, driving on my roads. I thought the last two winters would at least make some people move outta here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Lol it was a joke, playing on the fact that people may expect last winter again. My call a few weeks back was for Dec 15 to be the date when things start to flip. If the pattern isn't better after dec 15th you do realize we can never show our faces on this board, or country for that matter, again. I will give up forecasting and move to Canada where I'll expect snow on the gorund by November 1st every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 My station is running about 3 degrees above normal this month based on my 35 years of record. With the generally mild pattern for the rest of the month this will probobly wind up as one of the warmest novembers on record for me. It's been so warm that the bugs are still out in droves. Killed three flies tonight and it's going to be December in a week. We haven't had a freeze in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
patrick05 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 It's been so warm that the bugs are still out in droves. Killed three flies tonight and it's going to be December in a week. We haven't had a freeze in weeks. We got down to 29f here a few days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 40 and rain cant ever get excited about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted November 23, 2011 Author Share Posted November 23, 2011 00z gfs trying to bring a strong vort down the back side of the closed off/cut off 500mb low next week. Nice ridge out west. Worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 00z gfs trying to bring a strong vort down the back side of the closed off/cut off 500mb low next week. Nice ridge out west. Worth watching. If were going to get cold/snow, it looks like its going to be through the PNA, the NAO is not going to give us any help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSuburbs Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 00z gfs trying to bring a strong vort down the back side of the closed off/cut off 500mb low next week. Nice ridge out west. Worth watching. It doesn't have any snowstorm for us, but a coastal low does form near Maine. Much nicer run FWIW, at least it keeps the strong cold air in place for more than 2 days without a strong SE ridge pushing in behind it. It's not the perfect pattern, but definitely an improvement over what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Alpha5 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 GFS dumps the arctic on us after that massive cutoff in the south-central moves out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
benfica356 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 00z gfs is also close with the 12/3 storm, but for that timeframe, the pattern has improved from what we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 If the pattern isn't better after dec 15th you do realize we can never show our faces on this board, or country for that matter, again. I will give up forecasting and move to Canada where I'll expect snow on the gorund by November 1st every year. So true. Our heads will be on a stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 0z GFS looks really sexy in the long range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Wow. Gorgeous PNA in the long range..Its something to watch atleast that ridge axis could not be more perfect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Let's see what ECMWF has to say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Wow. Gorgeous PNA in the long range..Its something to watch atleast that ridge axis could not be more perfect I agree, while we get no help from the atlantic, it's great to see the pacific fix itself on tonights GFS. It may be transient though, because it you look at the 300 plus hour panels, the AK vortex looks to strengthen and beat the PNA ridge down. That's in fantasy land, but this is a step in the right direction...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 Oh well at least some of us have the balls to make a call instead of Trolling. And I clearly said I wasn't calling for anything just pointing out how closed off vorts need to be watched its the BS thread dude...trolling doesnt exist here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 I agree, while we get no help from the atlantic, it's great to see the pacific fix itself on tonights GFS. It may be transient though, because it you look at the 300 plus hour panels, the AK vortex looks to strengthen and beat the PNA ridge down. That's in fantasy land, but this is a step in the right direction...... To be honest, the Atlantic is more important for us, see examples of January 1996, January 2005, December 2009, February 2010, December 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 To be honest, the Atlantic is more important for us, see examples of January 1996, January 2005, December 2009, February 2010, December 2010. The PNA is just as important. Check last year. I think at one point we had a -NAO and a -PNA. The -NAO didn't really help us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 To be honest, the Atlantic is more important for us, see examples of January 1996, January 2005, December 2009, February 2010, December 2010. I've always said I rather have an ok pacific and an awesome atlantic, than an awesome pacific and atrocious atlantic. Getting the AK vortex to weaken and pump a PNA ridge is still a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2011 Share Posted November 23, 2011 That PNA ridge is definitely going to bring the cold air in, but could it lead to early December snow? Maybe? There have been many times were the PNA was solely responsible for giving us a good storm. A nice positive PNA has more power than a weakly negative NAO in my opinion. A -PNA with a neutral or weak NAO isn't going to help, sometimes even a moderate -NAO can't overcome a negative PNA so the +PNA is a great step. I'm hoping we do get some high latitude blocking as it would greatly assist with us getting a storm. At least things are finally beginning to change to colder, but before that happens, expect at least another 7-10 days of very mild weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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