griteater Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 AO has been between +3.0 and +4.0 the past 4 days. As they say in Cumberland county, "that won't too good" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AcworthWx Posted December 28, 2011 Share Posted December 28, 2011 AO has been between +3.0 and +4.0 the past 4 days. As they say in Cumberland county, "that won't too good" Yeah, though it is nice to see the NAO trending towards negative and the PNA trending further positive. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/daily.index.ascii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 GFS is really showing the cold all the way past day 16. If it is right a lot of people's predictions for a above normal month (temp wise) will fail (maybe big). I know this is day 16 (18z), but this would be a major cold outbreak for the US: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Thought this was an interesting comment from DT... "I am NOT big fan of the JMA, but the Nogaps is MUCH improved .. MUCH improved. The Main reason is that it now uses more advanced " stuff" .... 4DVAR which is what the European Model uses... the Nogaps did a GREAT job with Irene and OCT 29-30 noreaster days 4-7 far better than the GFS. Its Not horrible anymore" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaffneyPeach Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 http://www.foxcarolina.com/story/16411515/looking-ahead-to-january Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 Not looking peachy in the extended...cold air remains bottled up over the arctic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 grit I agree we need to score with one of the next two systems, the med-long range looks ugly on the Euro for the US in general. There are grumblings that the Euro weeklies show the cold bottled up till at least the end of January after this quick hitting cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 29, 2011 Share Posted December 29, 2011 grit I agree we need to score with one of the next two systems, the med-long range looks ugly on the Euro for the US in general. There are grumblings that the Euro weeklies show the cold bottled up till at least the end of January after this quick hitting cold shot. Just like there was no cold to be found a few weeks ago for the first part of January. I don't give a lot of credence to the weeklies in a flow that is so changeable. Could it be warm, sure. Seems to be the pattern lately, but it doesn't mean there won't be any cold and/or opportunities for snow/ice. Just my two cents worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 6 straight days now that the AO as been greater than +3.0. So, we've had 2 very high runs of the AO in Dec. This one and the 5 day stretch earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 At least the gfs has finally been showing some real cold air over canada in the super long range, for the first time this season I believe. Of course it has to be taken with a grain of salt I know, but if it happens, Hopefully that will help out in the long run if it comes to pass. Sure beats having the cold air bottled up over the very far north/arctic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Just like there was no cold to be found a few weeks ago for the first part of January. I don't give a lot of credence to the weeklies in a flow that is so changeable. Could it be warm, sure. Seems to be the pattern lately, but it doesn't mean there won't be any cold and/or opportunities for snow/ice. Just my two cents worth. +1. Putting hopes or fears on anything out past a few days is an exercise in futility. Just something to watch when it is "out there". T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Just like there was no cold to be found a few weeks ago for the first part of January. I don't give a lot of credence to the weeklies in a flow that is so changeable. Could it be warm, sure. Seems to be the pattern lately, but it doesn't mean there won't be any cold and/or opportunities for snow/ice. Just my two cents worth. To be fair, yes we are going to have 2-3 days of some pretty well below normal air. But it's in and out and then all signs point to warmer than average for at least a couple more weeks, that to me looks pretty clear. The Euro weeklies have done pretty well, they predicted a blowtorch for December and that's what we got. They are predicting a warmer than average January right now and that could easily be correct. The cold is transient again, I agree it's going to be burr cold but it's so short lived. I still think that we are going to be mainly warm till at least mid January possibly till the last week of the month, I think January is going to be above average in general across the southeast, but nowhere near what we saw in December. It is going to take some warmer than average days to cancel out the arctic shot coming next week but I think it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Is there any word yet on whether next winter is expected to be a La Nina or not ? Or is it too early to say ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Just like there was no cold to be found a few weeks ago for the first part of January. I don't give a lot of credence to the weeklies in a flow that is so changeable. Could it be warm, sure. Seems to be the pattern lately, but it doesn't mean there won't be any cold and/or opportunities for snow/ice. Just my two cents worth. c'mon dude. There's a two day cold shot and now the models are suspect? Get real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Is there any word yet on whether next winter is expected to be a La Nina or not ? Or is it too early to say ? Probably to early to say for sure but I've read right now they're (don't know who "they" are) predicting a weak to moderate El Nino. I know I've heard that JB is predicting this also, so you can take that for what it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 To be fair, yes we are going to have 2-3 days of some pretty well below normal air. But it's in and out and then all signs point to warmer than average for at least a couple more weeks, that to me looks pretty clear. The Euro weeklies have done pretty well, they predicted a blowtorch for December and that's what we got. They are predicting a warmer than average January right now and that could easily be correct. The cold is transient again, I agree it's going to be burr cold but it's so short lived. I still think that we are going to be mainly warm till at least mid January possibly till the last week of the month, I think January is going to be above average in general across the southeast, but nowhere near what we saw in December. It is going to take some warmer than average days to cancel out the arctic shot coming next week but I think it happens. I agree Marietta...After this cold shot next week I don't see anything as far as cold goes. Like Marietta said above it's looking like atleast the middle of January or possibly the end of January before another cold shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I agree Marietta...After this cold shot next week I don't see anything as far as cold goes. Like Marietta said above it's looking like atleast the middle of January or possibly the end of January before another cold shot. Fine with me. If it isn't going to snow, bring on the blowtorch! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 From Don S. on front page. The failure of an Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) event to develop reinforces the idea of the AO will likely remain predominantly positive for quite some time. So SSW didn't happen, That alot of people was saying would change the pattern? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Fine with me. If it isn't going to snow, bring on the blowtorch! After the cold early week, you should get your wish. 12Z Euro retrogrades the Pacific ridge back off the west coast, AK is cold with a PV- no sign of cold at all probably through mid-month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 To be fair, yes we are going to have 2-3 days of some pretty well below normal air. But it's in and out and then all signs point to warmer than average for at least a couple more weeks, that to me looks pretty clear. The Euro weeklies have done pretty well, they predicted a blowtorch for December and that's what we got. They are predicting a warmer than average January right now and that could easily be correct. The cold is transient again, I agree it's going to be burr cold but it's so short lived. I still think that we are going to be mainly warm till at least mid January possibly till the last week of the month, I think January is going to be above average in general across the southeast, but nowhere near what we saw in December. It is going to take some warmer than average days to cancel out the arctic shot coming next week but I think it happens. I can't disagree with anything you say. In fact, I have agreed in prior posts that this cold shot looks transitory, BUT you can also have periods of cold in between and if timed right........snow and/or ice. That was my point. Long range forecasting is tough for a reason, things can turn rather quickly, even when it seems easy to toot the warm horn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 c'mon dude. There's a two day cold shot and now the models are suspect? Get real. Is it necessary to be a prick? I have already said this cold shot looks transitory. Who said anything about the models? My post was made because of the "beloved" weeklies. They can and do bust. Horribly at times. I could give you a ton of references, but you aren't worth that much time. Can we still have snow and ice in an otherwise warm pattern? Not likely, but sure. Happy New Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 To be fair, yes we are going to have 2-3 days of some pretty well below normal air. But it's in and out and then all signs point to warmer than average for at least a couple more weeks, that to me looks pretty clear. I agree Marietta...After this cold shot next week I don't see anything as far as cold goes. Like Marietta said above it's looking like atleast the middle of January or possibly the end of January before another cold shot. Where are you guys getting all this warmth? After next weeks 4 days of well below normal air, we get to a couple days of slightly above before the clouds and westerly and nw flow kicks in again. Atleast on GFS and ECMWF thats whats showing. And nothing like what happened in Dec, where we had a week of well above normal with strong southerly/sw flow. It looks nothing like the +20 for few days we had then. 6 straight days now that the AO as been greater than +3.0. So, we've had 2 very high runs of the AO in Dec. This one and the 5 day stretch earlier in the month. Despite that we have a strong cold blast next week. I don't mean you but I think some folks are seeing the height anomalies at day 10 and seeing that as being a daily occurrence. Not many models 7 days ago showed the huge departures we have coming in 3 days. I can't comment on Euro weeklies because I don't see those. What I have noticed all season is that we tend to get cold shots, regardless. This one just happens to be the first really major one. And we had a warm December thanks to a series of Southwest lows and strong s/w flow, but now the models are hinting that we'll be in a progressive flow and being proned to more west to east flow, which is a gradual cool down, and they seem to miss the big eastern trough amplications too often. We're pretty changeable, nothing is sustained. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 Where are you guys getting all this warmth? After next weeks 4 days of well below normal air, we get to a couple days of slightly above before the clouds and westerly and nw flow kicks in again. Atleast on GFS and ECMWF thats whats showing. And nothing like what happened in Dec, where we had a week of well above normal with strong southerly/sw flow. It looks nothing like the +20 for few days we had then. To be fair Robert, the rest of my post went on to say I did not think it would be anywhere near the + anomalies we saw in December. The GFS shows a string of above normal temps after the cool down. Mid 50's to Low 60's in January will put a pretty big dent in the arctic shot we get. The overnight lows on the models also look to be on the above average side here and there too with some seasonal values also. (This is all after the nasty cold shot) The major indices are not changing in our favor. It's hard to see any cold temps in our future when the models don't show them and the teleconections are not good either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cheeznado Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 To be fair Robert, the rest of my post went on to say I did not think it would be anywhere near the + anomalies we saw in December. The GFS shows a string of above normal temps after the cool down. Mid 50's to Low 60's in January will put a pretty big dent in the arctic shot we get. The overnight lows on the models also look to be on the above average side here and there too with some seasonal values also. (This is all after the nasty cold shot) The major indices are not changing in our favor. It's hard to see any cold temps in our future when the models don't show them and the teleconections are not good either. I agree, looking at the 12Z Euro Ens- we have above normal 500mb heights all the way through day 16- a brief cool shot day 10 or so but I see no sign of any cold air of the magnitude of the early next week event. The big player here is the EPAC ridge, there is a strong signal that it will be flat and well off the coast, not a recipe for cold in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 To be fair Robert, the rest of my post went on to say I did not think it would be anytwhere near the + anomalies we saw in December. The GFS shows a string of above normal temps after the cool down. Upper 50's to Low 60's in January will put a pretty big dent in the arctic shot we get. The overnight lows on the models also look to be pretty above average. (This is all after the nasty cold shot) The major indices are not changing in our favor. It's hard to see any cold temps in our future when the models don't show them and the teleconections are not good either. This is a perfect example to look out the window and observe current, actual weather. For example, it should be upper 50s now in GSP and here, but its low 50s with light rain. I'm not sure what it is where you are, but this kind of thing has happened a lot this season. I won't deny the record warmth for a while in December, but that was with a period of strong bermuda ridging and sw flow aloft. No models are really showing that right now, so I'd take any future extreme heat with a grain of salt. Now if beyond 10 days we get the mother lode of Arctic to drop into the West, we'd get super warm . Thats possible, but way out there. And really anything is possible beyond 10 days, from a massive arctic outbreak to average. The point is I wouldn't take MOS numbers at face value beyond the next 5 days. The fact that some ridging keeps showing up past 7 days out west is a great sign in my opinion that the east will not get out of control warmth...slightly above is possible though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 I agree, looking at the 12Z Euro Ens- we have above normal 500mb heights all the way through day 16- a brief cool shot day 10 or so but I see no sign of any cold air of the magnitude of the early next week event. The big player here is the EPAC ridge, there is a strong signal that it will be flat and well off the coast, not a recipe for cold in the SE. Who's saying we will go 20 degrees below normal again after next week's cold outbreak? And why would you assume the Euro ensembles as anything other than another piece of average model advice? I mean look how they missed whats coming up for next week? I'd certainly take things as they come and with a major grain of salt. We don't have strong bermuda ridging anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowless in Carrollton Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 FFC is saying we will once again be well above normal by the end of next week. Quick shot of cooler air then we are back in the heat again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 FFC is saying we will once again be well above normal by the end of next week. Quick shot of cooler air then we are back in the heat again. Isn't FFC the ones ya'll complain about all the time, that they can't get anything right? Just saying! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 This is a perfect example to look out the window and observe current, actual weather. For example, it should be upper 50s now in GSP and here, but its low 50s with light rain. I'm not sure what it is where you are, but this kind of thing has happened a lot this season. I won't deny the record warmth for a while in December, but that was with a period of strong bermuda ridging and sw flow aloft. No models are really showing that right now, so I'd take any future extreme heat with a grain of salt. Now if beyond 10 days we get the mother lode of Arctic to drop into the West, we'd get super warm . Thats possible, but way out there. And really anything is possible beyond 10 days, from a massive arctic outbreak to average. The point is I wouldn't take MOS numbers at face value beyond the next 5 days. The fact that some ridging keeps showing up past 7 days out west is a great sign in my opinion that the east will not get out of control warmth...slightly above is possible though. So we won't have above average temps past 10 days? I'm trying to look for hope of salvaging this winter, winter precip wise, but can't find it. What do you see that signals a winter precip type pattern in the near future? I do appreciate your optimism about possible winter prospects though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FoothillsNC Posted December 30, 2011 Share Posted December 30, 2011 So we won't have above average temps past 10 days? I'm trying to look for hope of salvaging this winter, winter precip wise, but can't find it. What do you see that signals a winter precip type pattern in the near future? I do appreciate your optimism about possible winter prospects though! I didn't say we wont go above average on temps past 10 days.Of course we will...no sustained anything. If youre looking for hope on salvaging the Winter, take a good look at the cold outbreak for next week, that wasn't there a few days ago. Thats what I've been talking about. In addition to other things I've said in the past couple of months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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