Thundersnow12 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 After thinking about it for a short time this morning, I decided not to chase for a few reasons. Ya I wouldn't of either even if I was completely free today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 18z mesoanalysis has a small pocket of 1000 MLCAPE southeast of St Louis with 500+ over most of central and southern IL/IN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Temp is up to 72 with overcast skies. If the sun came out I'd def. be a bit more worried. If the sun came out then we'd run the risk of too much warming and LCL's getting too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2314 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1227 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MO...SRN IL/IND...NERN AR AND WRN KY... CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141827Z - 142030Z ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND A WATCH COULD BE CONSIDERED. SATELLITE AND RADAR SHOW AN ISOLATED STORM OVER SERN MO ON THE DRYLINE WHERE TEMPERATURES HAVE RISEN INTO THE MID 70S F. INSTABILITY IS A BIT MARGINAL...BUT CONTINUED HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AS WELL AS CONVERGENCE ON THE DRYLINE...MAY RESULT IN A FEW MORE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ORGANIZATION INTO SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY. ..JEWELL.. 11/14/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 18z mesoanalysis has a small pocket of 1000 MLCAPE southeast of St Louis with 500+ over most of central and southern IL/IN. 70 Here close to Columbus,OH..and the sun is off and on..Dew point @58..not bad for Nov. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 76 here in Louisville with mostly overcast... the sun is trying to break through in spots, but that is few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Unofficially 74° in Anderson. Sent from my ADR6400L Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Way too much storm competition right now. Every time a cell starts to look good along the line it quickly gets overtaken by a cell to the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Way too much storm competition right now. Every time a cell starts to look good along the line it quickly gets overtaken by a cell to the southwest. Yeah looks that way. Shouldn't be too long until the line(s) moves its way through here. Up to 71/61 at LAF at 2PM. Meanwhile it's in the middle 40's not too far to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Way too much storm competition right now. Every time a cell starts to look good along the line it quickly gets overtaken by a cell to the southwest. Of course as soon as I say that a tornado warning comes out lol. This is gonna be one of those days where we're gonna have to look at velocity scans very closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Mahomet (Champaign county) just gusted to 76 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Mahomet (Champaign county) just gusted to 76 mph. Rotation with the tor warned cell went right through that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 First post here. Strong line of storms in Northern Illinois/Indiana. Can't say I completely agree with a strong tornado threat due to the fact that this will likely be a QLCS, which tend to spawn weaker tornadoes. There have been exceptions such as Richmond, Kentucky 2009 (EF3), Eminence, Kentucky 2010 (EF3), and Cordova, Alabama 2010 (High end EF3) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Mahomet (Champaign county) just gusted to 76 mph. impressive little line getting going down there, wouldn't mind being back in the CU now, great chase land too. Some nice back building with that line, so the CU area might be under the gun shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 215 PM EST MON NOV 14 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... BENTON COUNTY... SOUTHWESTERN JASPER COUNTY... * UNTIL 245 PM EST/145 PM CST/ * AT 211 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FREELAND PARK...AND MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 Tornado reported in Mahomet. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 116 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 0108 PM TORNADO MAHOMET 40.19N 88.40W 11/14/2011 CHAMPAIGN IL PUBLIC ONE HOUSE DAMAGED AND SEVERAL TREES DOWN FROM TORNADO IN LAKE OF THE WOODS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 I'm stopped east of Indy on 70. Rainy and cloudy here. Thinking of canceling my chase considering the fast speeds and QLCS-ish nature of the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 14, 2011 Author Share Posted November 14, 2011 New tornado warning out in northern Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Tornado reported in Mahomet. Hoopeston cell looks like our best bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 The former Mahomet cell looks the best out of any right now, as it heads towards Potomac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 U.S. 24 area in Indiana does look to be the heart of the battleground. 46 degrees with north wind IMBY with several good t storms with heavy rain over the noon hour. 67/60 with sw wind at Ft. Wayne. Quite the contrast over the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 ...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 300 PM EST/200 PM CST/ FOR WHITE COUNTY... AT 237 PM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUED TO INDICATE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WITH STRONG ROTATION. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES SOUTH OF WOLCOTT...OR ABOUT 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MONTICELLO...AND MOVING EAST AT 60 MPH. LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE... MONTICELLO... OTHER LOCATIONS IMPACTED BY THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM INCLUDE SMITHSON...REYNOLDS...NORWAY...IDAVILLE AND BURNETTSVILLE. A RAIN WRAPPED FUNNEL CLOUD WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM. A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM EST MONDAY EVENING/700 PM CST MONDAY EVENING/ FOR NORTHERN INDIANA AND NORTHWESTERN OHIO. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... HEAVY RAINFALL MAY OBSCURE THIS TORNADO. TAKE COVER NOW! IF YOU WAIT TO SEE OR HEAR IT COMING...IT MAY BE TOO LATE TO GET TO A SAFE PLACE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeye05 Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Discrete activity trying to form near Indianapolis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Discrete activity trying to form near Indianapolis? That most definitely will need to be monitored as it moves ne ahead of the main line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Wunderground radar picking up a tornado vortex signature over Lake Erie in a cluster of thunderstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Definitely picking up some rotation with that cell. This is at 1.45 degrees of elevation though, because it's so far from the radar site. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 Wunderground radar picking up a tornado vortex signature over Lake Erie in a cluster of thunderstorms. That cell right over Leamington is making a beeline for my town. Thunderstorms were the last thing I would have expected after we got snow the other day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 LAF area looks to be rockin and rollin in near future with confirmed funnel cloud per warning west of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 ...20Z OUTLOOK UPDATE... ...OHIO VALLEY... GIVEN THE LACK OF STRONGER MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SEVERE PROBABILITIES...AS CURRENTLY DEPICTED IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE WAVE MIGRATING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY...MAY BE A BIT HIGH. HOWEVER...THE HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR SCATTERED VIGOROUS BOUNDARY LAYER BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MISSOURI AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS INTO OHIO BETWEEN NOW AND 01-02Z. THE LATEST RUC GUIDANCE DOES INDICATE THAT INHIBITION IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY NEGLIGIBLE FOR MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS CHARACTERIZED BY CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500 J/KG ACROSS THIS REGION. AND...WIND PROFILES STILL CHARACTERIZED BY STRONG DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND LARGE CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF ENHANCED TORNADIC/WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH ANY DEVELOPING STORMS. PRIOR OUTLOOK IS GENERALLY BEING MAINTAINED AS IS DUE TO UNCERTAINTY...BUT GREATEST SEVERE POTENTIAL MAY BE CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND OHIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted November 14, 2011 Share Posted November 14, 2011 New mesoscale discussion issued for northern and central Ohio... tornado watch is probably forthcoming. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2315 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0157 PM CST MON NOV 14 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 141957Z - 142100Z SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DMGG WINDS...HAIL...AND PERHAPS TORNADOES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME. AN AREAL EXTENSION IN WW879 MAY BE NEEDED OVER WRN OH...WHILE A NEW WW MAY BE ISSUED ACROSS NRN OH. DOWNSTREAM OF THE CURRENT CONVECTION ACROSS CNTRL IL AND NRN IND...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES TO RAPIDLY DESTABILIZE...WITH 70 F TEMPERATURES NOTED ACROSS CNTRL OH AS OF 20Z. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS NEAR 1 MB AN HOUR HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS CNTRL/ERN OH...WITH THE LOW CENTER QUICKLY DEVELOPING EWD...SUBJECTIVELY ANALYZED NEAR THE MI/IND/OH BORDER AT 19Z. AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DEVELOP EWD WITH TIME...AN ATTENDANT THREAT OF SURFACE-BASED CONVECTION WILL BE POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS LIMITED TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL FEATURE...LARGER SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GIVEN AREAS OF CLOUD COVER MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR AS FURTHER DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES. ..HURLBUT.. 11/14/2011 ATTN...WFO...PBZ...CLE...ILN...IWX... LAT...LON 41398343 41298195 41268136 40978073 40518097 40028213 39768326 40238408 41008398 41398343 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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