Steve Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Here we go again..another winter..another forum for our viewing pleasure..Let's keep it fun and clean and civil!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 We already have a winter speculation thread. This seems a little redundant unless I'm missing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 We already have a winter speculation thread. This seems a little redundant unless I'm missing something. I have made this thread 4 years now..We all in Ohio like it.. Plus i am always asked to keep it going.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 We already have a winter speculation thread. This seems a little redundant unless I'm missing something. If it contains OH posters I'm all for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 I have made this thread 4 years now..We all in Ohio like it.. Plus i am always asked to keep it going.. If the OV folks want their own general winter thread then that is ok. I wasn't sure if you meant this to be a winter forecast thread which we already have. Guess I had a temporary brain freeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 25, 2011 Author Share Posted October 25, 2011 If the OV folks want their own general winter thread then that is ok. I wasn't sure if you meant this to be a winter forecast thread which we already have. Guess I had a temporary brain freeze. Just a general talk all about the winter thread.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If it contains OH posters I'm all for it. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 If it contains OH posters I'm all for it. Agreed. Seriously guys, can we keep the flame fanning in OT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Seriously guys, can we keep the flame fanning in OT. Done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted October 25, 2011 Share Posted October 25, 2011 Let's talk winter?! We still need our first freeze here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Seriously guys, can we keep the flame fanning in OT. Agreed. I don't even know why I post on this board anymore. Yes, there is a poster or two from somewhere in Ohio who trolls, but the constant blame all Ohio posters is getting old after several seasons. Enough so that it's pushed several posters who offer great analysis and even a pro met off the boards for good. Thanks guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Have seen frost 2/3 nights here to the southeast of Cleveland. October 23rd is a little late for our first frost as a lot of areas typically freeze by then around here, but it's a start. CLE still has some snow mixing in Thursday-Saturday nights mainly in the higher elevations to the east of Cleveland. Nothing significant, but enough to get us in the mood, which is all you can ask in October. The graphical forecasts show that NWS Pittsburgh is also expecting some light snows over southeast OH Friday night as a wave rides along the front well to the south, could be cold enough that parts of Wilmington's CWA might also see some mangled flakes mix in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Here we go again..another winter..another forum for our viewing pleasure..Let's keep it fun and clean and civil!! Good to see everyone again. Looking forward to the posts and chatter this winter. I am excited about all the winter forecasts out there, but am trying to temper that excitement b/c as we all know, they can BUST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 Have seen frost 2/3 nights here to the southeast of Cleveland. October 23rd is a little late for our first frost as a lot of areas typically freeze by then around here, but it's a start. CLE still has some snow mixing in Thursday-Saturday nights mainly in the higher elevations to the east of Cleveland. Nothing significant, but enough to get us in the mood, which is all you can ask in October. The graphical forecasts show that NWS Pittsburgh is also expecting some light snows over southeast OH Friday night as a wave rides along the front well to the south, could be cold enough that parts of Wilmington's CWA might also see some mangled flakes mix in. There has been some frost on the rooftops but that's been it. This doesn't seem too out of the ordinary... but I'm a little closer to the lake than you. Hopefully we'll see a few flakes later in the week. I wouldn't mind seeing a front loaded winter for a change... it's been awhile since we've had a snowy Nov/Dec. Early season LES events are always interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 There has been some frost on the rooftops but that's been it. This doesn't seem too out of the ordinary... but I'm a little closer to the lake than you. Hopefully we'll see a few flakes later in the week. I wouldn't mind seeing a front loaded winter for a change... it's been awhile since we've had a snowy Nov/Dec. Early season LES events are always interesting. A little taste of November 1996 would be nice. The lack of a freeze is nothing unusual close to the lake though, but I suspect that CLE is going to be a bit later than the avg of Oct 25. The latest at the airport is November 12, so a long way to go. BKL can easily make it to December with just a freeze or two the entire month of November. Sometimes, the lakeshore can have snow before the first feeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 A little taste of November 1996 would be nice. The lack of a freeze is nothing unusual close to the lake though, but I suspect that CLE is going to be a bit later than the avg of Oct 25. The latest at the airport is November 12, so a long way to go. BKL can easily make it to December with just a freeze or two the entire month of November. Sometimes, the lakeshore can have snow before the first feeze. I was just looking at info on Nov '96 this morning... that may be a once in a lifetime event. There have a been a few years that I can remember snow without having a frost first. A lot of the forecasts are calling for it to be cold and snowy in the Ohio Valley. Hopefully this winter delivers. I could certainly see areas from Central MI down to N KY and on Northeast cashing in with big snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve Posted October 26, 2011 Author Share Posted October 26, 2011 We have had frost here..1 or 2 nights..We have been down to around 30 here..Looking forward to all the talk this winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It looks like our best shot at snow in OH out of this whole ordeal will probably be late this afternoon and into this evening in the higher elevations to the south and east of Cleveland as the 850mb temps drop to -3 to -4 and while there is still some synoptic moisture in the area. Model skew-ts are showing wetbulb 0's down to around 1800 feet by this evening, so it's not unreasonable to assume that with some steadier or decent precip rates a little frozen precip may make it to the ground above 1000 feet in that relatively short window this evening. There will also be some moisture into the snow growth region through about 0z before the synoptic moisture really pulls out, which means if we do get cold enough some snow may actually fall, instead of just seeing drizzle due to the moisture being trapped/limited to the lowest part of the atmosphere. Overnight, the atmosphere will really dry out. There will be enough instability for lake effect processes as the NAM skew-t above shows, but my guess is any precipitation will be widely scattered in nature, although I suppose a widely scattered rain/snow shower will be possible in north-central to northeast OH overnight given some decent lake induced instability. Temperatures will already be in the lower 40s over the northern portions of the state by sundown, so where things can clear overnight there should easily be a freeze. CLE will probably need freeze warnings for the vast majority of its CWA, with the only possible exceptions being the lake shore and perhaps the Snow Belt where some cloud cover may hang on overnight, although it will only take a few hours of clearing for temps there to fall below freezing given the airmass in place and high pressure overhead, meaning a very light boundary layer flow. My guess is areas outside of Columbus, Dayton and maybe even the northern/eastern suburbs of Cincinnati will get cold enough for frost as well, so a cold night for much of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 It looks like our best shot at snow in OH out of this whole ordeal will probably be late this afternoon and into this evening in the higher elevations to the south and east of Cleveland as the 850mb temps drop to -3 to -4 and while there is still some synoptic moisture in the area. Model skew-ts are showing wetbulb 0's down to around 1800 feet by this evening, so it's not unreasonable to assume that with some steadier or decent precip rates a little frozen precip may make it to the ground above 1000 feet in that relatively short window this evening. There will also be some moisture into the snow growth region through about 0z before the synoptic moisture really pulls out, which means if we do get cold enough some snow may actually fall, instead of just seeing drizzle due to the moisture being trapped/limited to the lowest part of the atmosphere. Overnight, the atmosphere will really dry out. There will be enough instability for lake effect processes as the NAM skew-t above shows, but my guess is any precipitation will be widely scattered in nature, although I suppose a widely scattered rain/snow shower will be possible in north-central to northeast OH overnight given some decent lake induced instability. Temperatures will already be in the lower 40s over the northern portions of the state by sundown, so where things can clear overnight there should easily be a freeze. CLE will probably need freeze warnings for the vast majority of its CWA, with the only possible exceptions being the lake shore and perhaps the Snow Belt where some cloud cover may hang on overnight, although it will only take a few hours of clearing for temps there to fall below freezing given the airmass in place and high pressure overhead, meaning a very light boundary layer flow. My guess is areas outside of Columbus, Dayton and maybe even the northern/eastern suburbs of Cincinnati will get cold enough for frost as well, so a cold night for much of the state. Yep, definitely looks good for a frost/freeze over much of Ohio the next few nights. NE lakeshore area will probably not clear out tonight however. Everything is pretty much dead/dormant so the official end to the growing season is just a technicality at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yep, definitely looks good for a frost/freeze over much of Ohio the next few nights. NE lakeshore area will probably not clear out tonight however. Everything is pretty much dead/dormant so the official end to the growing season is just a technicality at this point. Ya. At this point (with most of the leaves down and not much green, except for lawns which will not be so perky after the next few nights) just want to get snow in here as fast as possible, hate staring at bare vegetation with cloudy, rainy skies and temps in the 40s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Ya. At this point (with most of the leaves down and not much green, except for lawns which will not be so perky after the next few nights) just want to get snow in here as fast as possible, hate staring at bare vegetation with cloudy, rainy skies and temps in the 40s. Well, the wait for snow might not be too long looking at the GFS, and to some extent the Euro. The GFS is showing 850's at -6 to -8 later next week. That would certainly support snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Yep, definitely looks good for a frost/freeze over much of Ohio the next few nights. NE lakeshore area will probably not clear out tonight however. Everything is pretty much dead/dormant so the official end to the growing season is just a technicality at this point. Yeah. I was quite surprised to see a frost advisory out for tomorrow morning. It's October 28th, does one really need to be warned this late in the season that a frost might occur? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Well, the wait for snow might not be too long looking at the GFS, and to some extent the Euro. The GFS is showing 850's at -6 to -8 later next week. That would certainly support snow. With the impending rare east coast snowstorm this Saturday, I can't help but think there'll be some LES bands developing with snow over the higher terrain or at least some scattered snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be NW, with 850's around -5, and moisture being thrown back. A slightly more west track up the coast would be better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nic Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 With the impending rare east coast snowstorm this Saturday, I can't help but think there'll be some LES bands developing with snow over the higher terrain or at least some scattered snow showers Saturday night into Sunday. Winds will be NW, with 850's around -5, and moisture being thrown back. A slightly more west track up the coast would be better. You might get that the way the models have trended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Yeah. I was quite surprised to see a frost advisory out for tomorrow morning. It's October 28th, does one really need to be warned this late in the season that a frost might occur? Good call by OHWeather re: the clearing last night. I was surprised it cleared out so rapidly. Everything was covered in frost this morning. Temp went down to 32 IMBY. I guess that will be the last frost advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Another top ten rainiest month at CLE. Currently we are in 5th place at 5.84", but 4th is 5.85", and 3rd is 5.88" so any passing shower will bump us up. Some of the high res models are picking up some showers overnight Saturday. I still think places like Chardon will get some flakes out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Another top ten rainiest month at CLE. Currently we are in 5th place at 5.84", but 4th is 5.85", and 3rd is 5.88" so any passing shower will bump us up. Some of the high res models are picking up some showers overnight Saturday. I still think places like Chardon will get some flakes out of this. Yep. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few snow showers around Saturday night. It's way out in lala land... but late next week things could get interesting around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 Good call by OHWeather re: the clearing last night. I was surprised it cleared out so rapidly. Everything was covered in frost this morning. Temp went down to 32 IMBY. I guess that will be the last frost advisory. I thought it might take longer, but once the rain shield moved out the clearing was literally right behind it. No real lake response. Their was frost on my car at 9pm when I left, was quite surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted October 29, 2011 Share Posted October 29, 2011 It's snowing lightly at Akron/Canton, with a light rain/snow mix at Youngstown on the backside of the Nor'easter. Very close. I doubt the synoptic snows affect greater Cleveland, although there will be some nice lift as a shortwave moves overhead today. Given the cold air aloft some grauple could fall if some showers pop up like what happened over MI yesterday. Another fairly widespread freeze as well this morning, I suspect we are done with frost/freeze headlines till spring as was discussed yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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